IA-Monmouth: Biden+3/5

[tagimaucia]

Why is Mr. Trump supposed to lose by a wider margin with a low turnout model? Usually that should benefit Dems. That said, IA will swing back hard, though I'm not sold on Biden winning IA.

I think its possible that lower propensity voters in a nearly all-white state like Iowa are much more likely to be non-college educated whites who probably would lean Trump if they actually voted, while in a state like, say... Texas or Arizona, lower propensity voters are much more likely to be non-white?