Vote counting update thread

[Antonio the Sixth]

The RCP average was actually 2.9%, exactly the result.

RCP was pretty skewed since it didn't include PPP and other Dem-friendly polls.

According to the Atlas, the polls published in the 3 days preceding the election...

2012-11-05   Ipsos                              O +4
2012-11-04   Public Policy Polling         O +5
2012-11-04   University of Cincinnati   O +2   
2012-11-04   Survey USA                     O +5   
2012-11-04   Rasmussen                     Tie
2012-11-03   YouGov                           O +3   
2012-11-03   Zogby                             O +8   
2012-11-03   Columbus Dispatch         O +2

...averaged 3.6 and had a median of 3.5.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Ohio is such a disappointment... It was predicted to be 1 to 2 points more democratic than the nation as a whole, and will end 0.6-0.8 points more rep instead.

Even Sherrod Brown's result was underwhelming...

What was the final result in the Senate race?

Brown 50.7%, Mandel 44.7%, Random Dude 4.6%

[Antonio the Sixth]

High turnout is not a good thing if a bunch of ignorant and uninformed people are voting.  I'd rather there be just 30% turnout if the 30% are very informed and engaged on the issues.

I guess you don't quite get the point of democracy...

[Antonio the Sixth]

Any news about counting in NY?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Yeah, I would say we'd need at least 135M votes to keep up with population growth. Too bad we won't get there.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Dave still hasn't updated California and the other States that certified recently.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Dave still hasn't updated California and the other States that certified recently.

I'm guessing he's waiting for all state's to certify.

AND THAT SUCKS!

[Antonio the Sixth]

Dave still hasn't updated the final results in MA, NE and KS.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I guess that puts Obama over 51%.

[Antonio the Sixth]

So these are the final (rounded) official figures:

Obama/Biden: 51%
Romney/Ryan: 47%
third parties/other: 2%

Mr. 47 Percent. He earned it!

[Antonio the Sixth]

Can we hope for Obama to break 66M? For the absolute margin to reach 5M? It's so close right now.

[Antonio the Sixth]

How about now?

County data still missing 40k votes compared to the state total (which is the final numbers).

Final-final or final-excluding a few write-ins that Dave will add later?

[Antonio the Sixth]

How about now?

County data still missing 40k votes compared to the state total (which is the final numbers).

Final-final or final-excluding a few write-ins that Dave will add later?

No idea. Certainly final tallies for people who actually were candidates, though.

BTW, I compared Dave's data with Wasserman's. Obama has 68 more votes in Dave's, which is reasonable. However, Romney lacks 2,978 votes in Dave's count, which is harder to explain. As for the total vote, Dave has 86,607 more, probably due to being more inclusive in write-ins. This Romney divergence is really troubling though...

[Antonio the Sixth]

Yeah, but I'm too lazy to look through. At least not right now. That said, I pointed it out and if anyone is excited at the prospect of solving this mystery, be my guest.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Alright, turns out I've got nothing better to do.

Found a little discrepancy in OH, O+42 and R+15. The OH SoS seems to resolve in Wasserman's favor, but Dave must have had a good reason to add these few votes.

Bingo! So the culprit's name is... Wisconsin. There, Romney gets exactly 3000 votes less according to Dave (1,407,966, while Wasserman has 1,410,966). And going to the election info page... Dave seems to be right. However, I'm still wondering where Wasserman saw these 3000 Romney votes. The roundness of the number makes it seem like a typo, but that's a pretty weird typo to do.

Will look up the rest later. So far the tallies still diverge by 26 votes for Obama and 7 for Romney, almost nothing.

[Antonio the Sixth]

So the last little issue was with Connecticut. Dave counts 26 more Obama votes and 7 more Romney votes than Wasserman, explaining all the remaining discrepancies. The CT SoS has Wasserman's count though, so... don't know what to think of this one. Dave must know more than I do.

Since every difference is explained, I'm not going father than that.


In short, these are the conflicting States.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Bingo! So the culprit's name is... Wisconsin. There, Romney gets exactly 3000 votes less according to Dave (1,407,966, while Wasserman has 1,410,966). And going to the election info page... Dave seems to be right. However, I'm still wondering where Wasserman saw these 3000 Romney votes. The roundness of the number makes it seem like a typo, but that's a pretty weird typo to do.

I think I can clear that one up. Because I found that error in Dave's county data when I updated the swing map - misstating Waupaca County's Republican votes by 3k (17whatever instead of 14whatever - an error that could have happened through machinereading a handwritten document or one in an unknown font). This seems have been a typo that the state included in its certificated and then quickly corrected - note that the official report on the state website is described as "amended". Dave's statewide figures, though, was always correct - either he used the amended one for that and the (now unavailable) original for the counties, or the state total always was correct but Wasserman constructs his state tallies from the county data.

Yeah, I see that. Dave gives Romney 14,002 votes in Waupaca Co, and so does the WI SOS page. The big issue is solved.

OH and CT are still annoying though.

[Antonio the Sixth]

THE ELECTION ISN'T OVER

WISCONSIN AND OHIO WERE STOLEN WITH ACORN DEMOCRAT VOTER FRAUD

MITT ROMNEY IS PRESIDENT

That might seem irrelevant, but we Europeans are so used to getting clear and indisputable vote tallies that the slightest discrepancy bothers us.