Predict KY-GOV

[Respect and Compassion]

This is one of those races where I'm really uncertain of the margin. My take is that Cameron is going to outperform the most Beshear friendly poll (aside from Emerson's Beshear+16). It seems that it's the Beshear+8 poll so I think Beshear will not get as high as +9. It *could* be the case that it ends up Beshear+6 like the WPA Intel / Club For Growth poll, but my gut tells me Cameron will outperform that one by a little bit. So I'll take the midpoint between Beshear+2 (from the recent co/efficient poll) and Beshear+6, which is Beshear+4.

There does seem to be ~10% of a chance that Cameron wins by a very slight margin. I'll be surprised if Cameron pulls off a win by more than 1%.

[Respect and Compassion]

This is one of those races where I'm really uncertain of the margin. My take is that Cameron is going to outperform the most Beshear friendly poll (aside from Emerson's Beshear+16). It seems that it's the Beshear+8 poll so I think Beshear will not get as high as +9. It *could* be the case that it ends up Beshear+6 like the WPA Intel / Club For Growth poll, but my gut tells me Cameron will outperform that one by a little bit. So I'll take the midpoint between Beshear+2 (from the recent co/efficient poll) and Beshear+6, which is Beshear+4.

There does seem to be ~10% of a chance that Cameron wins by a very slight margin. I'll be surprised if Cameron pulls off a win by more than 1%.

the averages of all the polls on this race is an average of about Beshear +6.75%. The doesn't seem too unreasonable.

in a state like Kentucky I'd expect the Republican to outperform the polling average, though in this case I don't expect it to be by much given Beshear's spending advantage and crossover appeal

[Respect and Compassion]

This is one of those races where I'm really uncertain of the margin. My take is that Cameron is going to outperform the most Beshear friendly poll (aside from Emerson's Beshear+16). It seems that it's the Beshear+8 poll so I think Beshear will not get as high as +9. It *could* be the case that it ends up Beshear+6 like the WPA Intel / Club For Growth poll, but my gut tells me Cameron will outperform that one by a little bit. So I'll take the midpoint between Beshear+2 (from the recent co/efficient poll) and Beshear+6, which is Beshear+4.

There does seem to be ~10% of a chance that Cameron wins by a very slight margin. I'll be surprised if Cameron pulls off a win by more than 1%.

Hm, is my Beshear+4 tentative prediction going to turn out to be more prescient than I realized?

I haven't updated it despite the last few polls, though the rosier-for-Cameron polls made me wonder if I should bump it down to Beshear+2.5 or something