absentee/early vote thread, part 2

[Antonio the Sixth]

IIRC, Black share of the early voters was 29% in 2012 and it's 23% today. It's a massive drop-off.

yeah BUT

most of it has nothing do with blacks decreasing in a significant way.....but everyone else voting the hell out of it.

I've been hearing Dems use this talking point over and over, and it's incredibly disingenuous.

Of course overall turnout in raw numbers is going to be up, since 1. NC population has been growing very fast, and 2. early voting becomes more and more popular. If Blacks are barely even with their 2012 numbers, it means their actual propensity to vote is way down. And that's the problem. Raw numbers are meaningless in and of themselves.

[Antonio the Sixth]

IIRC, Black share of the early voters was 29% in 2012 and it's 23% today. It's a massive drop-off.

yeah BUT

most of it has nothing do with blacks decreasing in a significant way.....but everyone else voting the hell out of it.

I've been hearing Dems use this talking point over and over, and it's incredibly disingenuous.

Of course overall turnout in raw numbers is going to be up, since 1. NC population has been growing very fast, and 2. early voting becomes more and more popular. If Blacks are barely even with their 2012 numbers, it means their actual propensity to vote is way down. And that's the problem. Raw numbers are meaningless in and of themselves.

-UnAff's that break Dem are up tremendously
-Clinton is doing better than Obama with Whites
-Latinos are soaring

- Still not entirely clear. Youth turnout is down too.
- At the presidential level, maybe. Again, my concern is mainly Sen/Gov.
- All 5% of them?

[Antonio the Sixth]

According to the 2012 exit poll, the African American share of the vote was 23%. If African American turnout matches that number on election day, then there isn't much to be worried about, and the decrease in share of the early vote mostly comes from increased participation from white and other voters that would have voted in election day anyway, along with the noticeable surge in Latino turnout across the board. Nothing to freak out about at this point.

I certainly hope you're right. If you are, it's going to be a great night for Hillary and I'll have my hopes up for Ross and Cooper. Still far from a sure thing.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Yeah, Colorado is holding strong. Definitely not the one I'm worried about.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Can someone please post updated numbers for  Colorado?

As of Friday - 2016 v 2014. (2014 in parenthesis)

Democrats  554,340 (371,190)
Republicans  547,775 (475,667)
Independent 429,267 (290,600)

TOTAL 1,553,325 (1,149,745)

Dem turnout up 49%
Rethuglican turnout up 15%
Independent turnout up 48%

Total turnout up 35%

Splendid numbers!

[Antonio the Sixth]

Michael McDonald ‏@ElectProject  2m2 minutes ago
Something went very wrong for African-Americans' voting in North Carolina

Seriously folks, this should be a red flag.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Michael McDonald ‏@ElectProject  2m2 minutes ago
Something went very wrong for African-Americans' voting in North Carolina

Suppression efforts, but they will compensate on ED.

I'm hoping they will, but just assuming so is wishful thinking.

I wish we had a Ralston/Schale equivalent in NC to clue us in.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I really despise any and every REpublican in this country.

You vote for REpublicans youre cosigning this disgusting voter supression effort.

Absolutley and utterly 100% unAmerican.

I'm at a loss for words at how angered I am by this.

Ditto. They're simply evil.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I haven't check or anything so I could be wrong, but a lot of areas that got hit hard by Matthew were eastern black areas in NC. Could that have cause polling places to be reduce in them areas for EV? And if so on election day could we see a them just vote on that day?

I think that's the issue.

All our hopes are resting on that. I'm crossing fingers.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Restrictions in early vote may account for lower African-American turnout in North Carolina, but I think Matthew also played a role as well. I think most of the missing African-American vote will turn out on election day.

Even if that happens, isn't there a risk of polling places being overwhelmed? There is a lot to catch up, so even if Black voters try to vote they might be discouraged by long lines.

[Antonio the Sixth]

The strike is ending in the morning, source NBC10

Oh, thank God.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Intesresting quote from The Nooner (CA political newsletter):

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Ooooooooooooooooooooooooo

the first three are terrific, the last bit of news makes me deeply sad but I can imagine it.

I don't. Why would people seriously buy into a candidate who's made it abundantly clear he's a puppet of the tech industry?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Michael McDonald ‏@ElectProject  3m3 minutes ago
Well, Clinton might have pulled off Ohio. #Earlyvote change from 2012
Cuyahoga +1,052 (+0.4%)
Franklin +22,522 (+10.2%)

How does it compare in % terms?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Michael McDonald ‏@ElectProject  3m3 minutes ago
Well, Clinton might have pulled off Ohio. #Earlyvote change from 2012
Cuyahoga +1,052 (+0.4%)
Franklin +22,522 (+10.2%)

How does it compare in % terms?

What do you mean, that is the change from 2012 final total for absentee and early voting.

Sorry, I meant how does the % of these counties EV over the total Ohio EV compare to that same number in 2012.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Jeff Gauvin on Twitter :
LATINO SURGE:

■FLORIDA: +103%
■N.CAROLINA: +85%
■GEORGIA: +147%