The absentee/early vote thread

[dspNY]

Is high turnout in the WOW counties really good news for Trump? My impression was that he's relatively weak for a Republican in those counties, and that he would be stronger in the more rural NW parts of the state and in Green Bay.

It's good news for Johnson against Feingold though. That being said we know for sure that high turnout in Milwaukee and Madison is good for HRC

[Minnesota Mike]

In Miami-Dade county Early/Absentee voting has nearly equaled the total Early/Absentee vote in 2012 with a week yet to go..

https://twitter.com/MDCElections?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw


Vote by Mail:

2012: 244K
2016: 222K

In Person Early

2012: 235K
2016: 239K

Yes, Steve Schale just tweeted that Palm Beach, Broward and Dade surpassed the 1 million mark in VBM and EIP today. Big numbers. Also, Hispanics make up 13.5%, so far, of all early votes. That's another good number for Clinton.

I think we are looking at 6+ mill Early/VBM ballots in Florida (about 4 mill now) out of an estimated total turnout of a little over 9 mill.

[henster]

I can't see how anyone spins this, very ugly #'s in FL.

https://twitter.com/electionsmith/status/793278422415872000

[Minnesota Mike]

OK, I know I'll get blasted again for being a killjoy and everything, but... from the NC and FL results, doesn't it look like SttP was a massive flop? African-Americans were supposed to narrow their turnout deficit at least a bit, right? Instead the latest numbers I've seen show them still way down.

If this is wrong please explain me why, but for God's sake cut it with the unbacked "everything will be fine" mantra.

No one's taking this up? Uh-oh.

I believe the big STTP push in Florida is next Sunday.

[Dr. Arch]

I can't see how anyone spins this, very ugly #'s in FL.

https://twitter.com/electionsmith/status/793278422415872000

VBM looks really good, but the early vote not so much. We'll see what happens.

[henster]

She is going to have really kill it with Hispanics like 70-75, she is clearly doing worse with whites across all polls in FL. Drop in black turnout leaves no room for error.

[Xing]

OK, I know I'll get blasted again for being a killjoy and everything, but... from the NC and FL results, doesn't it look like SttP was a massive flop? African-Americans were supposed to narrow their turnout deficit at least a bit, right? Instead the latest numbers I've seen show them still way down.

If this is wrong please explain me why, but for God's sake cut it with the unbacked "everything will be fine" mantra.

No one's taking this up? Uh-oh.

I haven't seen the latest NC/FL numbers, but if it was a flop, then that's definitely bad new for those two states. There's still time, though, and even if low black turnout does sink Hillary in NC/FL (I doubt that this will actually happen), that's not going to be enough for Trump to win. NV, CO, and WI all look great for Hillary right now, meaning that unless Trump wins PA, he's not going to win.

[Speed of Sound]

Yeah, the swing in the white vote would have to be heavy for those to look very good. OTOH, that doesn't mesh well with the recent polling the state. Hard to say what that means right now. Like NC especially, a very muddy mess right now, and it may not actually clear much before Election Day.

[Ebsy]

henster's concern trolling is entering new territory. Go away troll.

[Ebsy]

I don't know what you guys don't get about the fact that Democrats vote later than Republicans. The numbers in North Carolina and Florida do not look bad (quite the opposite) and Clinton isn't reliant on record African American turnout because she is doing better among both white and Latino voters in both states.

[ApatheticAustrian]

some parts of dem coalition vote early-early anfd some late-early...as strange as it sounds.

but yeah....especially young voters ...aaaaaaaad...as schale stated several times,  there are big amounts of requested but unfilled absentee mails laying around.

[Speed of Sound]

I don't know what you guys don't get about the fact that Democrats vote later than Republicans. The numbers in North Carolina and Florida do not look bad (quite the opposite) and Clinton isn't reliant on record African American turnout because she is doing better among both white and Latino voters in both states.

On the whole, I agree with you. The point that asmith's chart brings up is that, with the same amount of time to Election Day, the demos are worse looking (more whites, less blacks, not enough Latinx to make up the difference). There may be built in logical fallacies for comparing by "x days out", but if there aren't, they are a bit weak. That said, party numbers and polls have been good, so maybe white vote is going the way we want.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I don't know what you guys don't get about the fact that Democrats vote later than Republicans. The numbers in North Carolina and Florida do not look bad (quite the opposite) and Clinton isn't reliant on record African American turnout because she is doing better among both white and Latino voters in both states.

We're talking about a 10-point drop here. I'm OK with not having "record African-American turnout", but this looks like we're going back to the 90s.

[psychprofessor]

I can't see how anyone spins this, very ugly #'s in FL.

https://twitter.com/electionsmith/status/793278422415872000

At this point 4 years ago in Florida, it had two weekends of early vote and STTP. This year it's been only one so far.

Also, look at where the early vote is coming from and the partisan breakdown.

[Dr. Arch]

I don't know what you guys don't get about the fact that Democrats vote later than Republicans. The numbers in North Carolina and Florida do not look bad (quite the opposite) and Clinton isn't reliant on record African American turnout because she is doing better among both white and Latino voters in both states.

We're talking about a 10-point drop here. I'm OK with not having "record African-American turnout", but this looks like we're going back to the 90s.

Stop panicking. Let's talk again next Monday, okay? I understand your concern, but let's be patient.

[Speed of Sound]

I can't see how anyone spins this, very ugly #'s in FL.

https://twitter.com/electionsmith/status/793278422415872000

At this point 4 years ago Florida, had two weekends of early vote and STTP. This year it's been only one so far.

Aha, there's the fallacy I was looking for. So we just need to keep an eye on the numbers day to day, then, see if the numbers get restored by ED. Thanks!

[Ebsy]

I don't know what you guys don't get about the fact that Democrats vote later than Republicans. The numbers in North Carolina and Florida do not look bad (quite the opposite) and Clinton isn't reliant on record African American turnout because she is doing better among both white and Latino voters in both states.

On the whole, I agree with you. The point that asmith's chart brings up is that, with the same amount of time to Election Day, the demos are worse looking (more whites, less blacks, not enough Latinx to make up the difference). There may be built in logical fallacies for comparing by "x days out", but if there aren't, they are a bit weak. That said, party numbers and polls have been good, so maybe white vote is going the way we want.

There are no working class white Democrats in Florida and North Carolina for Clinton to lose, so she is going to be gaining considerably with white college educated voters, especially women, in the suburbs of both states with little to no downside. Also, turnout is extremely high in the Latino portions of Southern Florida, leading me to believe that the unthinkable will happen again and Miami-Dade County will further swing towards Democrats.

[Ebsy]

I don't know what you guys don't get about the fact that Democrats vote later than Republicans. The numbers in North Carolina and Florida do not look bad (quite the opposite) and Clinton isn't reliant on record African American turnout because she is doing better among both white and Latino voters in both states.

We're talking about a 10-point drop here. I'm OK with not having "record African-American turnout", but this looks like we're going back to the 90s.

I can guarantee that there isn't going to be a 40% drop in African American turnout if that is what you are wondering lol.

[Speed of Sound]

I don't know what you guys don't get about the fact that Democrats vote later than Republicans. The numbers in North Carolina and Florida do not look bad (quite the opposite) and Clinton isn't reliant on record African American turnout because she is doing better among both white and Latino voters in both states.

On the whole, I agree with you. The point that asmith's chart brings up is that, with the same amount of time to Election Day, the demos are worse looking (more whites, less blacks, not enough Latinx to make up the difference). There may be built in logical fallacies for comparing by "x days out", but if there aren't, they are a bit weak. That said, party numbers and polls have been good, so maybe white vote is going the way we want.

There are no working class white Democrats in Florida and North Carolina for Clinton to lose, so she is going to be gaining considerably with white college educated voters, especially women, in the suburbs of both states with little to no downside. Also, turnout is extremely high in the Latino portions of Southern Florida, leading me to believe that the unthinkable will happen again and Miami-Dade County will further swing towards Democrats.

All may very well be right. Thanks for the insight! As easy as it is to be impatient this close to ED, just gotta wait and see, day to day.

[psychprofessor]

I can't see how anyone spins this, very ugly #'s in FL.

https://twitter.com/electionsmith/status/793278422415872000

At this point 4 years ago Florida, had two weekends of early vote and STTP. This year it's been only one so far.

Aha, there's the fallacy I was looking for. So we just need to keep an eye on the numbers day to day, then, see if the numbers get restored by ED. Thanks!

And as Steve Schale reminds everyone, the Hispanic number is usually underrepresented since there are a portion of Latino's who self-ID as white. Also look at the no affiliation numbers...off the charts so far. Further, Dems are recruiting more unlikely voters than Reps are...it looks close but I think the demographics favor Clinton.

[dspNY]

2,237,972 voters cast ballots in the three South FL counties in 2012. So Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach are around 44.6% of their overall 2012 turnout. They are 26% of the statewide turnout now and were 26.4% of the statewide vote in 2012. So those counties are fractionally lagging 2012. I agree that the demographic breakdown is a concern but the actual number of votes from those three counties is tracking 2012. It looks to me as if a big push in Broward will lock the state down for her

[Antonio the Sixth]

I don't know what you guys don't get about the fact that Democrats vote later than Republicans. The numbers in North Carolina and Florida do not look bad (quite the opposite) and Clinton isn't reliant on record African American turnout because she is doing better among both white and Latino voters in both states.

We're talking about a 10-point drop here. I'm OK with not having "record African-American turnout", but this looks like we're going back to the 90s.

I can guarantee that there isn't going to be a 40% drop in African American turnout if that is what you are wondering lol.

I hope you're right. I wish I could feel so confident.

[ApatheticAustrian]

40% drop...don't be ridicolous.

10-15% sounds more likely.

[Speed of Sound]

This has been the best thread on this subforum all election. I'm having a ton of fun sifting through all the numbers with y'all without (too much of) the craziness from elsewhere. Let's go out with a bang, eh? Don't get to do this again for a while.

[Dr. Arch]

This has been the best thread on this subforum all election. I'm having a ton of fun sifting through all the numbers with y'all without (too much of) the craziness from elsewhere. Let's go out with a bang, eh? Don't get to do this again for a while.

Yea, I agree wholeheartedly. I always look forward to posts here.