New York Siena : Biden +7

[Respect and Compassion]

This definitely corroborates my firsthand real life experiences in noticing the shifts in sentiment since three years ago.

An NYC acquaintance of mine who used to post in this forum before getting banned is proud that New York is seeing a massive swing, I told him that Trump will still lose NYC by a decent amount but he seems to think that being behind by only 29 points in NYC according to Siena is a huge win...lol

well, I guess it does suggest a popular vote win..and I definitely do not expect NYC to swing massively right while the swing states don't swing enough (which is what happened in 2022). This is because it'll be a Presidential race as opposed to what it's like in midterms, where state-by-state variations in funding and local & statewide machine dynamics matter much more

[Respect and Compassion]

Yikes! Not good for Biden

I disagree.  This is not good for Trump.  For Trump and Biden to be roughly tied nationally but Biden is only up by 7 in NY means that Trump is likely behind in swing states.

I don’t see a world where NY swings dramatically to the right but swing states don’t. Ultimately, I think NY will see a modest swing to Trump but nothing too wild.

Happened in 2022

I was about to tell you "welcome to Atlas" because I've never seen you before but I noticed you have over 2k posts lol

anyway, while it happened in 2022 I don't expect it to happen in 2024 because of the fact that Trump will bring out lower propensity working class voters that 2022 Republicans did not. Also I don't expect Trump to get Lee Zeldin's performance, but he may emulate Joe Pinion's performance against Chuck Schumer. At the same time, his Georgia performance will likely be more similar to 2022 election denier Burt Jones's, his Wisconsin performance will likely be more similar to Ron Johnson's 2022 performance except he'll do even better in the driftless and northwestern WI, his PA performance will far outperform Mehmet Oz's in Western and Northeastern PA and may even outperform Oz a bit in SEPA. In Nevada he'll have more credibility with noncollege hispanic and white voters than Adam Laxalt did, and I expect him to outperform Lombardo. Same with AZ - and I think he'll utilize the early voting system to a much larger extent than 2022 AZ Repubs did. Michigan will be the cherry on top - polling indicates he's currently doing better there than he did in 2016, and he's definitely very different from Tudor Dixon (much more moderate on abortion, more cred with white working class voters).

All in all, while the swing in New York will be more intense than the swings in battleground states, it is very reasonable to expect the disparity in swing between NY and the battlegrounds to be much less severe than it was in 2022.