2020 Redistricting in Arizona

[Antonio the Sixth]

This map looks horrible. Democrats could easily end up with just 2 seats.

[Antonio the Sixth]

This map looks horrible. Democrats could easily end up with just 2 seats.

Eh that’s a stretch. Seems like in this map AZ-7 could fall but only if everything goes wrong for Dems; 3 and 4 are safe. On the flip side 8 and 2 could fall for the GOP in a bad cycle so i would argue it’s pretty fair in terms of partinsahip, I’m just disappointed they didn’t make more highly competitive seats

I assume this is the map, right? https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-2022-maps/arizona/draft_7_1/

4 sure doesn't look safe lol, it's literally an even PVI

[Antonio the Sixth]

This map looks horrible. Democrats could easily end up with just 2 seats.

Eh that’s a stretch. Seems like in this map AZ-7 could fall but only if everything goes wrong for Dems; 3 and 4 are safe. On the flip side 8 and 2 could fall for the GOP in a bad cycle so i would argue it’s pretty fair in terms of partinsahip, I’m just disappointed they didn’t make more highly competitive seats

I assume this is the map, right? https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-2022-maps/arizona/draft_7_1/

4 sure doesn't look safe lol, it's literally an even PVI

Dang your right it looks safer than it is. Prolly becomes safe by the end of decade and Biden prolly won it by about 8 or so in 2020.

We should be careful assuming that 2020 trends will carry out indefinitely. Maybe they will, or maybe they'll actually slide back.

Either way, this map is awful even for a state that's R-leaning.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Yeah, this is obviously rigged for the GOP as much as (or more than) it was rigged for the Dems in 2010. Both are bad, of course, but making a competitive state 6-2-1 is especially egregious.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Yeah, this is obviously rigged for the GOP as much as (or more than) it was rigged for the Dems in 2010. Both are bad, of course, but making a competitive state 6-2-1 is especially egregious.

How is it 6 2 1?


Arizona suburban Ds barely ran behind Biden.

I'm looking at PVI, which is the only actually objective metric we have. I had a whole quote pyramid in another thread about all the subjective guesswork nonsense people put into their analysis of these maps and I'm not relitigating this point again.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Yeah, this is obviously rigged for the GOP as much as (or more than) it was rigged for the Dems in 2010. Both are bad, of course, but making a competitive state 6-2-1 is especially egregious.

How is it 6 2 1?


Arizona suburban Ds barely ran behind Biden.

I'm looking at PVI, which is the only actually objective metric we have. I had a whole quote pyramid in another thread about all the subjective guesswork nonsense people put into their analysis of these maps and I'm not relitigating this point again.

538 PVI seems to assume AZ is an R + 8 state or so rather than a true tossup. 6R - 3D on average in an R + 8 state seems p fair. I think the bigger argument would be that in 2016 Pres when AZ was close it was 7R - 2D which definately isn’t fair.

Do you have info on how 538 calculates the PVI? I assumed it was an average of 2016 and 2020, but that would be around R+5. Maybe they include local races (which is pretty dumb if so since there's no way to normalize that to a national baseline, but whatever). Either way, it's pretty transparent that this is a gerrymander.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Yeah, this is obviously rigged for the GOP as much as (or more than) it was rigged for the Dems in 2010. Both are bad, of course, but making a competitive state 6-2-1 is especially egregious.

How is it 6 2 1?


Arizona suburban Ds barely ran behind Biden.

I'm looking at PVI, which is the only actually objective metric we have. I had a whole quote pyramid in another thread about all the subjective guesswork nonsense people put into their analysis of these maps and I'm not relitigating this point again.

538 PVI seems to assume AZ is an R + 8 state or so rather than a true tossup. 6R - 3D on average in an R + 8 state seems p fair. I think the bigger argument would be that in 2016 Pres when AZ was close it was 7R - 2D which definately isn’t fair.

Do you have info on how 538 calculates the PVI? I assumed it was an average of 2016 and 2020, but that would be around R+5. Maybe they include local races (which is pretty dumb if so since there's no way to normalize that to a national baseline, but whatever). Either way, it's pretty transparent that this is a gerrymander.

Iirc 25% comes from state legislative

Ah. That is kind of iffy methodologically, and it might skew the AZ results slightly. But still, this remains egregious.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Dems once again got rolled and took it lying down. Absolutely pathetic.