IA-PPP: Trump +1

[Gracile]

https://secure.emilyslist.org/page/-/IowaResults.pdf

Donald Trump (R-inc) 48%
Joe Biden (D) 47%

[libertpaulian]

Biden should compete here a little bit, but it should be a low-priority state.  Just appear enough in the state to help Finkenauer, Axne, and whichever Dem is running to replace Loebsack.  If he's having a big night, maybe his appearances get him over the top.

[SaneDemocrat]

This is a 50-41 Trump sample too

[indietraveler]

This is in line with what I expect. If all things hold Trump gets a result closer to the 2018 governors race than his 2016 performance. Biden will easily outperform Clinton but some of you aren't going to believe it until November 4.

This should put to rest that Iowa is Safe R or somehow improves on his 2016 performance.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

This is in line with what I expect. If all things hold Trump gets a result closer to the 2018 governors race than his 2016 performance. Biden will easily outperform Clinton but some of you aren't going to believe it until November 4.

This should put to rest that Iowa is Safe R or somehow improves on his 2016 performance.

If double digit unemployment, a tone-deaf response to nationwide protests, and rank incompetence on everything from COVID-19 to in-house management aren’t enough to return Iowa to the blue column, please tell us what would

[indietraveler]

This is in line with what I expect. If all things hold Trump gets a result closer to the 2018 governors race than his 2016 performance. Biden will easily outperform Clinton but some of you aren't going to believe it until November 4.

This should put to rest that Iowa is Safe R or somehow improves on his 2016 performance.

If double digit unemployment, a tone-deaf response to nationwide protests, and rank incompetence on everything from COVID-19 to in-house management aren’t enough to return Iowa to the blue column, please tell us what would

Where did I say it was returning?

[Pollster]

By Congressional district:

IA-01: Biden 53/42
IA-02: Biden 53/41
IA-03: Trump 53/42
IA-04: Trump 53/42

IA-01: Greenfield 54/37
IA-02: Greenfield 56/36
IA-03: Ernst 50/41
IA-04: Ernst 48/34

These subsamples are smaller and have higher margins of error. If anything, we're probably seeing a perfect demonstration of the central limit theorem here.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Biden will do better than Clinton here ofc, but I still think Trump wins by 6-7 points

[wbrocks67]

Biden will do better than Clinton here ofc, but I still think Trump wins by 6-7 points

then that's really not doing much better than Clinton...

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Biden will do better than Clinton here ofc, but I still think Trump wins by 6-7 points

then that's really not doing much better than Clinton...

Ehh, it's about 3 points better which is still a good amount. It's just that Iowa went for Trump by almost 10 points which makes it sound low, but it is quite a bit.

[Senator-elect Spark]

Trump still wins IA by a lot.

[Person Man]

My guess is that is that Trump wins by 5 if he loses nationally by 5.

[Brittain33]

SN2903, is this an accurate poll or should we throw it in the trash?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trump still wins IA by a lot.

Hubbard only lost by 3 to Kim Reynolds

[Zaybay]

Trump approval being 45/52 means that the undecideds likely dont have a good opinion of the president. Not good, this potentially could be another serious state the Trump campaign has to contend with.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Cook moving IA 4 to safe R was a mistake, IA is in play

[DrScholl]

I doubt that Trump wins Iowa again in this climate. The midwest reacts strongly to declining economic conditions.

[Tender Branson]

Iowa is definitely a swing state again this year.

Don’t understand why Trump should be favoured there ...

[GeneralMacArthur]

Biden should compete here a little bit, but it should be a low-priority state.  Just appear enough in the state to help Finkenauer, Axne, and whichever Dem is running to replace Loebsack.  If he's having a big night, maybe his appearances get him over the top.

Theresa Greenfield is the most important race.  She has a legitimate shot at taking down Joni Ernst.

[MT Treasurer]

If Trump wins IA while getting crushed Carter 1980 style and Ernst narrowly wins reelection even as Democrats easily take the Senate and gain 10 House seats, will this be enough to persuade the "IA is still a true Tossup/swing state" that the state might have a slight Republican lean?

[tagimaucia]

If Trump wins IA while getting crushed Carter 1980 style and Ernst narrowly wins reelection even as Democrats easily take the Senate and gain 10 House seats, will this be enough to persuade the "IA is still a true Tossup/swing state" that the state might have a slight Republican lean?

IA definitely has a republican lean at this point, but I think its also true that it has a record of being a lot more swingy/volatile than the average state.  It has the only county in the US that went from Obama+20 (in 2012, not even 2008) to Trump +20!

[S019]

Iowa looks somewhat competitive, but I'd err on the side of caution, maybe I'd move it from Lean R to Tilt R, but I'm not convinced that this is a pure tossup, but it's not as secure for Republicans, as we thought. We'll see if this pattern continues, but Trump surely can't take this for granted, and he really shouldn't be campaigning in Iowa if he has a reasonable path to victory. This just confirms that a Biden quasi-landslide/semi-landslide is what the polls show right now.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

IA is the 51st seat for the Dems, if Ernst loses, we will see an expanded Dem majority. If she hangs on, its probably a 278 election

[WD]

Trump will probably win IA but it’ll closer than some people think.

[redjohn]

Obviously a bad poll. Biden could win the NPV by ~7 points and still lose IA by a few points, imo.