Saturday, August 21, 2010 - Australian Federal Election

[Phony Moderate]

So when is the likely announcment date?

[Phony Moderate]

Have there been any polls on vote preference since Julia Gillard took over?

There's been one, which shows Labor ahead by 53% to 47% on two-part preference.

[Phony Moderate]

There seems to be an incredible lack of discussion on this, at least compared to the 2007 Federal Election.

[Phony Moderate]

Morgan Poll:

Labor - 57.5%
Coalition - 42.5%



http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-08-12/gillard-pulls-ahead-of-abbott-fortnight-before-election-morgan-poll-says.html

[Phony Moderate]

Australia's Mori?

[Phony Moderate]

Talking of rogue polls, did the infamous ICM poll in April 1997 (which showed a five-point Labour lead, the lowest for over four years) cause any Labour supporters to fear another 1992?

[Phony Moderate]

The Morgan Poll, translated into seats:

Labor - 109
Coalition - 38
Others - 3

[Phony Moderate]

That looks like something out of Prime Minister Forever.

[Phony Moderate]

That's true, of course.

---

Nielsen poll: ALP 53-49. Sizeable swing to the ALP from the last Nielsen poll.

Some marginals polling is out as well, and is pretty good for the ALP, especially in Victoria.

That poll represented 102% of all Australian Opinion?.... Interesting.

53-47...

Which translated into seats would be:

Labor - 90
Coalition - 57
Others - 3

http://www.abc.net.au/elections/federal/2010/calculator/

[Phony Moderate]

That's true, of course.

---

Nielsen poll: ALP 53-49. Sizeable swing to the ALP from the last Nielsen poll.

Some marginals polling is out as well, and is pretty good for the ALP, especially in Victoria.

That poll represented 102% of all Australian Opinion?.... Interesting.

53-47...

Which translated into seats would be:

Labor - 90
Coalition - 57
Others - 3

http://www.abc.net.au/elections/federal/2010/calculator/

On UNS.

Yep.

[Phony Moderate]

The bookies are making Labor the pretty firm favorites, ftr.

http://www.oddschecker.com/specials/politics-and-election/australian-federal-election/winning-party

[Phony Moderate]

http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen/2010/08/galaxy-marginal-seat-poll.html

I don't know about Australia, but polls in marginals have been pretty bad in this country, ftr.

[Phony Moderate]

ABC did a live stream last time and presumably will again. And they'll have Antony Green, the election geek's election geek.

For a moment, I thought you meant Anthony King, the Professor who has appeared on many BBC Election Nights.

This stream was posted by me when Rudd was being removed. It seems currently not to be working, but it's not a 24-hour stream, so....yeah. It might be working for election night.

What time do polls open and close?

[Phony Moderate]

A hung parliament is certainly a possibility.

Any thoughts on how Bennelong will go?

[Phony Moderate]

Australia have an American-way of counting the votes, right?

[Phony Moderate]

There's a "mega-poll" coming out tomorrow, apparently.

[Phony Moderate]

I don't know. It was mentioned on the ABC Election website.

[Phony Moderate]

Is there an exit poll on election night? If so, is it released straight after the polls close?

[Phony Moderate]

Gillard is in favor of Australia becoming a Republic when the Queen dies:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-10997630

[Phony Moderate]

All seats which have a majority of 5% or less, regardless of party.

[Phony Moderate]

An....errrr...."interesting" Facebook page:

http://www.facebook.com/pages/friends-dont-let-friends-vote-for-Tony-Abbott/106582159380758?v=wall

[Phony Moderate]

How many more polls can we expect to be released?

[Phony Moderate]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-11020897

[Phony Moderate]

The Sky stream is worse than useless, at least for me.

[Phony Moderate]

The audio is working on the Sky stream at the moment.