French Legislative Elections 2012: Hashemite's Guide and Predictions

[Antonio the Sixth]

You mean we don't get most constituency results by 20h30-21h ? Shame.

Spain will win

Don't be too confident. Italy is able to surprise everybody, for good or for bad.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Thanks. Is there anywhere available online census stats by constituency (or other level, commune, department whatever). It would be particularly interesting to see figures for ethnic minority groups, religious groups etc, but I don;t think the French collate that data

Indeed. There is no such thing as ethnicity stats in France. No idea for religion, but, if you want to have a look by yourself, here is the website of France's statistic agency : http://www.insee.fr/en/

[Antonio the Sixth]

Here's a little map of the "upsets" compared to your predictions :



Right upsets : 25 (rated : 17 tossup, 6 lean, 2 favoured)
Left upsets : 13 (rated : 10 tossup, 3 lean)
Far-right upset : 1 (rated lean)


Taking back your numbers, it gives :

Safe left 220/220 = 100%
Left favoured 44/46 = 96%
Lean left 44/51 = 86%

Tossup - left edge 22/39 =56%

Centre favoured 1/1 = 100%
Lean centre 1/1 = 100%

Tossup - right edge 29/39 = 74%

Lean right 51/54 = 94%
Right favoured 59/59 = 100%
Safe right 65/65 = 100%

Lean EXD 1/1 = 100%
Tossup - EXD edge 1/1 = 100%


Left overall 330/356 = 93% (97% excluding tossups)
Right overall 204/217 = 94% (98% excluding tossups)
Others 4/4 = 100%


Tossup 52/79 = 66%
Lean 97/107 = 91%
Favoured 104/106 = 98%
Safe 285/285 = 100%


Overall 538/577 = 93%.

Congrats !

[Antonio the Sixth]

And, to compare with Fab :



Right upsets : 28 (+3 : right on Loiret-2 and Essonne-4, wrong on Drôme-2, Isère-7, BR-3 and S&M-7)
Left upsets : 15 (+2 : right on Vienne-4, wrong on Sarthe-1, Hérault-6 and FdE-8)
Far-right upset : 2 (+1 : wrong on Vaucluse-3)

Overall success was 92%. Of your 10 "disagreements", Gaël was right for 8 and Fab for 2.

[Antonio the Sixth]

FTR, I changed my prediction in Essonne-4 (to a NKM win) on Saturday. But I'm pleased that I did marginally better than Fab.

Ah, sorry, I was a bit confused about which of the maps you posted was your final one. Please let me know if I made any other mistake.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Just to finish off, I crossed the list of the upsets with that of close races (won by less than 2 points). Don't know if it might be interesting.

Rated as tossup - close (15) :

Wallis-et-Futuna-AL
Corse-du-Sud-1
Bouches-du-Rhône-11
Vaucluse-5
Vosges-2
Loiret-2
Indre-et-Loire-2
Sarthe-5
Seine-Maritime-7
Oise-2
Saône-et-Loire-4
Doubs-2
Loiret-6
Vienne-4
Calvados-5

Rated as tossup - not close (12) :

Corse-du-Sud-2
Drôme-1
Drôme-3
Haute-Loire-2
Yonne-1
Ille-et-Vilaine-6
Seine-et-Marne-9
Mayotte-2
Saône-et-Loire-1
Vendée-2
Vendée-5
Orne-1

Rated as lean/favored - close (7) :

Aveyron-1
Yvelines-7
Val-d'Oise-2
Val-d'Oise-7
Haute-Garonne-3 (favored)
Yonne-2
Gard-2

Rated as lean/favored - not close (5) :

Territoire-de-Belfort-2
Nord-5
Loire-4 (favored)
Maine-et-Loire-6
Manche-3