TIPP: MI - Biden +13, FL - Biden +11

[tagimaucia]

These polls appear to be sponsored by a hardcore Trumpist website too. Run by a group that includes the guy who wrote the "Flight 93 Election" article (and was in the Trump administration for a while).

[tagimaucia]

Michigan poll is junk
54% was college educated and only 18% have never been to college.
Florida is too
Almost 60% educated

Lmao are people actually taking these polls seriously because 538 said A/b?
Its just like Marist had a A+ lmao.

Good points. What would be the results if they were weighted properly by education?

My quick back of the envelope calculation suggests that MI would be way closer (All the way down to Biden+3 I think? but Florida would still be like Biden +9 if weighted properly because their no college sample is still pro Biden and not *that* different from their College educated samples)

[tagimaucia]

Michigan poll is junk
54% was college educated and only 18% have never been to college.
Florida is too
Almost 60% educated

Lmao are people actually taking these polls seriously because 538 said A/b?
Its just like Marist had a A+ lmao.

Michigan exit polls in 2016 showed 20% of voters had high school or less education.
Considering the share of the national population earning a bachelor’s degree increases by 1% every 2-3 years, 18% high school or less education in 2020 seems just about right.

At the upper end, the poll showed 16% of Michigan voters with graduate degrees, compared with 15% in 2016 exit polls.

https://www.cnn.com/election/2016/results/exit-polls/michigan/president

Smart data people (the ones I'm thinking about are mostly Democratic consultants) have been pretty much screaming or a while that the education breakdowns in exit polls are not reliable and heavily overestimate college educated voters and more educated voters generally.  I assume they know what they're talking about.