Will D.C. Ever Go Republican?

[Antonio the Sixth]

It would require the two parties to basically switch positions on almost every issue. Won't happen in this century.

[Antonio the Sixth]

NY is far more democratic than CA. Also, expand the "GOP core" to most of the South excepted TX and the East Coast (or alternatively reduce the dem core to VT, RI, DC and HI).

[Antonio the Sixth]

Sorry for the bump, but let's say John Edwards vs. popular incumbent. We learn of Edwards' affair the week before the election. Still Dem hold?

Yes, without a doubt.

[Antonio the Sixth]

It'd have to be even more than that. Democrats win D.C. about 90-10 in presidential elections that are about 50-50 nationwide. Given the 90-10 split, Republicans would need a swing of about 41 points to win D.C. If you assume the same swing nationally, the Republican candidate would need to get about 91% of the vote nationwide for the swing in D.C. to equal a victory.

Obviously such a situation will never occur. Therefore, D.C. will never go Republican.

(This all of course assumes we stay under the current party system.)

Uniform national swing almost certainly breaks down at those levels.

You're certainly right. Just for fun, however : John McCain would actually have needed to get 88.56% nationwide to win DC. Barry Goldwater, the republican who performed the best in DC ever (don't ask me why ), would still have needed 73.97%. Reagan in 1984 (worst performance ever) would have needed 94.6%.

[Antonio the Sixth]

This is Uniform National Swing : you need to take into account the national result. Mondale got crushed by 18 points, yet still managed an exceptional performance in DC. As your list shows, LBJ got rounghly the same score than Mondale : but he was winning in a landslide nationwide ! Thus his performance should be highly relativized.