Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Our Time to Schlein

[Antonio the Sixth]

If you just look at the support for each of the parties it is clear the Right-wing bloc is in very good shape with the only worry being how effective is vote transfer.  On that, question: How prominent is the party ID of the candidate in the FPTP races on the ballots?  Namely, if the voter is just presented with a ballot of alliances with a choice of voting for the party of his or her choice and the party ID of the alliance candidate is not made clear or prominent then that would be very good news for the Right-wing alliance given the lead of the sum of their party support in polls.

There is one vote for both seats as strange as this sounds. People vote for a party for the list seat and whatever electoral alliance the party is in is where their vote goes for the FPTP seat. To give an example, someone may vote PD for the list seat and then their FPTP vote goes to whoever was the centre-left candidate in that constituency. Also, the candidate for the FPTP seat is listed on the ballot as are the party lists for the list seats.

the strange it's not this, if you vote alist that support a FPTP candidate, the vote go also to him, the strange it's the inverse if you vote the FPTP candidate your vote go to the list that support him, proportionally to their actual votes

Yeah. This has to be one of the stupidest, ugliest electoral systems ever designed. But we're stuck with it thanks to Renzi.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Yesterday Adinolfi (Alternative for Italy) announced he was able to collect the minimum amount of signatures required in order to run for the election. He also stated that he's trying to be safe by collecting some more signs. The list is composed by the People of Family led by Adinolfi and Exit, a new eurosceptic party founded by the former leader of CasaPound, Simone Di Stefano.
Currently there are six eurosceptic / no-vax party collecting signatures: Vita, led by Sara Cunial and other people, Strength of the People (FdP), Italexit, Unione per le cure, i diritti e le libertà, Sovereign and Popular Italy and Alternative for Italy, as I mentioned before.

Well, glad there will be a few spoiled votes on the right too (though not nearly as many as on the left).

[Antonio the Sixth]

Very off topic, but it's so weird how during the 20th century Italy produced so much of world's cutting-edge graphic design (and design in general, of course) and yet 90% of these symbols look like they're from a 1995 middle school project – as does the official notice above them and election night graphics on every TV channel. Like, why?

You're an out of touch elite, I'm afraid

Would this be more to taste of ordinary Italians?

Salvini links up with Eiffel 65 to make a new version of the "Blue (Da Ba Dee)" video where he shoots PlayStation 1 renders of Albanians

(Green of course being Lega's color)

[Antonio the Sixth]

Gonna pick up my polling average even though the amount of polling we're getting right now is really pathetic for being a month before a national election. Only 5 polls conducted within the past week, so take it with a lot of salt. Also the lists still aren't officially finalized, but they might as well be.

PD 23.8%
FdI 23.7%
Lega 13.2%
M5S 11.2%
FI 8.2%
A/IV 5.4%
AVS 3.3%
Italexit 2.3%
+E 2.1%
NM 1.9%
IC 0.8%

Right at 47%, Left at 30%. Lovely stuff all around.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Gonna pick up my polling average even though the amount of polling we're getting right now is really pathetic for being a month before a national election. Only 5 polls conducted within the past week, so take it with a lot of salt. Also the lists still aren't officially finalized, but they might as well be.

PD 23.8%
FdI 23.7%
Lega 13.2%
M5S 11.2%
FI 8.2%
A/IV 5.4%
AVS 3.3%
Italexit 2.3%
+E 2.1%
NM 1.9%
IC 0.8%

Right at 47%, Left at 30%. Lovely stuff all around.

It would be easier to get an overview if you divided the parties into right, left and others rather than just list them all in descending order. I think I'm not the only one who can't remember which side all the small ones are on.

I mean that's why I add them up at the end. But sure, I can do that.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Can someone more knowledgeable than I explain why AVS didn’t support the Draghi government yet are happy to work with PD? Was it not wanting to support a government containing the right?

Basically? I mean, really, it's not like the Draghi government ever had anything to offer to that side of the political spectrum. It's okay for PD because PD is an ~Institutionalist~ party first and a vaguely center-left-ish party (if you squint) second, but obviously that's not the case with AVS.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Isn't Letta ex-DC

Yes, but it doesn't matter much [or at any rate, less than allying with AVS, his personal feud with Renzi, the general direction of the party and so on]. It does make this even more hilarious though.

Yeah, these days the old "ex DC vs ex PCI" divide doesn't really explain PD factional politics that well. There are tons of ex-PCI types who have turned into shameless neolibs, and even a few ex-DC who are pretty left-wing (like Rosy Bindi back in her days).

[Antonio the Sixth]

Once again not that many polls this week - just six conducted since last Saturday. Pretty amazing when you consider we're 4 weeks away from the election and just 2 weeks away from the polling ban. Anyway, not much new under the sun.

FdI: 24.6%
Lega: 13.3%
FI: 7.9%
NM: 1.1% (1.6% when polled)
Total Right: 46.9%

PD: 22.5%
AVS: 3.2%
+E: 1.6% (1.9% when polled)
IC: 0.5% (0.8% when polled)
Total Center-Left: 27.8%

M5S: 11.1%

A-IV: 6.0%

Italexit: 2.7%

UP: 0.4% (1.2% when polled)

Compared to last week's average, the right is 0.1 down, the left is 2.2% down (f**king put a bullet in my head), M5S is 0.1 down, and A-IV is 0.6 up (please end it now). So surprisingly there are more undecideds than last week, although it might just be an artifact of the pollsters.

[Antonio the Sixth]

This is going to be an absolute bloody massacre isn't it?

Oh yes, yes it is.

The margins really matter, though. With two thirds of the seats the right can unilaterally change the constitution without need for a referendum. And with about ~63% of the seats, there's a decent chance that Lega and FdI can have legislative majorities of their own without needing to consult with more "moderate" forces. Below that margin, the damages should be more contained, although either way it will be a dark time for Italy.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Of course, because the electoral system is absolute dogsh*t, we have no idea what popular vote margin would translate to what seat counts (there have been some estimates of the district-level results, but they're only worth so much). So we'll just have to find out in a month if democracy survives!

[Antonio the Sixth]

Why is the right currently so insanely popular?

More M5S is both seen as part of the left block after the past few years, but is not accepted as part of that alliance.

Basically what happened is that the M5S broad #Populist coalition of 2018 really did transcend ideological cleavages in a lot of ways. To considerably simplify, about half of it was "right-wing" populists who defected to Salvini during the years of the yellow-green government, and then to Meloni since Salvini started making a fool of himself. Meanwhile, the "left-wing" half of the party has largely remained (there has been some flow back to the left, and indeed PD is polling 5 points or so above its 2018 numbers, but not nearly as much). So we are indeed left in a situation where the broad "left" of the Italian political spectrum is split while the right is united.

There's also a general sense that the right deserves to have "its turn" in power, under the pretext that PD was in government in some form or another since 2011 except for the brief yellow-green interlude. Which is silly, of course, because in all of these governments except for the equally brief yellow-red interlude, it was in coalition with elements of the right. But still, for better or worse, the PD is perceived as the incumbent while the right is perceived more as the challenger. And, of course, this is a very anti-incumbent time for Italy.

[Antonio the Sixth]

The margins really matter, though. With two thirds of the seats the right can unilaterally change the constitution without need for a referendum.

what sort of constitutional changes would they like?

The main thing they've been talking about is "presidentialism" - which would entail directly electing the President and almost certainly increasing its powers beyond the largely ceremonial role it currently holds. Berlusconi has always been a fervent proponent of that, and in the even of such a reform he'd almost certainly run for the job (whether he'd win is a whole other question). Salvini and Meloni have also been supportive of the idea, so it's pretty much a guarantee if they have a supermajority.

On top of that, it's very likely that Salvini would insist on some provision for "fiscal autonomy" for regions (which would obviously benefit the rich Northern regions, are they're the one with the large tax bases to make use of it). This might be tempered by the need to keep some degree of support in the South, but only to some extent. Berlusconi is very likely to support some this given his own base of support, and Meloni likely will too.

There might also be some efforts to rein in the power of the judiciary, as that has also been a longtime battle cry of the right, but given the recent failure of the referendums in that sense I'm not sure how much appetite there is for it now.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Pollsters finally seem to be waking up. We've had 12 individual firm giving us polling results in the past week or so, which hopefully should lead to a more robust average. Of course, that's no guarantee of accuracy, but at least we're not completely in the dark (though we will be soon since we only have one more week before the polling blackout).

FdI: 24.2%
Lega: 12.9%
FI: 8.1%
NM: 1.7% (1.8% when included)
Total Right: 46.9%

PD: 22.3%
AVS: 3.6%
+E: 1.9% (2.1% when included)
IC: 1.0% (1.1% when included)
Total Center-Left: 28.8%

M5S: 11.8%

A-IV: 6.2%

Italexit: 2.8%

UP: 0.5% (1.2% when included)


Well, new polls or not, there still wasn't much change this week. The right's total is actually identical from last week. The left has recovered a point (although that might be due to pollsters finally starting to bother polling smaller coalition partners) but is still nowhere near where it needs to be to close the gap. M5S is also, somehow, gaining back support (+0.7 from last week), while A-IV seems to be plateauing and Italexit inches ever closer to the 3% threshold.

We'll see if any meaningful trends start setting in next week - it'll be our last chance to guess what the trends will be until September 25th, so hopefully they'll give us some room for hope...

[Antonio the Sixth]

Ok, so there are 2 outcomes I am slightly scared of (even within how terrible this election is) so I will ask how likely both scenarios are:

a) The 3 right wing parties adding up to a "constitutional majority"/being able to amend the constitution unilaterally without referendum. Which from what I can tell would mean a 2/3 majority?
 
b) FdI+Lega adding up to a majority by themselves, not needing Forza Italia. Not like Berlusconi is going to be a particularly good moderating force, but it's better than nothing I suppose.

Is either scenario likely to happen?

The general consensus on a) is that it's a stretch goal for the right, even with its current levels of support. It's definitely achievable, but it would probably require them overperforming current polls by a few points. If they do, then all hell breaks loose.

The likelihood of b) is harder to ascertain, but it's probably a little more likely than a). My best guess is that it would require the coalition winning ~63% of the seats, which is definitely within reach, but it also depends on the internal division of constituencies among the parties, which I haven't really drilled down on. If Forza Italia has more safe seats, the threshold would be higher. Still, this is a strong possibility and definitely one of the things to watch on September 25th.

[Antonio the Sixth]

M5S has gained maybe a point or two in the past month or so, yes. Of course, its polling a month or so ago was at its lowed in the entire legislature, so that's not exactly a stunning rebound. Still, it might indeed be possible that Conte actually benefited from pulling the plug on Draghi - a deeply worrisome proposition as it validates all of the M5S' worst instincts.

As for the ""third pole"" (lol, sure), it doesn't really make sense to say that it's gained or lost, since it has just barely established itself as a coherent block. That said, I'll admit that it is polling a little higher than I was expecting it to (although I still think it has more room to fall than grow come election day).

[Antonio the Sixth]

Well, here we are. Yesterday was the last day to publish polls, and of course every pollster (including plenty with dubious track record) rushed to get their final survey out. There's been a whopping 27 polls published since 09/03. Many pollsters published multiple ones, but I only kept each firm's final poll, leaving a still robust total of 20. Of course, that's no guarantee that they'll actually pan out, especially since the election is in two weeks. Still, this is the best picture we're going to get, so we'll have to make do with it until the 25th.

FdI: 24.9%
Lega: 12.1%
FI: 7.7%
NM: 1.3% (1.4% when included)
Total Right: 46%

PD: 21.5%
AVS: 3.6%
+E: 1.8% (1.9% when included)
IC: 1% (1.2% when included)
Total Center-Left: 27%

M5S: 13.4%

A-IV: 6.7%

Italexit: 2.7% (2.8% when included)

UP: 0.5% (1.2% when included)

Both major camps have lost ground since last week, but the left more so (-1.8, compared to -0.9 for the right). M5S meanwhile really seems to be the big winner of this campaign so far, having regained another 1.6 points from last week (mostly at the expense of PD it would seem). And A-IV bafflingly, inexplicably has also gained another 0.5 points. So, we're entering the final two weeks on a fragmented political landscape, but one still dominated by the right - and with a 19-point margin, it's still well positioned to sweep the FPP seats.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Gotta love how talking about fascism in FdI gets you branded as a radical-chic lefty fearmonger until one of them lets the mask slip for a second. And then of course everyone promptly forgets the next day.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I wonder what the 538 odds would be for who wins here.

With a 15 to 20-points lead? Probably around 95%. Maybe 90% if they account for the historical unreliability of Italian polls and the 2-weeks gap.

On that note though, a friend of mine is related to certain well-connected people who happen to have gotten their hands on an illegal poll. Mostly the numbers it shows aren't too different from those pre-09/10, but the main difference seems to be Lega losing and M5S gaining. So I guess that's the main place to look out for over- and underperformances this Sunday.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Turnout change from 2018 at 19 by region, color coded by North/Center/South.

Lazio -2.05
Lombardia -3.92
Sicilia -5.16
Toscana -5.8
Friuli-Venezia Giulia -6.21
Emilia-Romagna -6.22
Marche -6.47
Veneto -7
Nationwide -7.24
Liguria -7.6
Trentino Alto Adige -7.97
Piemonte -8.24
Umbria -8.7
Abruzzo -9.9
Valle d'Aosta -10.26
Puglia -11.08
Sardegna -11.51
Basilicata -11.86
Molise -12.42
Calabria -12.72
Campania -13.85

Obviously the worst drops are concentrated in the South, which is bad news for M5S but also probably largely priced in by polls already. Turnout holding on decently in the red regions might be good news for the left, but only to a limited extent. And Lazio having the lowest drop... well, Lazio is a weird region but in this particular case I can only think of one reason why it would be so much more motivated than the rest of the country.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Turnout change in the largest cities:

Roma -1.58
Milano -2.13
Napoli -10.71
Torino -7.72
Palermo -5.37
Genova -7.91

[Antonio the Sixth]

but in this particular case I can only think of one reason why it would be so much more motivated than the rest of the country.

Is this the bad reason that immediately popped into my head or something I'm missing - which is certainly quite possible.

Well, perhaps it would be fairer to say that there are two interconnected reasons: Lazio's own, er, rich history of neofascist sympathies, and the fact that Meloni herself is from Rome.

What's a good place to watch the results/tally?

https://elezioni.interno.gov.it/camera/scrutini/20220925/scrutiniCI

Results theoretically start coming in at 23 local time, but more likely around midnight.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Why does Sicily have a relatively low drop, do we think?

I would assume it's because there's also a regional election going on there today

That is my best guess, yeah, but if so that would be a new thing in Italy. We haven't really had "reverse coattails" style turnout boosts like this before. It might also just be that the storm that swept through Italy throughout the day just happened to spare Sicily. I haven't seen the weather maps so I can't say for sure, but maybe Battista did.

[Antonio the Sixth]

So no real exit polls?

La7 will give us something it calls a "trend poll", which sounds basically like an exit poll weighted with results from early polling statiions. No idea what that methodology is worth, so I'll take it with a grain of salt.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Here we go. May God help us all.

[Antonio the Sixth]

This seems more or less in line with the last few polls. Bad, very bad, but not outright catastrophic.

Now let's wait for the actual results, because historically exit polls in Italy got it wrong plenty of times.