US Regions - Michigan

[Antonio the Sixth]

Here we continue with Michigan.

Here are the two regions materialized on maps, in order to avoid confusion (light shades mean hypothetical).

Midwest :

Rust Belt :

Please try to think about these options out of their context : the question isn't about the regions themselves, just about Michigan.

[Antonio the Sixth]

See, what would Cinyc's "great lakes" region result in ? A far too big region (well, NE ist still bigger but we don't have much choice there), encomprising OH, IN, MI, WI and IL.

That's still acceptable, but then what do you do with the three remaining Midwest States : MN, IA, and MO ? Three States is a bit low for a region... So, you'd probably propose to merge them with the Plains. While as you proved me this can make sense democraphically, does it make politically ? Having a New Deal Era democratic sronghold like Minnesota and the swing States or IA and MO in the same region as four of the most historically republican States (only South Dakota was, a handful of times, more dem than the average since 1932). Politically, that's a true sacrilege.

So, once again I had to make a tough choice, but I think I made the best one looking at a political perspective.

[Antonio the Sixth]

See, what would Cinyc's "great lakes" region result in ? A far too big region (well, NE ist still bigger but we don't have much choice there), encomprising OH, IN, MI, WI and IL.

That's still acceptable, but then what do you do with the three remaining Midwest States : MN, IA, and MO ? Three States is a bit low for a region... So, you'd probably propose to merge them with the Plains. While as you proved me this can make sense democraphically, does it make politically ? Having a New Deal Era democratic sronghold like Minnesota and the swing States or IA and MO in the same region as four of the most historically republican States (only South Dakota was, a handful of times, more dem than the average since 1932). Politically, that's a true sacrilege.

So, once again I had to make a tough choice, but I think I made the best one looking at a political perspective.

I think you are looking too much at the presidential results alone. The plains states still have significant ties to their traditional Dem bases, and did not flip them like the South did over the last 50 years. Much of this goes back before the New Deal to the Grange movement. The Plains states still produce long tenured Dems in Congress as well as prominent Dem Governors. What sets MN apart is the population of its urban center, which is matched only by MO on the plains, and the impact of the northern Iron Range which provides a huge tilt in favor of the Dems.

Still, you won't convince me that Minnesota and Iowa are politically similar to Plains...
Plains have some kind of congressional Blue Dog democrats such as Nelson, but there is no comparison with MN's liberal DFL congressmen. All right, South Dakota had McGovern, but it's literally the only example of left-wing democratic Senators in the Plains that comes to my mind. Instead, Minnesota had Humphrey, Mondale and now Franken (similarly to Feingold in Wisconsin).
IMO, MN and WI have a strong tradition of Roosevelt/La Follette progressivism, while Plains' ideology is more like Bryan-style populism. That's why the former are moderate dem-leaning States and th elatter are uber-GOP areas in Presidential elections.

[Antonio the Sixth]

It seems to me that you are trying to weight the political ideology of a state so highly, that it outweighs everything else.

And in the same way I think you give too much importance to demographic/sociological patterns at the expense of ideology and actual vote. It's just a question of points of view.

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You mean something like that ?

Might be, but hard to do.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Well, of course this map is certainly more right that the 10-11 regions map we will eventually draw. However, I think this map will still have some interest anyways.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I'd agree with cinyc on the similarity with Ohio, so Rust Belt.