The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread

[pbrower2a]

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 48%, +2.

Disapprove 51%, -3.

"Strongly Approve" is at 22%, +2.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 37%, -2.

Substantial swing, and back to normal.  Take a good look at this:

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_US_0412513.pdf

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The GOP needs to change this pattern of perception if it isn't to face a calamity in 2012 

[pbrower2a]

How is NE-02 so deep red?!

PPP polled Nebraska a couple of months ago. Although the state as a whole is solidly Republican, NE-02 showed a strong positive approval for the President unlike the other two districts. NE-02 is most of Greater Omaha, and it is liberal by Nebraska standards. In 2012, NE-01 (eastern Nebraska other than Omaha and some of its suburbs) voted about like Texas, NE-02 voted much like Indiana or North Carolina, and NE-03 (western and central Nebraska,  one of the most right-wing congressional districts in America) voted much like Wyoming.

If Kansas, a state fairly similar in its voting to Nebraska, apportioned its electoral votes  in accordance with Congressional districts and two other votes at large, then one might see districts containing Kansas City or Wichita allotting an electoral vote for a Democrat in some elections even if the state as a whole votes firmly Republican.

[pbrower2a]

New York State, Quinnipiac:

New York State voters approve 54 - 42 percent of the job President Barack Obama is doing, almost identical to his approval ratings in January and February polls.

FL (Suffolk University):

41% Approve
48% Disapprove

http://www.suffolk.edu/46395.html

Re Florida: although with only a 41% approval (but 11% undecided!) he would still defeat about everyone but Romney, with whom he has a virtual tie. The political Winter of Discontent applies even in a state in which many go to to get away from winter -- at least to the Governor.

NC (Elon University):

48% Approve
45% Disapprove

51% Favorable
41% Unfavorable

http://www.elon.edu/docs/e-web/elonpoll/041511_PollMethodology.pdf

At the most this poll updates the March poll in North Carolina from a "C" to a "D" -- that's for a month and not a grade. PPP is polling North Carolina this weekend, and because that poll will show some matchups, it will be more interesting.  
 

Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval); 90% red if >70%
40-42% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
43% to 45% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
46-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)
<50%  Approval greater: 20% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green


Months (All polls are from 2010 or 2011):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

Or here:

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

(before any campaigning begins in earnest)

assuming no significant changes before early 2012 -- snicker, snicker!

           
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 138
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   83
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 57
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 41
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 40
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 32
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   54



44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 45%, 5% at 46% or 47%, 4% between 48% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.


But --

I have added a yellow category for states in which President Obama defeats all recognized major GOP nominees (so far Huckabee, Romney, Gingrich, Palin, and where available, Thune, Daniels, Christie, and Pawlenty). This will be a yellow category supplanting those in pale blue or and white.

I am also adding a green category for those states that would otherwise be in white, pale pink, or pale blue -- maybe medium blue, as I have seen only one state in that category -- in which who the nominee is matters. This can be rescinded as one of the potential nominees drops out formally or is rendered irrelevant in primaries. I am also adding a deep green color for states in which  only the 'right' nominee has a chance. So far I will label that as "H" for Huckabee or else Obama, "R" for Romney or else Obama, or other initials as appropriate for  anyone else (Gingrich? Daniels? Thune?) should such cases emerge. A tan color is used for a tie.

             
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 138
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   83
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 57
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 14
yellow                        close, but Obama wins against any major Republican candidate  10
Obama wins against all but Huckabee but ties Huckabee 15
Obama wins against all but  Romney 49
close, but Obama wins against a 'blunder' of a nominee 60
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 6
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%  54  

[pbrower2a]

A lot of national polls out today:

Gallup: 41-50

Democracy Corps: 44-50

http://www.democracycorps.com/wp-content/files/fq4.pdf

PPP/DailyKos: 48-47

http://www.dailykos.com/weeklypolling/2011/4/7

CNN: 48-50

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2011/images/04/11/rel6a.pdf

Reuters/Ipsos:

46-49

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2011/Reuters_Ipsos_National_April2011.pdf

YouGov:

43-52

http://big.assets.huffingtonpost.com/20110412trackingreport.pdf

Gallup seems to be slower with its polls than other pollsters. It could be that Gallup gets right how things were the previous week, which isn't bad when approval and disapproval are stable.  As I recall, Gallup had a far more approving sample than did Rasmussen last week than did Rasmussen (a faster pollster) and now such is reversed. When the President takes a populist stand that suggests how he will campaign in 2012 and the GOP majority in the House tries to assert that nothing is wrong with America that can't be solved by letting the super-rich grab more than they have been getting, maybe the President wins a few points.

PPP will be polling Iowa (barely D in 2000 and barely R in 2004 in Presidential elections involving Dubya) and North Carolina this weekend. Such should be interesting. New Republican governors in WI, MI, OH, PA, ME, GA, and FL are extremely unpopular; we shall see if the pattern holds true in Iowa.   

Please thank me if you see a matchup between President Obama and Governor Mitch Daniels (R, IN). I suggested it, even if as an anonymous poster.

Fasten your seat belts; we are in for a bumpy ride.

[pbrower2a]

Supposedly, PPP was going to poll North Carolina last weekend. If PPP doesn't throw it out, I would -- because of the tornadoes. You saw it here before I had any idea of the content of the poll. Many had concerns far more immediate than a Presidential election a year and a half year from now.

PPP cast off one Arizona poll due to the attempted assassination of Rep. Gabrielle Giffords, and I wouldn't be surprised if PPP suppresses this week's poll.  

Iowa will be available. 

[pbrower2a]

Anyone else find it ironic that the only Poll Obama's above water in is the FOX news poll?

http://www.foxnews.com/projects/pdf/FoxNewsPollBudget.pdf

Though another trend I've noticed is that Obama seems to do much better on general polls (Approve/Disapprove) than on specific issue polls (Economy, Deficit, Jobs, etc.).  Anyone have thoughts on why this is?  Does he just do really well on the stuff that isn't polled?

FoX News might be slightly more reliable on news than typical Russian media, but that's about it.

Outperforming Congress in getting his point across? Check.

Foreign policy? Maybe when other things don't go well, that looks better -- as with Richard Nixon.  

[pbrower2a]

New Jersey (Quinnipiac):

Obama gets a 51 - 45 percent job approval. Garden State voters like Obama more than they like his policies.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1299.xml?ReleaseID=1590

Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval); 90% red if >70%
40-42% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
43% to 45% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
46-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)
<50%  Approval greater: 20% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green


Months (All polls are from 2010 or 2011):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

Or here:

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

(before any campaigning begins in earnest)

assuming no significant changes before early 2012 -- snicker, snicker!

           
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 124
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   97
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 57
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 41
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 40
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 32
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   54



44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 45%, 5% at 46% or 47%, 4% between 48% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.


But --

I have added a yellow category for states in which President Obama defeats all recognized major GOP nominees (so far Huckabee, Romney, Gingrich, Palin, and where available, Thune, Daniels, Christie, and Pawlenty). This will be a yellow category supplanting those in pale blue or and white.

I am also adding a green category for those states that would otherwise be in white, pale pink, or pale blue -- maybe medium blue, as I have seen only one state in that category -- in which who the nominee is matters. This can be rescinded as one of the potential nominees drops out formally or is rendered irrelevant in primaries. I am also adding a deep green color for states in which  only the 'right' nominee has a chance. So far I will label that as "H" for Huckabee or else Obama, "R" for Romney or else Obama, or other initials as appropriate for  anyone else (Gingrich? Daniels? Thune?) should such cases emerge. A tan color is used for a tie.

             
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 124
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   97
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 57
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 14
yellow                        close, but Obama wins against any major Republican candidate  10
Obama wins against all but Huckabee but ties Huckabee 15
Obama wins against all but  Romney 49
close, but Obama wins against a 'blunder' of a nominee 60
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 6
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%  54  

[pbrower2a]

It's not a matchup, and it's only a partial poll, but I think that it is a reasonably-safe
conclusion about Alaska: Sarah Palin could never beat President Obama in 'her' state. I would guess that President Obama has at least 40% approval in Alaska because even with 'oily' politics, the state isn't exactly Utah or Wyoming.

http://www.dittmanresearch.com/pdfs/Political%20Approval%20Ratings%20Statewide%20March%202011.pdf

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Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval); 90% red if >70%
40-42% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
43% to 45% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
46-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)
<50%  Approval greater: 20% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green


Months (All polls are from 2010 or 2011):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

Or here:

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

(before any campaigning begins in earnest)

assuming no significant changes before early 2012 -- snicker, snicker!

           
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 124
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   97
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 57
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 41
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 40
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 32
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   54



44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 45%, 5% at 46% or 47%, 4% between 48% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.


But --

I have added a yellow category for states in which President Obama defeats all recognized major GOP nominees (so far Huckabee, Romney, Gingrich, Palin, and where available, Thune, Daniels, Christie, and Pawlenty). This will be a yellow category supplanting those in pale blue or and white.

I am also adding a green category for those states that would otherwise be in white, pale pink, or pale blue -- maybe medium blue, as I have seen only one state in that category -- in which who the nominee is matters. This can be rescinded as one of the potential nominees drops out formally or is rendered irrelevant in primaries. I am also adding a deep green color for states in which  only the 'right' nominee has a chance. So far I will label that as "H" for Huckabee or else Obama, "R" for Romney or else Obama, or other initials as appropriate for  anyone else (Gingrich? Daniels? Thune?) should such cases emerge. A tan color is used for a tie.

             
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 124
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   97
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 57
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 14
yellow                        close, but Obama wins against any major Republican candidate  10
Obama wins against all but Huckabee but ties Huckabee 15
Obama wins against all but  Romney 49
close, but Obama wins against a 'blunder' of a nominee 63
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 6
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%  54  
[/quote]

[pbrower2a]

Iowa Survey Results
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve .......................................................... 46%
Disapprove...................................................... 48%
Not sure .......................................................... 6%

Iowa is now a legitimate tossup.  Romney has a slight lead, and Huckabee nearly ties.

Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval); 90% red if >70%
40-42% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
43% to 45% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
46-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)
<50%  Approval greater: 20% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green


Months (All polls are from 2010 or 2011):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

Or here:

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

(before any campaigning begins in earnest)

assuming no significant changes before early 2012 -- snicker, snicker!

           
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 124
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   97
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 57
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 41
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 40
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 32
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   54



44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 45%, 5% at 46% or 47%, 4% between 48% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.


But --

I have added a yellow category for states in which President Obama defeats all recognized major GOP nominees (so far Huckabee, Romney, Gingrich, Palin, and where available, Thune, Daniels, Christie, and Pawlenty). This will be a yellow category supplanting those in pale blue or and white.

I am also adding a green category for those states that would otherwise be in white, pale pink, or pale blue -- maybe medium blue, as I have seen only one state in that category -- in which who the nominee is matters. This can be rescinded as one of the potential nominees drops out formally or is rendered irrelevant in primaries. I am also adding a deep green color for states in which  only the 'right' nominee has a chance. So far I will label that as "H" for Huckabee or else Obama, "R" for Romney or else Obama, or other initials as appropriate for  anyone else (Gingrich? Daniels? Thune?) should such cases emerge. A tan color is used for a tie.

             
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 124
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   97
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 49
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 14
yellow                        close, but Obama wins against any major Republican candidate  10
Obama wins against all but Huckabee but ties Huckabee 15
Obama wins against all but  Romney 55
close, but Obama wins against a 'blunder' of a nominee 63
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 6
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%  54  

[pbrower2a]

North Carolina gets about as much attention as any state, probably because PPP is located in North Carolina. PPP now shows the President winning against everyone:

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I was going to ignore any poll of state officials made during Tornado Weekend, but the tornadoes have nothing to do with the President. The President would barely win against Mike Huckabee (well within the margin of error) and by about a 4% margin (roughly the margin of error) against Romney.   The move of North Carolina from a tie only with Mike Huckabee to a likely Obama win results from the replacement  of a tie with a bare edge over Huckabee and supplants the judgment of an earlier poll.

Sarah Palin seems to be losing credibility as a campaigner -- fast:

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This is almost as bad as the rejections of her in some western states (CA, CO, NV, NM) with large numbers of people not native speakers of English. If such is how she fares in North Carolina, a state roughly 50-50 in its vote in 2008, then I can imagine her losing nationally on the scale of Landon in 1936, Goldwater in 1964, McGovern in 1972, or Mondale in 1984.

California - USC / LA Times / GQR (D):

53% Approve
42% Disapprove

58% Favorable
39% Unfavorable

http://gqrr.com/articles/2628/6573_USC-LATimes%20Results%20%284.25.11%29.pdf

Even with the partisan bias it looks reasonable. The most that accepting it would do is to accept it as an update, in which case nothing changes except the date of the latest poll.  

South Carolina (Winthrop University):

43% Approve
47% Disapprove

http://www.winthrop.edu/winthroppoll/default.aspx?id=9804

Pollster with which I am unfamiliar, but it changes nothing from January. If South Carolina is still this close, then the GOP is in big trouble in any effort to achieve the greatest goal of Senator Mitch McConnell, which is to make Barack Obama a one-term President.

 

Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval); 90% red if >70%
40-42% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
43% to 45% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
46-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)
<50%  Approval greater: 20% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green


Months (All polls are from 2010 or 2011):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

Or here:

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

(before any campaigning begins in earnest)

assuming no significant changes before early 2012 -- snicker, snicker!

           
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 124
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   112
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 42
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 41
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 40
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 32
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   54



44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 45%, 5% at 46% or 47%, 4% between 48% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.


But --

I have added a yellow category for states in which President Obama defeats all recognized major GOP nominees (so far Huckabee, Romney, Gingrich, Palin, and where available, Thune, Daniels, Christie, and Pawlenty). This will be a yellow category supplanting those in pale blue or and white.

I am also adding a green category for those states that would otherwise be in white, pale pink, or pale blue -- maybe medium blue, as I have seen only one state in that category -- in which who the nominee is matters. This can be rescinded as one of the potential nominees drops out formally or is rendered irrelevant in primaries. I am also adding a deep green color for states in which  only the 'right' nominee has a chance. So far I will label that as "H" for Huckabee or else Obama, "R" for Romney or else Obama, or other initials as appropriate for  anyone else (Gingrich? Daniels? Thune?) should such cases emerge. A tan color is used for a tie.

             
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 124
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   112
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 49
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 14
yellow                        close, but Obama wins against any major Republican candidate  10
Obama wins against all but Huckabee but ties Huckabee 0
Obama wins against all but  Romney 55
close, but Obama wins against a 'blunder' of a nominee 63
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 6
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%  54  

[pbrower2a]

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http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_NV_0427513.pdf

Big slippage of approval for President Obama. I suppose that some of those who disapprove aren't GOP-friendly, either.

 

Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval); 90% red if >70%
40-42% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
43% to 45% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
46-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)
<50%  Approval greater: 20% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green


Months (All polls are from 2010 or 2011):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

Or here:

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

(before any campaigning begins in earnest)

assuming no significant changes before early 2012 -- snicker, snicker!

           
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 118
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   112
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 42
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 47
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 40
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 32
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   54



44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 45%, 5% at 46% or 47%, 4% between 48% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.


But --

I have added a yellow category for states in which President Obama defeats all recognized major GOP nominees (so far Huckabee, Romney, Gingrich, Palin, and where available, Thune, Daniels, Christie, and Pawlenty). This will be a yellow category supplanting those in pale blue or and white.

I am also adding a green category for those states that would otherwise be in white, pale pink, or pale blue -- maybe medium blue, as I have seen only one state in that category -- in which who the nominee is matters. This can be rescinded as one of the potential nominees drops out formally or is rendered irrelevant in primaries. I am also adding a deep green color for states in which  only the 'right' nominee has a chance. So far I will label that as "H" for Huckabee or else Obama, "R" for Romney or else Obama, or other initials as appropriate for  anyone else (Gingrich? Daniels? Thune?) should such cases emerge. A tan color is used for a tie.

             
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 118
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   112
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 49
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 14
yellow                        close, but Obama wins against any major Republican candidate  10
Obama wins against all but Huckabee but ties Huckabee 0
Obama wins against all but  Romney 61
close, but Obama wins against a 'blunder' of a nominee 63
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 6
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%  54  

[pbrower2a]

SurveyUSA's monthly polls for April are out:

California: 46-50

Kansas: 36-61

Oregon: 47-49

Washington: 49-47

Does SurveyUSA ever poll a different set of states or get different results?

[pbrower2a]

New Hampshire (UNH):

44% Approve
52% Disapprove

http://www.unh.edu/survey-center/news/pdf/gsp2011_spring_presapp042811.pdf

Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval); 90% red if >70%
40-42% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
43% to 45% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
46-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)
<50%  Approval greater: 20% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green


Months (All polls are from 2010 or 2011):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

Or here:

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

(before any campaigning begins in earnest)

assuming no significant changes before early 2012 -- snicker, snicker!

           
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 118
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   112
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 38
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 51
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 40
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 32
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   54



44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 45%, 5% at 46% or 47%, 4% between 48% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.


But --

I have added a yellow category for states in which President Obama defeats all recognized major GOP nominees (so far Huckabee, Romney, Gingrich, Palin, and where available, Thune, Daniels, Christie, and Pawlenty). This will be a yellow category supplanting those in pale blue or and white.

I am also adding a green category for those states that would otherwise be in white, pale pink, or pale blue -- maybe medium blue, as I have seen only one state in that category -- in which who the nominee is matters. This can be rescinded as one of the potential nominees drops out formally or is rendered irrelevant in primaries. I am also adding a deep green color for states in which  only the 'right' nominee has a chance. So far I will label that as "H" for Huckabee or else Obama, "R" for Romney or else Obama, or other initials as appropriate for  anyone else (Gingrich? Daniels? Thune?) should such cases emerge. A tan color is used for a tie.

             
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 118
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   112
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 49
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 14
yellow                        close, but Obama wins against any major Republican candidate  10
Obama wins against all but Huckabee but ties Huckabee 0
Obama wins against all but  Romney 65
close, but Obama wins against a 'blunder' of a nominee 59
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 6
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%  54  

[pbrower2a]

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 49%, +1.

Disapprove 50%, -1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 24%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 38%, -1.

Much above recent showings. We are likely to see some interesting results in statewide polls.

[pbrower2a]

Sunday, May 01, 2011

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 50%, +1.

Disapprove 49%, -1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 26%, +2.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 37%, -1.

...

The good disaster management in the tornado-affected areas maybe ?

"Government’s Disaster Response Wins Praise"

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/05/01/us/01fema.html

Such is a huge difference from the Dubya-era response to Katrina. Presidents can do nothing to stop tornadoes, but they can respond quickly and effectively to disasters through FEMA if they are so disposed.

Tornadoes scare the hell out of people not in the South, so a swift and effective response to tornadoes in Dixie can have effects farther north -- as in Nebraska and Ohio. 

[pbrower2a]

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Not too bad. This is not the Bounce.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[pbrower2a]

The. Rass numbers could be the birth certificate or WHCD.

It could be the swift and effective response to the tornadoes in the South.

[pbrower2a]

I think somewhere in the middle-to-upper 50s... and it will stick.

There will be no effect on economic perceptions, but much else... more people are likely to see President Obama as a stickler for protocol and legal niceties, and that such -- even if inconvenient -- gets better results than slipshod efforts, whether in diplomacy, dealing with natural disasters (tornadoes in Alabama -- and when you start hearing Republican politicians speak well of the President on that, you know that he is doing fine), or organizing a lethal raid on a demonic enemy of everything American. 

There's just no downside to the death of Usama bin Laden.

[pbrower2a]

Arizona, PPP. First poll that bleeds into May, late enough to show effects of the presentation of the Ryan budget but done before the soul of Usama bin Laden got to meet that of Adolf Hitler.

Obama beats everyone but Romney.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_AZ_05031205.pdf
 

Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval); 90% red if >70%
40-42% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
43% to 45% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
46-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)
<50%  Approval greater: 20% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green


Months (All polls are from 2010 or 2011):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

Or here:

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

(before any campaigning begins in earnest)

assuming no significant changes before early 2012 -- snicker, snicker!

           
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 118
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   112
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 49
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 40
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 40
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 32
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   54



44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 45%, 5% at 46% or 47%, 4% between 48% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.


But --

I have added a yellow category for states in which President Obama defeats all recognized major GOP nominees (so far Huckabee, Romney, Gingrich, Palin, and where available, Thune, Daniels, Christie, and Pawlenty). This will be a yellow category supplanting those in pale blue or and white.

I am also adding a green category for those states that would otherwise be in white, pale pink, or pale blue -- maybe medium blue, as I have seen only one state in that category -- in which who the nominee is matters. This can be rescinded as one of the potential nominees drops out formally or is rendered irrelevant in primaries. I am also adding a deep green color for states in which  only the 'right' nominee has a chance. So far I will label that as "H" for Huckabee or else Obama, "R" for Romney or else Obama, or other initials as appropriate for  anyone else (Gingrich? Daniels? Thune?) should such cases emerge. A tan color is used for a tie.

             
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 118
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   112
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 49
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 3
yellow                        close, but Obama wins against any major Republican candidate  10
Obama wins against all but Huckabee but ties Huckabee 6
Obama wins against all but  Romney 72
close, but Obama wins against a 'blunder' of a nominee 59
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 6
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%  54  

[pbrower2a]

CBS/New York Times checks in with their generally less than stellar poll:

Approve: 57%
Disapprove: 37%

Approval is +11% and disapproval is -8% from their last poll.

http://graphics8.nytimes.com/2011/05/05/us/politics/0505poll-data.pdf

Sometimes the flawed polls catch things that 'better' polls miss -- timing can be everything. No statewide polls yet show the results of the demise of OBL; they go only about as far as the presentation of the Ryan budget.   

[pbrower2a]

New Quinnipiac:

Approve: 52%
Disapprove: 40%

Approval is +6% and disapproval is -8% from before the killing.

The poll shows a huge positive shift among men but not much of a change among women.

It does look like the bounce is going to be a lot smaller than I initially thought it would be... still kind of early to say for sure though.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1284.xml?ReleaseID=1596&What=&strArea=;&strTime=0

It may take some time to sink in. It could be that many people already thought that Osama Bin Laden was already dead because he didn't offer any video of himself.

[pbrower2a]

I was one of those predicting just a small and temporary bounce, but those Rasmussen numbers seem quite ridiculous.

Obama's had a big runup in the Ras poll in the week PRIOR to the OBL killing...this runup is already reflected in the numbers.  so Ras is not saying Obama has not improved, it is say Obama's improvement was already taking place in the week prior to the killing.

Epic fail as an explanation. That run-up was more likely the result of the President's swift and effective response to the tornadoes. People in the Midwest hear about spring tornadoes in Dixie in the spring and ask whether they are next. Americans used to take disaster management for granted -- until Hurricane Katrina. Now they don't. Maybe they can again. Something is different now -- or back to normal. Take your choice.

[pbrower2a]

Hawaii, by a poster with which I have no familiarity. 64% approval. Basically approval. Obama approval in Hawaii is likely close to the maximum anyway.
 

Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval); 90% red if >70%
40-42% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
43% to 45% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
46-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)
<50%  Approval greater: 20% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green


Months (All polls are from 2010 or 2011):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

Or here:

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

(before any campaigning begins in earnest)

assuming no significant changes before early 2012 -- snicker, snicker!

           
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 118
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   112
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 49
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 40
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 40
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 32
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   54



44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 45%, 5% at 46% or 47%, 4% between 48% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.


But --

I have added a yellow category for states in which President Obama defeats all recognized major GOP nominees (so far Huckabee, Romney, Gingrich, Palin, and where available, Thune, Daniels, Christie, and Pawlenty). This will be a yellow category supplanting those in pale blue or and white.

I am also adding a green category for those states that would otherwise be in white, pale pink, or pale blue -- maybe medium blue, as I have seen only one state in that category -- in which who the nominee is matters. This can be rescinded as one of the potential nominees drops out formally or is rendered irrelevant in primaries. I am also adding a deep green color for states in which  only the 'right' nominee has a chance. So far I will label that as "H" for Huckabee or else Obama, "R" for Romney or else Obama, or other initials as appropriate for  anyone else (Gingrich? Daniels? Thune?) should such cases emerge. A tan color is used for a tie.

             
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 118
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   112
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 49
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 3
yellow                        close, but Obama wins against any major Republican candidate  10
Obama wins against all but Huckabee but ties Huckabee 6
Obama wins against all but  Romney 72
close, but Obama wins against a 'blunder' of a nominee 59
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 6
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%  54  

[pbrower2a]

Rasmussen, May 7 (Saturday):

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But --

You must be logged in to read this quote.

The President now has the lowest level of "strong disapproval" since July 2009.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

My comment: any collateral benefits from the demise of Usama bin Laden will be to the benefit of Democrats of all kinds.

[pbrower2a]

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 41, -9.  

Disapprove 48%, -1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 26%, u.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 33%, -1.

It looks like a typo in Rasmussen's numbers I think it is really:

Approve 51, +1.  

Disapprove 48%, -1.

Even with that, I'm surprised  the OBL bounce is not much greater.

Maybe the War on Terror is "old, tired news". Maybe millions of people thought that Bin Laden was already dead before 5/1/2001.

Rasmussen does not recognize a bump that other pollsters find.

This is not directly related to the President, but:

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 26% of Likely U.S. Voters continue to favor the budget proposal by Ryan that claims to cut federal spending by $4 trillion over the next decade. But that’s unchanged from a month ago.

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http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/business/federal_budget/april_2011/opposition_to_ryan_budget_plan_grows

Maybe it is the economy. Maybe if general confidence rises, the economy will improve, and that will improve the approval ratings for the President.