French Legislative Elections 2012: Hashemite's Guide and Predictions

[big bad fab]

I love how the last remaining Royalists in France are a bunch of lefties. How ironic.

"équitable", "bien commun", "justice", "écologie humaine": these aren't leftist concepts but old catholic ones...
The society, under the left laïcism, has drifted from equity to equality, from "common good" to "solidarity", from "environmentalism" to "ecologism", from "fairness" to "affirmative action", but the basics were there.
And this young person sums this up quite well !
For some months -years ?- now, since Sarkozy became really a liability for the right (2009-2010), I've asked myself if I shouldn't be a royalist, after all

Sorry, don't use this post already outside the subject to make this thread drift even more


To stay focused: an IFOP poll on Gard 2nd: PS 29.5 / UMP 29.5 / FN 29.5 (yeah, this piece of crap of Gilbert Collard; even Gollnisch is more respectable) in the 1st round.

PS 37 / FN 32 / UMP 31 in the 2nd round

Sh***ty FN

[minionofmidas]

That is one hilarious poll.

[homelycooking]

You can find more of them here: http://lolgislatives2012.tumblr.com/
LOLgislatives, justement...

Great website!

It seems like the PS and UMP got first pick at the eye candy for their posters and the minor parties are left with the remainders: small-time street thugs, anemic-looking old ladies, hapless felons, hoboes, the Great Unwashed and Unshaven...



Monsieur Le Denmat looks so decidedly anti-fun...

[rob in cal]

On the French sondage legislative page they have a lot of district polls.  I compiled the following info on seats where the presence of a FN candidate might have an impact, on UMP chances.
6th Seine, UMP victory goes from 10 in a two way, to 6 in a three way.
3rd Var, UMP wins by 18 in a three way.
7th Var, UMP victory margin goes from 24 to 15 from two way to three way.
2nd Pyrennees, a 50-50 split in a two way goes to a PS victory by 4 in a three way.
2nd Alpes, a UMP 10 point win in a two way goes to a PS victory by 1 in three way.
3rd Alpes, a UMP 24 point win goes to 13 in a three way.
4th Alpes, UMP wins a three way by 18.

[YL]

I love how the last remaining Royalists in France are a bunch of lefties. How ironic.

That poster seems to match fairly well with (the popular perception of) Prince Charles's views.

[big bad fab]

Thank you, Gaël, for your analysis on Nord
I've read it, at last...

[big bad fab]

Slightly revised...
But with one major change: Mélenchon will be beaten by the PS candidate in the first round !
And, eventually, I've tilted towards Jacky Hénin in Calais and I've unfortunately dropped the idea that Douillet will lose in Yvelines

I've published on my blog the last national and local polls (Pas-de-Calais 11th and Gard 2nd, among others).

Hope we'll have first results not too late on Sunday

[Hash]

So for those who are interested, I won't be liveblogging because it takes lots of effort, but I was planning to do some informal chat in Mibbit on some #legislatives2012 room. I hope at least Antonio and Fab can join me on there for some relaxed fun

[big bad fab]

Last last polls and seats projections on my blog (yes, there are 2 polls I've just discovered today )
Plus some graphs for Antonio

Tomorrow, I don't know Hash, because I'm exhausted... Maybe I'll have the courage to go to bed early... I may... I might...

[Antonio the Sixth]

So for those who are interested, I won't be liveblogging because it takes lots of effort, but I was planning to do some informal chat in Mibbit on some #legislatives2012 room. I hope at least Antonio and Fab can join me on there for some relaxed fun

J'y serai !

I'll probably join discussions by 19h30, once Italy-Spain is over. Since we're both opposed to spoilers, I assume the important things begin at 20 ?

[Niemeyerite]

So for those who are interested, I won't be liveblogging because it takes lots of effort, but I was planning to do some informal chat in Mibbit on some #legislatives2012 room. I hope at least Antonio and Fab can join me on there for some relaxed fun

J'y serai !

I'll probably join discussions by 19h30, once Italy-Spain is over. Since we're both opposed to spoilers, I assume the important things begin at 20 ?

Spain will win

[big bad fab]

So for those who are interested, I won't be liveblogging because it takes lots of effort, but I was planning to do some informal chat in Mibbit on some #legislatives2012 room. I hope at least Antonio and Fab can join me on there for some relaxed fun

J'y serai !

I'll probably join discussions by 19h30, once Italy-Spain is over. Since we're both opposed to spoilers, I assume the important things begin at 20 ?

The important things begin far later, in fact, and on the Internet. 577 elections, you know
Medias will keep repeating some useless "ballottages" without giving you real results, or keep repeating that Emmanuelli or someone is reelected in the first round (what a surprise), or keep repeating their after-vote polls that won't give us any clue for the 2nd round.

[Antonio the Sixth]

You mean we don't get most constituency results by 20h30-21h ? Shame.

Spain will win

Don't be too confident. Italy is able to surprise everybody, for good or for bad.

[Hash]

Once again, in case some morons are tempted, DO NOT POST LEAKED RESULTS.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Or, rather, if you want to... well... post them like this. (quote this post to see how... if it's not already obvious, etc).

[Andrea]

Once again, in case some morons are tempted, DO NOT POST LEAKED RESULTS.

why?

oh well, I have already posted them in another thread. I suppose I am a moron.

[Hash]

I don't mind leaked overseas actual results, I meant the useless exit polls which people are so eager to leak.

[Andrea]

I don't mind leaked overseas actual results, I meant the useless exit polls which people are so eager to leak.

Ah, ok.
I have cancelled the overseas results in the other thread anyway now.

[Niemeyerite]

I agree with Hash. Exit polls are usually useless... and when they're not useless, they're harmful, xD

[Filuwaúrdjan]

How long until polls close?

[minionofmidas]

Half an hour ago, most of them. In half an hour or 90 minutes, the rest of them, which is why results will only start coming through round then.

[Hash]

Soooo, yeah, I've opened the #legislatives2012 chatroom on Mibbit. Join me, it's getting lonely.

[Pete Whitehead]

Whats a ZUS? Is it like a council estate/housing project? (I was reading the description of Roubaix upthread). Great job btw. have you done all circonsriptions now?

[MaxQue]

Whats a ZUS? Is it like a council estate/housing project? (I was reading the description of Roubaix upthread). Great job btw. have you done all circonsriptions now?

It's a "Sensitive Urban Zone", which is a poor place, usually made of towers and/or gigantic concrete buildings, which are filled with poor people, which are in a disrepair state.

A 2000-era slum, in short. None is choosing to live there.

[Pete Whitehead]

Thanks. Is there anywhere available online census stats by constituency (or other level, commune, department whatever). It would be particularly interesting to see figures for ethnic minority groups, religious groups etc, but I don;t think the French collate that data