If Trump wins IA while getting crushed Carter 1980 style and Ernst narrowly wins reelection even as Democrats easily take the Senate and gain 10 House seats, will this be enough to persuade the "IA is still a true Tossup/swing state" that the state might have a slight Republican lean?
IA definitely has a republican lean at this point, but I think its also true that it has a record of being a lot more swingy/volatile than the average state. It has the only county in the US that went from Obama+20 (in 2012, not even 2008) to Trump +20!
