Depends on who runs. I don't want to discount Pawlenty's chances, the guy won in 2006 on the same day that Klobuchar won her first term by 20%.
Pawlenty barely won reelection (by less than one point) because of a popular third party candidate and because the Democratic nominee was stupid enough to argue with and lash out at reporters (he called one reporter a "Republican whore"). Pawlenty got lucky.
It takes more than luck to win in that kind of a state in that kind of national environment — plus, he was polling within a few points of Hatch before the incident you mentioned.
Barely eking out a win as an incumbent when everything went right for you in the last weeks of the campaign =/= somehow unseating a Democratic incumbent in a lean D State with a D+12 national generic ballot.
