The absentee/early vote thread

[Antonio the Sixth]

This thread is strangely quiet today. Throughout the past week I've heard people say that the weekend results would be crucial, so how is it going?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Democrats win early voting in Washoe County by 18 votes today

3097-3079

https://www.washoecounty.us/voters/electioninformation/ev_turnout_reports.php

These repeated victories in Washoe are a big deal.

Didn't Dems win Washoe in 2012 already?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Jon Ralston ‏2m ago

Dems won Clark by 4,000 today.

Dems – 14226

GOP – 10015

NP – 6829

About like 2012

Dems up about 44.000 in Clark now.

Wonderful news.

Sorry to be a broken record but... how does the % margin compare?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Beautiful!

[Antonio the Sixth]

Ralston very amused:

Jon Ralston ‏ 2minutes ago

Only one word for this demonstration of Trump's NV ground game: HUGE.

I assume that's sarcastic?

[Antonio the Sixth]

What about NC? This is where SttP was supposed to make all the difference, right?

[Antonio the Sixth]

if the general assumptions about NC (strong in clinton's direction) are right, i project a disappointing NC sttp-result since alle other groups are way up and afro-americans were reaaaaaaally strong in 2012.

But that's the point. Today was the day they were expected to catch up.

[Antonio the Sixth]

if the general assumptions about NC (strong in clinton's direction) are right, i project a disappointing NC sttp-result since alle other groups are way up and afro-americans were reaaaaaaally strong in 2012.

But that's the point. Today was the day they were expected to catch up.

Remember that the big swing in NC will be in the triangle area with Educated Whites. Don't expect the African American vote to be the sole carrier of it.

It's not just about winning for me here, tbh. If African-American stays down, it will have meant that the GOP's disgusting voter suppression efforts actually worked. That would be awful regardless of the outcome.

[Antonio the Sixth]

i just won't assume that every year must be 2012...

But every year should be like 2012. Going back from that means taking the first step to a return of Jim Crow.

[Antonio the Sixth]

What about NC? This is where SttP was supposed to make all the difference, right?

NC hasn't updated at http://www.electproject.org/early_2016. Does anyone have any updates on NC?

Most Sos sites don't update weekend numbers until Monday....

Please correct me if I'm wrong, but it seems that many on the forum are freaking without any real data to back it up....

If so, tomorrow is gonna be CRAZY.

[Antonio the Sixth]

But every year should be like 2012. Going back from that means taking the first step to a return of Jim Crow.

i understand your general judgement but to assume that a minority group always votes 90+% for one candidate with the highest turnout of the whole electorate seems a little bit far-fetched for me.

if the republican party wouldn't be ready to kill itself in the long-term this couldbn't have been achieved anyway.

instead of pressuring a single group into delivering each and each cycle again and again....i guess all groups sacrifice a little bit more.

i think african americans are going to do just fine....but if they don't feel as personally insulted from the allegations of "inner city voter fraud" as from the birtherism against obama in 2012....all other groups could have changed this election too.

this time all the blaming and shaming has been about latinos.....and to a smaller grade, highly educated white women.....both of those groups must decide for themselves if they accept the republic to treat them like this. if they don't come out strongly against those attitudes...they only have themselves to blame.

In the words of a famous Latina... why not both?

[Antonio the Sixth]

OK, I know I'll get blasted again for being a killjoy and everything, but... from the NC and FL results, doesn't it look like SttP was a massive flop? African-Americans were supposed to narrow their turnout deficit at least a bit, right? Instead the latest numbers I've seen show them still way down.

If this is wrong please explain me why, but for God's sake cut it with the unbacked "everything will be fine" mantra.

[Antonio the Sixth]

OK, I know I'll get blasted again for being a killjoy and everything, but... from the NC and FL results, doesn't it look like SttP was a massive flop? African-Americans were supposed to narrow their turnout deficit at least a bit, right? Instead the latest numbers I've seen show them still way down.

If this is wrong please explain me why, but for God's sake cut it with the unbacked "everything will be fine" mantra.

No one's taking this up? Uh-oh.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I don't know what you guys don't get about the fact that Democrats vote later than Republicans. The numbers in North Carolina and Florida do not look bad (quite the opposite) and Clinton isn't reliant on record African American turnout because she is doing better among both white and Latino voters in both states.

We're talking about a 10-point drop here. I'm OK with not having "record African-American turnout", but this looks like we're going back to the 90s.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I don't know what you guys don't get about the fact that Democrats vote later than Republicans. The numbers in North Carolina and Florida do not look bad (quite the opposite) and Clinton isn't reliant on record African American turnout because she is doing better among both white and Latino voters in both states.

We're talking about a 10-point drop here. I'm OK with not having "record African-American turnout", but this looks like we're going back to the 90s.

I can guarantee that there isn't going to be a 40% drop in African American turnout if that is what you are wondering lol.

I hope you're right. I wish I could feel so confident.

[Antonio the Sixth]

This has been the best thread on this subforum all election. I'm having a ton of fun sifting through all the numbers with y'all without (too much of) the craziness from elsewhere. Let's go out with a bang, eh? Don't get to do this again for a while.

Yea, I agree wholeheartedly. I always look forward to posts here.

So do I, FWIW.

I'm not trying to scaremonger, I just want to be reassured.

[Antonio the Sixth]

There's still a massive gap here. Since the White vote is up significantly, Blacks need to at least pull even in raw numbers to avoid a collapse.

[Antonio the Sixth]

A twofold increase? Wow. This is big.

Jon Ralston ‏@RalstonReports  3m3 minutes ago
Turnout going to be low today in Clark, but maybe better than Mon. 5,600 had voted by 11. Was 4,500 on Mon. I bet Dems are nervous.

Turnout today was lower in 2012 than on monday in 2012

http://nvsos.gov/sos/home/showdocument?id=2503

What the hell does that even mean?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Any sign that the AA vote is beginning to catch up? I remember seeing that the % had increased in FL and NC, but can anyone say how much and if it's enough to limit the damage there?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Jon Ralston ‏@RalstonReports  32s32 seconds ago
29,000 had voted by 6 PM. Same as Monday. And that was a bad day for Dems. Just sayin'

What is he trying to say? I have no idea why he needs to be so pithy about this.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Jon Ralston ‏@RalstonReports  32s32 seconds ago
29,000 had voted by 6 PM. Same as Monday. And that was a bad day for Dems. Just sayin'

What is he trying to say? I have no idea why he needs to be so pithy about this.

By 6pm the same amt of people had voted - and that was a "bad" day for Dems yesterday. He mentioned that at the same point 4 years ago he expected today's numbers to be worse for Dems today but I guess they aren't.

So the bottom line is that Dems are outperforming expectation?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Oh f**k.

Has Ralston said anything about what the NV numbers are likely to mean for Senate?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Oh f**k.

Has Ralston said anything about what the NV numbers are likely to mean for Senate?

He's said in the past that it's very close, 50-50 odds.

I don't like this.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Oh! Good to know.

Let's hope Clark also has a good day.

[Antonio the Sixth]

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better than yesterday, no republican break even.

Is he saying that Dems won by 3,000 in 2012, but only by 2,200 this time? That's a pretty significant drop.