Italian Election Series - 1952 General Elections

[Antonio the Sixth]

The first regularly scheduled parliamentary elections gave the already fragile Parri government an even more tenuous majority. To the relief of most, US, Pd'Az, DC and liberals had enough seats to form a government without seeking the help of extremist forces of the right and the left. Still, disagreements within the governing coalition remained extremely strong. Parri first sought to appease tensions by offering the Liberals (the most reluctant partner) the Presidency. In May, Luigi Einaudi was thus elected the first President of the Italian Republic. This allowed some months of tranquility, during which the government was able to further its initiatives for economic reconstruction, including the creation of a modern welfare state and the establishment of public monopolies in activities such as energy or transportation. After half a year, Parri gave up and was replaced by his close ally Ugo La Malfa. But even La Malfa wasn't able to control the right-wing of the coalition (liberals and part of DC), and his government had fallen by mid 1949. DC politician Amintore Fanfani was then called to take the lead, but his government only lasted for a year and half. The year 1951 was marred by government crisis, with several PoCs alternating coming from different coalitions partners. Later that year, the coalition agreed to enact an electoral reform that allowed parties to affiliate and, if any such alliance got more than 50% of the votes, granted them 2/3 of the seats. This reform was forcefully denounced by extra-governmental parties, which nicknamed it "legge truffa" (fraud law). Nonetheless, with the hope to get a working majority, the coalition asked President Einaudi to dissolve the parliament, and new elections were held in February 1952.

Summary of the forces in competition:

Italian Communist Party (PCI) Still marxist and aligned with the USSR. The most left-wing of the major parties and radically opposed to the incumbent government.

Italian Socialist Party (PSI) While it has put an end to the FDP alliance, it remains marxist, very close to the PCI and similarly opposed to the coalition government.

Italian Democratic Socialist Party (PSDI) Giuseppe Saragat's splinter from the PSI. It has abandoned marxism and is a member of the governing coalition (it is affiliated with Pd'Az, DC and PLI for electoral purposes).

Action Party (Pd'Az) Still the strongest force of the governing coalition (although it has been weakened by the recent political instability), it supports a moderately progressive platform and maintaining the current coalition (although it would gladly get rid of the PLI).

Christian Democracy (DC) Seemingly in inexorable decline, DC is still dominated by Fanfani for lack of other strong personalities. It has mostly endorsed the government's statist agenda although it works as a moderating force (and is also of course socially conservative).

Italian Liberal Party (PLI) The most right-wing member of the governing coalition, it seeks to block or at least moderate the government's most left-wing projects. While this position has helped it gain ground in 1948, it has not been much successful policy-wise. It has affiliated with PSDI, Pd'Az and DC for the upcoming election.

Monarchist National Party (PNM) Still supports the monarchy. It hopes to become essential to the governing coalition, so as to advance its ideals. But even though it has gotten excellent results, it is still far from enough to hope for a return of the King.

Italian Social Movement (MSI) As the last elections have shown, many Italians still believe in fascist ideals, and this party seeks to represent them. Obviously, it doesn't want to have anything to do with the current coalition government, although some sections of it would be open to a hypothetical right-wing alliance with PNM, PLI and DC (not that these parties would necessarily be open to it).

[Antonio the Sixth]

Pd'Az, hoping for a strong and stable government.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Terrible election laws. Monarchist as always.

I didn't invent it, though.

Still PSDI.

Antonio, I know you said there were several PoCs in quick succession in 1951, but would it be possible to get lists of Presidents and PoCs for completeness's sake?

I'll try to put one together by the next election, but honestly, my knowledge of the arcanes of first republic Italian politics is too limited for my list to be taken seriously. So don't make too much of it.

[Antonio the Sixth]

What happened to the Action Party?

No idea... I guess PSDI is a more attractive banner to rally around.

This is pretty sad, because Action Party wins made for original maps.

[Antonio the Sixth]

What happened to the Action Party?

No idea... I guess PSDI is a more attractive banner to rally around.

This is pretty sad, because Action Party wins made for original maps.

Well, compared to RL both the DC and the PCI are incredibly weak, so the map will be quite different that way.
Both the Gaullists in the French poll and the Christian Democrats here just seem to be too interventionist and friendly towards ordinary people for US conservatives to consider them.

You're right: if these results hold, the map will be really challenging to make. PSDI will probably sweep the North, but I've no idea what to do with the "red regions". PCI could still pull out in a few constituencies in Romagna or southern Tuscany. DC will be wiped out: its vote distribution is too uniform. It's also hard to manage PLI, PNM and MSI since all of them tend to be strong in the South. But the vote isn't closed yet!

Hoping for a PSDI-PSI-Pd'Az coalition!

It's hard to envision until PSI remains aligned with the PCI (things will start to change after 1956), though if the incumbent coalition doesn't have a majority then it is definitely possible. Both PSI and PNM would be options, though none of them will be easy to work with. I don't see a legislature like that lasting for more than 2 years...

[Antonio the Sixth]

People seem to be forgetting that the PSDI quickly turned into an arch-corrupt right-wing party in RL.

Quickly?  What specifically did they do?

Well, I think the transformation had much to do with DC's influence and the fact that other coalition parties were basically its whores. As IRL, the government parties will probably become utterly corrupt throughout the 1960s and 1970s in this TL. However, considering the rather left-wing political balance, I don't think that PSDI is at immediate risk of becoming as right-wing as it was IRL.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Damn.  One would think that the PSI would fit fine with the PSDI and Pd'Az at least economically.  Seems like foreign policy would be the only really divisive issue.

Yeah, that's the big problem at this point in time. There is no way the PSI can accept adhesion to NATO and alignment with the US on foreign policy. Things will be different in the 1960s (as they did IRL, mind you).

[Antonio the Sixth]

Bump.

Come on people! We're 3 votes below 1946 turnout and 9 votes behind 1948!

[Antonio the Sixth]

Bump.

Come on people! We're 3 votes below 1946 turnout and 9 votes behind 1948!

Don't be greedy 30+ should be enough.

I know, I just don't like losing voters along the way...

[Antonio the Sixth]

Well, at least it would appear that we won't need the Monarchists in the next government.

On the downside, for the first time the aggregated right has more votes than the aggregated left.

[Antonio the Sixth]

OK, last bump. 16 hours or so left to vote.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Well, at least it would appear that we won't need the Monarchists in the next government.

On the downside, for the first time the aggregated right has more votes than the aggregated left.

That's what happens with trolls. Christian Democrats + Liberals + Monarchists is par for the course for the right.

Well, MSI is actually down from the last election. PLI and PNM are really doing great this time around. And DC's decline is not as big as it might have seemed initially.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Well, at least it would appear that we won't need the Monarchists in the next government.

On the downside, for the first time the aggregated right has more votes than the aggregated left.

YAY!

It's 18-18 now.

Still, a good result for you guys. Is it just luck or a lasting trend? We'll see soon!

[Antonio the Sixth]

PSDI: 20.7% (+9.3), 163 seats (+100)
PLI: 15.4% (+4.2), 116 seats (+52)
PNM: 12.7% (+1.6), 59 seats (-7)
PCI: 10.6%, 49 seats (-32)
PSI: 10.5%, 42 seats (+9)
MSI: 10.1% (-3.2), 43 seats (-32)
DC: 9.9% (-1.9), 68 seats (+4)
Pd'Az: 7.4% (-13.1), 47 seats (-75)
Others: 2.7%, 3 seats

The election saw the brutal and unforeseen collapse of the Action Party, which in only four years fell from the first to the eighth place and was nearly wiped off the map. Similarly, DC lost votes for the third time in a row, falling below 10%. This failure of the two most "central" and cooperative members of the coalition was mirrored by a success of its more extreme "wings": the socialist (though not marxist) PSDI, and the economically conservative PLI. PSDI swept Northern Italy, emerging ahead in regions where Pd'Az had polled well in the past. PLI was penalized by the fact that its vote share was fairly evenly distributed throughout the country. Some of its more conservative voters actually switched to the monarchists, which swept the South - although this loss was largely compensated by an influx of moderate voters in the north. The two marxist parties recovered somewhat from the FDP disaster, with PSI almost returning to its 1946 level and managing to come ahead in two constituencies. PCI's result was pretty disappointing though, as the party barely outpolled the PSI, and only held its ground in the reddest parts of the red regions of the centre. MSI also somewhat declined, but still came first in Latium. With 53.4% of the votes, the coalition unlocked the majority bonus and was awarded two thirds of the seats, which resulted in a significant overrepresentation of its parties.

[Antonio the Sixth]

What party won Sardinia? Pd'Az?

Yeah, Pd'Az. The party here benefits from its favorite son Emilio Lussu (IRL, Lussu split from the Action Party and formed the Sardinian Action Party, which for some years was quite successful locally).