Italian General Election 2012 ?

[Antonio the Sixth]

You can't imagine how much I wish this to happen. We can't spend one more day with such a crippled, ridiculed, bankrupt government in such a tough situation. We need change, and need it now.

If elections are held soon, the left should be considered as heavily favorite to win as long as it unites (the coalition system makes it absolutely necessary). It has held a solid and steady lead for a while now.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Confidence vote on Tuesday...after a few deputies left the majority,this might well be Berlusconi's last confidence vote.

Crossing my fingers... f**ing crossing my fingers. But I've seen so much disappointments until now that I'm ready to everything.

[Antonio the Sixth]

what are the difference between senatorial and chamber electoral system ?

The House seats are allocated based on nationwide PR, with the guarantee for the winning coalition to get at least 55% of the total seats. The Senate system is basically the same, except that it's based on regions (meaning that different coalitions can win 55% of seats from region to region).

[Antonio the Sixth]

Yeah, a 10 points margin is what I'd expect... provided that the left is united.

[Antonio the Sixth]

The left WILL be united,the only party that might (and hopefully will) NOT be part of the coalition is the FdS (the same communists which created all sorts of trouble in the Prodi governments).

You don't want to govern Italy right now. It's best for the right to win another election, it will be worth it, they will be discredited for the next generation or more. If the left wins, the left in Italy is finished for the rest of our lifetimes.

You might be right. If the left wins in Italy, it might be at risk to fail in the same way as in Greece, Portugal and Spain, and I sure don't wish that.

However, there is something more important than the left's interest : Italy's interest. Italy has one problem today, that is Berlusconi. Financial analysts, economists and everybody agree to say that, if Italy were ruled by anyone else, its financial situation would be far less risky. Its economy is pretty solid (for a southern country's standards) and its debt isn't enormous (it's only a tad higher than France's). Berlusconi is a threat for Italy, that's why he must be kicked out. At any cost.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I agree with you that the economy is solid, the debt isn't enormous. Both those things don't matter now. A speculative attack has already started on Italy, and when you face a speculative attack, it doesn't matter how strong you are, you will fall. The financial analysts, economists and everybody else aren't telling the full picture. Italy's fate will be determined in Brussels and Berlin, the only question being decided by this election is who will take the blame will the disaster almost inevitably strikes.

Italy is too big to fail the way Greece did : either European leaders will eventually act in a reasonable way and really pull Italy out of the speculative attack, or the Eurozone is screwed. And with the Eurozone, all what was left of economic prosperity to western Europe.

I like to think people won't be that stupid.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Heard about another PdL guy leaving. So that's three if I count correctly. And guess what ? Berlusconi survived the last confidence vote by... 3 votes.

Not deluding myself though, he still has the time to buy three other random whores. My attitude here is and will remain "wait and see".

[Antonio the Sixth]

Of course all of this had to break during the final week of our election season here (the news of the resignation came during Election day while I was driving across my city) so I haven't been able to follow it that closely.

I read that Gianni Letta might step in after Berlusconi is gone. Is this likely or could it be Alfano or even someone else?

It wouldn't work. The PdL has clearly lost its majority, and the only two options are either a technical government or dissolution. Hoping for the first one, BTW.

[Antonio the Sixth]

What kind of election system you will have?

Unless there is some reform (which is what the left wants), it's PR with majority bonus.

Basically, people vote for party lists, and those party lists are allied in "coalitions". The coalition that gets the most votes wins 55% of seats, other 45% are distributed among parties that got more than 4%.

[Antonio the Sixth]

What kind of system left suports.

It's unclear, but from the few I've heard they seem to support a majoritarian system (FPP or 2-round). That kind of makes me sad, but I understand the left being constantly annoyed by stupid far-left outfits (see Prodi's government).

[Antonio the Sixth]

Of course they support a vaguely majoritarian system with a degree of personal electoral accountability; hasn't that been one of the causes of reformers in Italy since the Clean Hands business?

Yeah, indeed. Back in 1993, they established a system with was 75% FPP and 25% PR, but it worked like sh*t and didn't even prevent politcal fragmentation. As criticizable as the current system is, it's an improvement compared to the previous one.

[Antonio the Sixth]

As criticizable as the current system is, it's an improvement compared to the previous one.

How so? Rigged PR systems are about the worst things possible. Unless you like performing monkeys.

Edit: do you mean from the point of view of being opposed to political fragmentation?

This system was one of the messiest things ever seen. Yeah, political fragmentation was even worse, because big parties didn't run candidates in all constituencies in order to ensure their smaller allies parliamentary representation. Add to that compensatory PR, and we election results becoming horribly hard to read and the final seats results which, despite being messy, didn't represent the electorate. It basically cumulated the flaws of both systems.

[Antonio the Sixth]

It seems like IRV would be the best system for Italy.

I kind of agree, yeah. PR works fine in countries where parties have more discipline and are limited to a reasonable number.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I find it funny how in Italy left-wingers support majority and right-wingers support PR, while it's more or less the contrary everywhere else. Anyways, I'm personally kind of mixed on this issue. The current system doesn't exactly work fine, its predecessor was even worse, and it's possible that no system would ever result in a clear mandate for a government. In the long term, a proportional system excluding smaller parties is what we'd need, but so far none of those has worked efficiently.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I think some in the Spanish left made some comments about looking into exploring a dose of FPTP iirc.

Really ? Meh... The Spanish PR is already pretty screwed up by the small size of consituencies...

[Antonio the Sixth]

Berlusconi about to resign, at 20:30 CEST. The House passed his austerity bill earlier this afternoon.

[Antonio the Sixth]

It's official.

[Antonio the Sixth]

From earlier this month:

I fear the PdL will try to spin the new situation in order to pretend they are in the opposition and gain a few points. I doubt it could significantly change things, though. People are fed up of Berlusconi.

[Antonio the Sixth]

The right reunifying would require Berlusconi clearly abandoning it (not just stepping aside and propping up his buddy Alfano) as well as some significant strategy change (giving less room to Lega, to be clear). It can happen, but not if PdL keeps acting as it has in these last days.

[Antonio the Sixth]

The right reunifying would require Berlusconi clearly abandoning it (not just stepping aside and propping up his buddy Alfano) as well as some significant strategy change (giving less room to Lega, to be clear). It can happen, but not if PdL keeps acting as it has in these last days.

I don't think Fini would comment on reunification unless Berlusconi was clearly out of the picture. Hopefully, they address the Lega Nord issue, too.

From what I've heard from Berlusconi's last declaration, he seems anything but retiring from politics. Maybe he's just deluded and will eventually be forced out by his fellow party members, but he could also be planning to remain the man behind the curtain. I don't know, future months will tell us.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Yeah, so an all-technical government. It's a pity, because it means there will be little solidarity between parties (having a PD and a PdL minister would have made it harder for these parties to criticize the government). At least those are competent guys who hopefully will do what they are for.

[Antonio the Sixth]

At least those are competent guys

How do you know that? Because they say they are?

I've never heard anybody denying it (even those who talk about the evil bankers' conspiracy didn't question their competence AFAIK). That doesn't mean they'll do well, but that makes me somewhat hopeful that the short-term threat can be overcome. A political government will take care of the structural reforms, and hopefully it will be a left-wing one.

[Antonio the Sixth]

For the Italians here: when do you think we'll see the next election? A friend of mine's father serves in Parliament and he gave me a very brief, "This government could last until 2013" non-answer. Does that seem likely?

I don't know how long it will last. It basically depends on the parliament, which can bring him down whenever it wants.

Personally, my position is simple : this government should last until the financial crisis is resolved. Until the spread comes back to reasonable level, or whatever indicator you want to use. As soon as the problem is solved, new elections should be called. If this means waiting until 2013, fine with it. Basically, the elections should occur as soon as possible. As a left-winger, I can only hope they are held soon.