The crucial statistic here is that the both the presidential and the senate race among people who have already voted are D+9, 54-45. Virtually no ticket splitters. I'm skeptical that the outstanding votes will have more ticket splitters when all's said and done. If Biden's winning Texas, Hegar's probably winning Texas. And I think Biden's winning Texas.
The D4P TX poll from a week earlier *did* show a gap of 6 points between presidential and senate among already voted, while this one shows no gap. I hope the newer poll is more accurate (but clearly there are at least some ticket splitters).
¯\_(ツ)_/¯
