Trump approval ratings thread 1.6

[tagimaucia]

Biden has just accused or sexually assaulting women again and the Hunter Biden report is due out in Aug, by Congressional Rs and Rob Johnson. Chris Matthew's,  whom was biased towards Biden and the secular press has given Biden a free pass during primaries. The polls are gonna get tighter as they always have and Trump may indeed take a small lead by the his convention

269-269 tie and way back to White House is thru the R delegation in the House

Biden is a very weak candidate in a vacuum, but double digit negative real GDP shrinkage and double digit unemployment will hurt Trump more than any of the above will hurt Biden. The horse race will be worse for Trump in a few months, not better, imo.  Recessions and economic contractions usually take a couple quarters to sink in and really take a political toll and that toll will come at the worst possible time for Trump.

[tagimaucia]

“Perot stole the election from Bush” is a myth. The 92 exit poll found that Perot voters would have split 50-50 between Bush and Clinton if he weren’t on the ballot. The fact is that Bush’s approval was in the 30s, the recession was technically over but the recovery in employment didn’t really pick up until 93. And it’s just incredibly hard for a party to win the presidency four times in a row.

[tagimaucia]

Incorrect, Trump wins ONE of PA, WI, or MI and he’ll win re-election. I think he has good odds of keeping one of those. That’s the election.

I don’t think Biden has trailed in a single Arizona poll in a long time, it will almost certainly be to the left of Wisconsin this year.

[tagimaucia]

Climate Nexus, April 19, 1917 RV

Trump approval:

Approve 45
Disapprove 52

Strongly approve 26
Strongly disapprove 40

2020: Biden 49, Trump 40

GCB: D 50, R 40

Once again, he's underperforming his approval rating.

Based on the historical data that I've seen, favorable-unfavorable ratings are a bit more predictive of horserace #s and election outcomes than approval ratings. And Trump's net favorables tend to be just slightly worse than his approvals. 

[tagimaucia]

https://twitter.com/Civiqs/status/1267472366323433475?s=20

This is the highest disapproval (56%) Trump has ever had on Civiqs, which usually seems pretty conservative and doesn’t move around that much. The only times he hit 55% before were during the attempts to repeal Obamacare and the run up to the passage of the tax bill.

[tagimaucia]

It seems to me that the economic situation hasn’t been driving Trumps approval or standing in the horse race much at all, at least up to this point (seeing as how his economic approval is still positive in the polls I’ve seen). It’s clearly been mostly about his reaction to Covid and BLM/protests.

[tagimaucia]

Back to reality, the Biden bump us gone, it looks like we are gonna go a Likely voter screen, the natl polls which had Biden up by 12 were registered voters, it's a 279 election again

I'm not seeing much evidence of any shift in the polls unless you cherry pick. What am I missing?

And out of curiosity I did a simple average of the last 10 national RV polls and the last 10 national LV polls on 538.  The RV polls were Biden +10.2, the LV ones were +8.9.  Not a huge gap.

[tagimaucia]

Back to reality, the Biden bump us gone, it looks like we are gonna go a Likely voter screen, the natl polls which had Biden up by 12 were registered voters, it's a 279 election again

I'm not seeing much evidence of any shift in the polls unless you cherry pick. What am I missing?

And out of curiosity I did a simple average of the last 10 national RV polls and the last 10 national LV polls on 538.  The RV polls were Biden +10.2, the LV ones were +8.9.  Not a huge gap.

Some of the improvement of R polls have been into their attempt to pass PD reform.  The Rs arent giving this issue away to Dems, but that's what I am guessing.

Although the natl polls have been D friendly, we dont elect Prez by popular vote, we elect Ds by EC votes and NC, FL and AZ, and even MI, Trump has improved. It was Biden plus 16 a couple of weeks ago in MI, now it's down to single digits. The same in FL, Biden was ahead In FL and NC by 4 to 6 points, they are ties.

You're drawing pretty sweeping conclusions from a few state polls mainly by pollsters that nearly everyone regards as lower quality (Change and Gravis). I guess we'll see in the next few weeks if you're right.

And w/r/t Change, they actually show Biden doing better in 3 of 4 of those states than two weeks earlier (and in the 4th, Michigan, they show no change).