The Official Obama Approval Ratings Thread

[pbrower2a]

Obivous typo corrected:

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 50%, +1.

Disapprove 49%, -1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 29%, +1.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 36%, u.

My guess is that Egypt is what drove the numbers down.

[pbrower2a]

NJ, NC polls:

Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval); 90% red if >70%
40-42% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
43% to 45% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
46-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)
<50%  Approval greater: 20% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green
DC, what else could you expect?

Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

Or here:

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

(before any campaigning begins in earnest)

assuming no significant changes before early 2012 -- snicker, snicker!

District of Columbia, assumed to be about a 90% win for Obama,  3                
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 114
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   58
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 68
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 74
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 57
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   18



44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 45%, 5% at 46% or 47%, 4% between 48% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.


But --

I am adding a yellow category for states in which President Obama defeats all recognized major GOP nominees (so far Huckabee, Romney, Gingrich, Palin, and where available, Thune, Daniels, Christie, and Pawlenty). This will be a yellow category supplanting those in pale blue or and white.

I am also adding a green category for those states that would otherwise be in white or pale blue -- maybe medium blue, as I have seen only one state in that category -- in which who the nominee is matters. This can be rescinded as one of the potential nominees drops out formally or is rendered irrelevant in primaries.

District of Columbia, assumed to be about a 90% win for Obama, 3                  
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 114
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   58
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 70
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 10
yellow                        close, but Obama wins against any major Republican candidate  33
close, but Obama wins against a 'blunder' of a nominee 50
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 38
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%  18  

[pbrower2a]

pbrower goes back on ignore once again.

Favoring PPP over others is biased. You know PPP is a liberal leaning polling source right? Enough of the gibberish nonsense.

I accept Quinnipiac, and I accepted Rasmussen when it was giving statewide approval ratings. I also accepted a couple new polls from entities that I know little about. The "S" on Georgia is a question more of my interpretation of a novel presentation of polling data (rate from "1" to "5")

PPP simply dominates in sheer number of polls.  If you have some question about PPP methodology, then explain it.  I have rejected pollsters only when they are associated heavily with partisan entities. An example is Magellan, which polls on behalf of Republican candidates and state Republican parties.

What would I not accept from a pollster on the other side? One that polls on behalf of the Democratic Party or its candidates, unions, the NAACP, MALDEF, LULAC, the League of Conservation Voters, the Sierra Club, or NARAL.  If I wouldn't accept one by the National Association of Manufacturers, the National Rifle Association, or the National Right to Work Association, then I shouldn't accept polls from groups similarly to the left that have a vested interest in legislation.

As for predicting the 2012 Presidential election, I translate approval ratings into a prediction of what happens. Does anyone think that Barack Obama is an inept campaigner? Do you expect one of the most effective get-out-the-vote machines to reappear in the late summer and early autumn of 2012?

So far I have found some surprises. Most remarkably, Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee, most people's first-choice predictions for the Republican nominee do about as well in every state so far polled. Gingrich does worse, and Sarah Palin is doing execrably.   Indeed she is doing especially badly in California, Colorado, and New Mexico. Contrast her speech to that of Barack Obama and ask yourself whose speech is more easily understood by someone whose first language isn't English (irrespective of current proficiency in English)  or through translation. Neither Romney not Huckabee has quite that problem.

PPP has matchups as well as approval ratings.  Such is telling. 

[pbrower2a]

NH (WMUR/University of New Hampshire)

46% Approve
49% Disapprove

(Gov. Lynch)

67% Approve
23% Disapprove

The poll of 520 randomly selected New Hampshire adults was conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center from Jan. 27 through Feb. 6 and has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4.3 percent.

http://www.wmur.com/r/26810384/detail.html

http://www.unh.edu/survey-center/news/granite-state-poll.html

Note: no matchups were shown.

Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval); 90% red if >70%
40-42% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
43% to 45% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
46-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)
<50%  Approval greater: 20% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green
DC, what else could you expect?

Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

Or here:

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

(before any campaigning begins in earnest)

assuming no significant changes before early 2012 -- snicker, snicker!

District of Columbia, assumed to be about a 90% win for Obama,  3                
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 114
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   58
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 68
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 78
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 57
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   18



44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 45%, 5% at 46% or 47%, 4% between 48% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.


But --

I am adding a yellow category for states in which President Obama defeats all recognized major GOP nominees (so far Huckabee, Romney, Gingrich, Palin, and where available, Thune, Daniels, Christie, and Pawlenty). This will be a yellow category supplanting those in pale blue or and white.

I am also adding a green category for those states that would otherwise be in white or pale blue -- maybe medium blue, as I have seen only one state in that category -- in which who the nominee is matters. This can be rescinded as one of the potential nominees drops out formally or is rendered irrelevant in primaries.

District of Columbia, assumed to be about a 90% win for Obama, 3                  
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 114
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   58
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 70
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 14
yellow                        close, but Obama wins against any major Republican candidate  33
close, but Obama wins against a 'blunder' of a nominee 50
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 38
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%  18  

[pbrower2a]

NH (WMUR/University of New Hampshire)

46% Approve
49% Disapprove

(Gov. Lynch)

67% Approve
23% Disapprove

The poll of 520 randomly selected New Hampshire adults was conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center from Jan. 27 through Feb. 6 and has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4.3 percent.

http://www.wmur.com/r/26810384/detail.html

http://www.unh.edu/survey-center/news/granite-state-poll.html

Note: no matchups were shown.

But this new poll does show them. It comes from a Republican pollster (Magellan), and it is close enough in time to require averaging.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.politico.com/pdf/PPM185_nhjournalpoll21111.pdf

The average comes out 48-46.5.

Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval); 90% red if >70%
40-42% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
43% to 45% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
46-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)
<50%  Approval greater: 20% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green
DC, what else could you expect?

Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

Or here:

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

(before any campaigning begins in earnest)

assuming no significant changes before early 2012 -- snicker, snicker!

District of Columbia, assumed to be about a 90% win for Obama,  3                
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 114
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   58
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 72
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 74
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 57
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   18



44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 45%, 5% at 46% or 47%, 4% between 48% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.


But --

I am adding a yellow category for states in which President Obama defeats all recognized major GOP nominees (so far Huckabee, Romney, Gingrich, Palin, and where available, Thune, Daniels, Christie, and Pawlenty). This will be a yellow category supplanting those in pale blue or and white.

I am also adding a green category for those states that would otherwise be in white or pale blue -- maybe medium blue, as I have seen only one state in that category -- in which who the nominee is matters. This can be rescinded as one of the potential nominees drops out formally or is rendered irrelevant in primaries.

District of Columbia, assumed to be about a 90% win for Obama, 3                  
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 114
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   58
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 70
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 14
yellow                        close, but Obama wins against any major Republican candidate  33
close, but Obama wins against a 'blunder' of a nominee 50
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 38
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%  18  

[pbrower2a]

PPP/DailyKos:

47% Approve
48% Disapprove

http://www.dailykos.com/weeklypolling/2011/2/11

Anyone else notice that PPP's polling for Daily Kos is much less friendly to Obama than their state-by-state polling?

PPP has yet to poll the Deep South. It may have polled about everything from New York State to Florida along the Atlantic Coast, the Rust Belt, and California.  So far --'

1. President Obama has recent statewide approval ratings much lower than the levels that he got elected by in the area between roughly Minneapolis and Philadelphia. Those approval ratings are accompanied by evidence that he would still win, but not with the monster numbers that he showed in 2008.

2. So far, all PPP matchups suggest (although some are in the margin of error) that president Obama would win everything that he won in 2008 except perhaps Indiana (which prohibits automated polling and makes it very expensive).  There is no evidence that suggests that President Obama would lose any state that he won by at least 8%.

3. The flip side is that PPP so far shows no evidence that President Obama could defeat either Mitt Romney pr Mike Huckabee anywhere that he failed to win in 2008 -- not even Missouri, Montana, Georgia, or Arizona.

4. President Obama so far has an advantage in a 50-50 split of  the popular vote in that although he remains seen favorably by comparatively small margins in slightly more than half the states he is still wildly unpopular in most of the rest. Such seems to reflect the conditions of November 2008.

Sure, PPP will release a poll on Tennessee soon, and that one may show whether the President is making gains in the non-coastal South. If I should see an approval rating for him above 45%, then I may see a portent of a 400-EV landslide against any possible Republican. Until then, the Democrats continue to face a reality that President Obama is the wrong sort of Democrat to appeal to white Southerners who might have voted for Bill Clinton.

6. This is before we have any real idea of who will be the Republican nominee for president. All that we can do is to establish who won;t be.

[pbrower2a]

Tennessee, PPP, as promised. The President would be close if he contested it, but he probably wouldn't win it. Barack Obama is the wrong sort of campaigner to win this state. My gut feeling suggests that President Obama would get no more than 46% of the vote there, but my system makes sense in most cases. 

I am averaging the PPP poll with a recent poll by Nashville's Vanderbilt University.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_TN_0217.pdf

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Pennsylvania (Quinnipiac):

51% Approve
44% Disapprove

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1327.xml?ReleaseID=1559

Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval); 90% red if >70%
40-42% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
43% to 45% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
46-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)
<50%  Approval greater: 20% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green
DC, what else could you expect?

Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

Or here:

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

(before any campaigning begins in earnest)

assuming no significant changes before early 2012 -- snicker, snicker!

District of Columbia, assumed to be about a 90% win for Obama,  3                
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 114
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   98
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 72
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 54
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 68
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   18



44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 45%, 5% at 46% or 47%, 4% between 48% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.


But --

I am adding a yellow category for states in which President Obama defeats all recognized major GOP nominees (so far Huckabee, Romney, Gingrich, Palin, and where available, Thune, Daniels, Christie, and Pawlenty). This will be a yellow category supplanting those in pale blue or and white.

I am also adding a green category for those states that would otherwise be in white or pale blue -- maybe medium blue, as I have seen only one state in that category -- in which who the nominee is matters. This can be rescinded as one of the potential nominees drops out formally or is rendered irrelevant in primaries.

District of Columbia, assumed to be about a 90% win for Obama, 3                  
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 114
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   98
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 70
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 14
yellow                        close, but Obama wins against any major Republican candidate  13
close, but Obama wins against a 'blunder' of a nominee 50
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 38
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%  18  






(note: I am averaging the results for Sarah Palin between Vanderbilt and PPP. PPP has her tied with Obama).

[pbrower2a]

Rasmussen Obama (National)

Approve 44%, -1.

Disapprove 54%, +1.

"Strongly Approve" is at 23%, -3.  "Strongly Disapprove" is at 41%, +1.

This could normal wobble, a bad sample, or real movement.  We should wait until midweek.

Could it be Wisconsin?  Also, he just went way up to 51/42 in Gallup yesterday, which is interesting.

Watch statewide polling.  If you should see polling in North Carolina or Ohio in the low 40s, then you might see a movement that suggests big trouble for the President.

[pbrower2a]

University of Texas, Texas; Q in New York. Texas polling is erratic in the extreme, except that President Obama is unlikely to win the state.

Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval); 90% red if >70%
40-42% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
43% to 45% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
46-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)
<50%  Approval greater: 20% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green
DC, what else could you expect?

Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

Or here:

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

(before any campaigning begins in earnest)

assuming no significant changes before early 2012 -- snicker, snicker!

District of Columbia, assumed to be about a 90% win for Obama,  3                
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 114
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   98
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 72
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 54
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 68
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   54



44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 45%, 5% at 46% or 47%, 4% between 48% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.


But --

I am adding a yellow category for states in which President Obama defeats all recognized major GOP nominees (so far Huckabee, Romney, Gingrich, Palin, and where available, Thune, Daniels, Christie, and Pawlenty). This will be a yellow category supplanting those in pale blue or and white.

I am also adding a green category for those states that would otherwise be in white or pale blue -- maybe medium blue, as I have seen only one state in that category -- in which who the nominee is matters. This can be rescinded as one of the potential nominees drops out formally or is rendered irrelevant in primaries.

District of Columbia, assumed to be about a 90% win for Obama, 3                  
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 114
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   98
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 70
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 14
yellow                        close, but Obama wins against any major Republican candidate  13
close, but Obama wins against a 'blunder' of a nominee 50
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 0
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%  54  

[pbrower2a]

This may be evidence of some slipping in the polls.

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President
Barack Obama’s job performance?
Approve .......................................................... 47%
Disapprove...................................................... 48%
Not sure .......................................................... 4%

Q6 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Newt Gingrich, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama................................................ 48%
Newt Gingrich ................................................. 44%
Undecided....................................................... 8%

Q7 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mike
Huckabee, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama................................................ 46%
Mike Huckabee ............................................... 47%
Undecided....................................................... 7%

Q8 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican
Sarah Palin, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama................................................ 51%
Sarah Palin ..................................................... 41%
Undecided....................................................... 8%

Q9 If the candidates for President next year were
Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt
Romney, who would you vote for?
Barack Obama................................................ 47%
Mitt Romney.................................................... 44%
Undecided....................................................... 9%


Note: because Obama would  lose a match with Huckabee in North Carolina, I must show him losing the state. New rule, but it isn't to the advantage of the President, so it is statistically conservative:

Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval); 90% red if >70%
40-42% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
43% to 45% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
46-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)
<50%  Approval greater: 20% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green
DC, what else could you expect?

Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

Or here:

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

(before any campaigning begins in earnest)

assuming no significant changes before early 2012 -- snicker, snicker!

District of Columbia, assumed to be about a 90% win for Obama,  3                
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 114
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   98
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 57
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 54
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 68
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 18
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   54



44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 45%, 5% at 46% or 47%, 4% between 48% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.


But --

I am adding a yellow category for states in which President Obama defeats all recognized major GOP nominees (so far Huckabee, Romney, Gingrich, Palin, and where available, Thune, Daniels, Christie, and Pawlenty). This will be a yellow category supplanting those in pale blue or and white.

I am also adding a green category for those states that would otherwise be in white or pale blue -- maybe medium blue, as I have seen only one state in that category -- in which who the nominee is matters. This can be rescinded as one of the potential nominees drops out formally or is rendered irrelevant in primaries.

A new dark green category shows that the President would win against one of Huckabee and Romney, but not both. 

District of Columbia, assumed to be about a 90% win for Obama, 3                  
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 114
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   98
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 70
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 14
yellow                        close, but Obama wins against any major Republican candidate  13
close, but Obama wins against a 'blunder' of a nominee 65
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 0
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%  54  

[pbrower2a]

Gallup has Obama at 47% (+1) approve to 45% (u) dissaprove.

Obama's numbers are lower than during the Tuscon bounce, but are still better than before the bounce.

Maybe voters dislike volatility (Libya, Wisconsin, oil prices).

Anything has to be better than Qaddafi in Libya, right?

[pbrower2a]

Des Moines Register, Selzer:

http://www.desmoinesregister.com/article/20110225/NEWS09/102250348/Obama-s-Iowa-rating-ticks-upward-do-2012-political-challenges

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Selzer does few polls, but does them well.

Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval); 90% red if >70%
40-42% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
43% to 45% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
46-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)
<50%  Approval greater: 20% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green
DC, what else could you expect?

Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

Or here:

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

(before any campaigning begins in earnest)

assuming no significant changes before early 2012 -- snicker, snicker!

District of Columbia, assumed to be about a 90% win for Obama,  3                
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 114
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   92
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 78
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 54
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 30
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   54



44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 45%, 5% at 46% or 47%, 4% between 48% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.


But --

I am adding a yellow category for states in which President Obama defeats all recognized major GOP nominees (so far Huckabee, Romney, Gingrich, Palin, and where available, Thune, Daniels, Christie, and Pawlenty). This will be a yellow category supplanting those in pale blue or and white.

I am also adding a green category for those states that would otherwise be in white or pale blue -- maybe medium blue, as I have seen only one state in that category -- in which who the nominee is matters. This can be rescinded as one of the potential nominees drops out formally or is rendered irrelevant in primaries.

District of Columbia, assumed to be about a 90% win for Obama, 3                  
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 114
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   92
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 76
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 14
yellow                        close, but Obama wins against any major Republican candidate  13
close, but Obama wins against a 'blunder' of a nominee 50
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 0
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%  54  

[pbrower2a]

North Carolina (Civitas Institute):

50% Approve
45% Disapprove

In January the President’s job performance rating stood at 45 percent approve – 49 percent disapprove. 

Democratic voters remain overall favorable (73 percent approve – 24 percent approve) while just 15 percent of Republican voters approve of the job he is doing.  Unaffiliated voters approve of Obama’s job performance by a 55 percent – 33 percent margin.

...

This poll of 600 registered general election voters in North Carolina was conducted February 10, 12-13 by National Research, Inc. of Holmdel, NJ.  All respondents were part of a fully representative sample of registered voters in North Carolina.  For purposes of this study, voters interviewed had to have voted in two of the past four general elections or were newly registered to vote since 2008.

The confidence interval associated with a sample of this size is such that: 95 percent of the time, results from 600 interviews (registered voters) will be within +-4% of the “True Values.” True Values refer to the results obtained if it were possible to interview every person in North Carolina who had voted in two of the past four general elections or were newly registered to vote since 2008.

http://www.nccivitas.org/wp-content/uploads/2011/02/Obama-Perdue-Approval-February-11-PR-CTs.pdf

Not a 'likely voters' screen, but you can't really get a reliable screen this early. North Carolina draws huge attention these days.

Michigan (EPIC-MRA):

44% Excellent/Good
55% Fair/Poor

50% Favorable
43% Unfavorable

http://www.wilx.com/news/headlines/116983258.html

I can't use the EGFP poll of Michigan. "Fair" is too ambiguous to be useful. I'm surprised that Michigan hasn't been polled more often in view of its electoral size, a new Republican Governor, and a Senator up for re-election in 2012 with an economy in the sewer for the last 35 years.

Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval); 90% red if >70%
40-42% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
43% to 45% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
46-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)
<50%  Approval greater: 20% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green
DC, what else could you expect?

Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

Or here:

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

(before any campaigning begins in earnest)

assuming no significant changes before early 2012 -- snicker, snicker!

District of Columbia, assumed to be about a 90% win for Obama,  3                
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 114
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   107
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 63
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 54
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 30
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   54



44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 45%, 5% at 46% or 47%, 4% between 48% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.


But --

I am adding a yellow category for states in which President Obama defeats all recognized major GOP nominees (so far Huckabee, Romney, Gingrich, Palin, and where available, Thune, Daniels, Christie, and Pawlenty). This will be a yellow category supplanting those in pale blue or and white.

I am also adding a green category for those states that would otherwise be in white or pale blue -- maybe medium blue, as I have seen only one state in that category -- in which who the nominee is matters. This can be rescinded as one of the potential nominees drops out formally or is rendered irrelevant in primaries.

District of Columbia, assumed to be about a 90% win for Obama, 3                  
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 114
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   107
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 63
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 14
yellow                        close, but Obama wins against any major Republican candidate  13
close, but Obama wins against a 'blunder' of a nominee 50
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 0
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%  54  

[pbrower2a]

North Carolina's looking kind of odd on your map pbrower.

I agree that it looks unusual. The state has been in the 50% approval area at the top and in the high 40's. Civitas could be high.

The last poll for Virginia was in December, and a new poll would be interesting.

[pbrower2a]

Rhode Island, and you probably need a magnifying glass to see it.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_RI_0228.pdf

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Sarah Palin is so unpopular in Rhode Island that the state would probably wish that it were still a colony of Queen Elizabeth II if Caribou Barbie won the Presidency.

Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval); 90% red if >70%
40-42% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
43% to 45% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
46-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)
<50%  Approval greater: 20% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green
DC, what else could you expect?

Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

Or here:

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

(before any campaigning begins in earnest)

assuming no significant changes before early 2012 -- snicker, snicker!

District of Columbia, assumed to be about a 90% win for Obama,  3                
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 118
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   107
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 63
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 54
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 30
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   54



44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 45%, 5% at 46% or 47%, 4% between 48% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.


But --

I am adding a yellow category for states in which President Obama defeats all recognized major GOP nominees (so far Huckabee, Romney, Gingrich, Palin, and where available, Thune, Daniels, Christie, and Pawlenty). This will be a yellow category supplanting those in pale blue or and white.

I am also adding a green category for those states that would otherwise be in white or pale blue -- maybe medium blue, as I have seen only one state in that category -- in which who the nominee is matters. This can be rescinded as one of the potential nominees drops out formally or is rendered irrelevant in primaries.

District of Columbia, assumed to be about a 90% win for Obama, 3                  
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 118
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   107
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 63
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 14
yellow                        close, but Obama wins against any major Republican candidate  13
close, but Obama wins against a 'blunder' of a nominee 50
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 0
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%  54  

[pbrower2a]

PPP, Virginia. No magnifying glass necessary here.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_VA_03021118.pdf

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval); 90% red if >70%
40-42% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
43% to 45% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
46-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)
<50%  Approval greater: 20% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green
DC, what else could you expect?

Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

Or here:

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

(before any campaigning begins in earnest)

assuming no significant changes before early 2012 -- snicker, snicker!

District of Columbia, assumed to be about a 90% win for Obama,  3                
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 118
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   107
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 75
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 41
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 30
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   54



44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 45%, 5% at 46% or 47%, 4% between 48% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.


But --

I am adding a yellow category for states in which President Obama defeats all recognized major GOP nominees (so far Huckabee, Romney, Gingrich, Palin, and where available, Thune, Daniels, Christie, and Pawlenty). This will be a yellow category supplanting those in pale blue or and white.

I am also adding a green category for those states that would otherwise be in white or pale blue -- maybe medium blue, as I have seen only one state in that category -- in which who the nominee is matters. This can be rescinded as one of the potential nominees drops out formally or is rendered irrelevant in primaries.

District of Columbia, assumed to be about a 90% win for Obama, 3                  
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 118
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   107
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 63
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 14
yellow                        close, but Obama wins against any major Republican candidate  13
close, but Obama wins against a 'blunder' of a nominee 50
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 0
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%  54  

[pbrower2a]

SurveyUSA's end-of-February polls are out:

California: 53-44

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollTrack.aspx?g=c717d146-99e7-4de8-8217-9fb792fc2fb8

Kansas: 38-59

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollTrack.aspx?g=c9cb9d95-0451-467c-8613-efb0bf5d4a7e

Oregon: 42-51

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollTrack.aspx?g=87dabdb7-5435-402e-891e-11b3bf475127

Washington: 46-48

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollTrack.aspx?g=c34262fe-7152-4e56-be8d-dd7e32b0f6dd

The only two with any credibility are those for California (changes nothing if accepted) and Kansas (probably right). The other two are hoots.

[pbrower2a]

Tennessee (Middle Tennessee State University):

39% Approve
52% Disapprove

Poll interviews were conducted by telephone Feb. 14 – 26, 2011 by students in the College of Mass Communication at Middle Tennessee State University. Students interviewed 589 people age 18 or older chosen at random from the state population. The poll has an estimated error margin of ± 4 percentage points at the 95 percent level of confidence. Theoretically, this means that a sample of this size should produce a statistical portrait of the population within 4 percentage points 95 out of 100 times. Other factors, such as question wording, also affect the outcome of a survey. Error margins are greater for sample subgroups.

http://www.mtsusurveygroup.org/wp-content/uploads/2011/03/Spring2011report1.pdf

I can't read the link. There's no indication of any screen of voters, so I can't use it until I see what sort of voters are identified.

[pbrower2a]

PPP, Wisconsin:

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Morning Call/Muhlenberg College, Pennsylvania:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval); 90% red if >70%
40-42% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
43% to 45% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
46-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)
<50%  Approval greater: 20% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green
DC, what else could you expect?

Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

Or here:

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

(before any campaigning begins in earnest)

assuming no significant changes before early 2012 -- snicker, snicker!

District of Columbia, assumed to be about a 90% win for Obama,  3                
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 118
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   97
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 85
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 41
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 30
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   54



44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 45%, 5% at 46% or 47%, 4% between 48% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.


But --

I am adding a yellow category for states in which President Obama defeats all recognized major GOP nominees (so far Huckabee, Romney, Gingrich, Palin, and where available, Thune, Daniels, Christie, and Pawlenty). This will be a yellow category supplanting those in pale blue or and white.

I am also adding a green category for those states that would otherwise be in white or pale blue -- maybe medium blue, as I have seen only one state in that category -- in which who the nominee is matters. This can be rescinded as one of the potential nominees drops out formally or is rendered irrelevant in primaries.

District of Columbia, assumed to be about a 90% win for Obama, 3                  
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 118
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   97
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 83
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 14
yellow                        close, but Obama wins against any major Republican candidate  13
close, but Obama wins against a 'blunder' of a nominee 50
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 0
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%  54  



[/quote]

[pbrower2a]

Wisconsin (Rasmussen):

55% Approve, well actually "favorable" but it doesn't make sense - Rasmussen has never polled Obama's favorables in a state so far, only approvals - so I think they made a typo.

(Gov. Walker)

43% Approve
57% Disapprove

73% of Wisconsin Republicans approve of the job Walker is doing. 89% of the state's Democrats and 56% of voters not affiliated with either of the major parties disapprove.

The survey of 800 Likely Voters in Wisconsin was conducted on March 2, 2011 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/general_state_surveys/wisconsin/wisconsin_governor_walker_43_approval_rating

I'm going to accept that 'favorably' is a typo because Rasmussen then uses this language:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Rasmussen may not be perfect, but he doesn't ordinarily muddle language.

The PPP and Rasmussen polls are about a week apart, and the Rasmussen poll is the first March poll. I am chary of averaging polls between months. I happen to like Rasmussen because of fewer undecided voters, and approval ratings in a state with such fast-changing political realities as Wisconsin are fluid in the extreme. Wisconsin is unique these days.

Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval); 90% red if >70%
40-42% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
43% to 45% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
46-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)
<50%  Approval greater: 20% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green
DC, what else could you expect?

Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

Or here:

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

(before any campaigning begins in earnest)

assuming no significant changes before early 2012 -- snicker, snicker!

District of Columbia, assumed to be about a 90% win for Obama,  3                
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 128
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   87
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 85
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 41
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 30
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   54



44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 45%, 5% at 46% or 47%, 4% between 48% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.


But --

I am adding a yellow category for states in which President Obama defeats all recognized major GOP nominees (so far Huckabee, Romney, Gingrich, Palin, and where available, Thune, Daniels, Christie, and Pawlenty). This will be a yellow category supplanting those in pale blue or and white.

I am also adding a green category for those states that would otherwise be in white or pale blue -- maybe medium blue, as I have seen only one state in that category -- in which who the nominee is matters. This can be rescinded as one of the potential nominees drops out formally or is rendered irrelevant in primaries.

District of Columbia, assumed to be about a 90% win for Obama, 3                  
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 128
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   87
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 83
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 14
yellow                        close, but Obama wins against any major Republican candidate  13
close, but Obama wins against a 'blunder' of a nominee 50
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 0
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%  54  

[pbrower2a]

Wow, Rassmussen isn't trying to spin for Walker? Color me a tad surprised.

Scott Rasmussen must know a lost cause when he sees it, and not only when someone has bad polling numbers.

Scott Walker can thank his lucky stars that the prank phone call wasn't an FBI sting, because if it were, then he would be in deep trouble.   You can bet that every move that he makes is now under the scrutiny of the Department of Justice for either violations of civil rights or various forms of corruption. This is without precedent in American history; consequences are hard to predict.  It's hard to predict how a Governor behaves when he has the federal attention typical of an Imperial Wizard, a Mafia capo, or the head of an outlaw biker gang.

Governor Walker's poll numbers are the least of his problems now. If you think that the protests were large on chilly days in Wisconsin, then just think of what they can be like in the summer, when teachers have their summer breaks.

WI (Wisconsin Policy Research Institute):

53% Approve
42% Disapprove

(Scott Walker)

43% Approve
53% Disapprove

http://big.assets.huffingtonpost.com/WPRI-Toplines-030311.pdf

...nothing to change my map, but plenty to give me cause for confidence on the Rasmussen poll.

 

[pbrower2a]

The Wisconsin fiasco seems to be helping Democrats in the state.  I wonder if this effect will help Obama and the Democrats across the entire region.  I would say that completely depends on whether or not it is resurrected as an issue in the 2012 campaign.... if not it will be completely out of peoples' minds by then. 

You can trust that Big Labor will keep bringing it up. The only state that Wisconsin borders that has voted for a Republican nominee for President since 1992 is Iowa (barely in 2004).

How large is the 'region'? Indiana is separated from Wisconsin only by Greater Chicago. No Republican can win without it. Missouri was a bare McCain state in 2008. Get Big Labor active, and it is a possible Obama pickup. Ohio? Probably the definitive bellwether state. No way do the Republicans win without it. 

Scott Walker has turned upon the occupational group that only fools would turn upon: teachers. Teachers are everywhere. They are smart, they organize easily, and they are generally recognized as working people. They are generally able to get their point across to most people (if they couldn't, then they would be doing something else), and they are often in civic groups and church groups as leaders. They form one of the largest occupational groups in America. Going after teachers isn't quite as unwise as would have been going after farmers a century ago, but it is as close as one now gets.   

Wisconsin rarely makes national news unless it involves the Green Bay Packers, Jeffrey Dahmer (that goes back some time), or a natural disaster. Governor Walker put the state front and center in American news in the worst possible way for the Republican Party.     

[pbrower2a]

PPP will have polls on Maine (we shall see how the Governor does, whether Senator Olympia Snowe is vulnerable to tea-bag types, and whether the Democrats could have someone capable of winning against her or a Tea-bagger. How would she do as an Independent?

Olympia Snowe could be in 2012 what Blanche Lincoln was in 2010: someone weak with the base and vulnerable in the general election.

I wouldn't make much of the difference between the two Congressional districts of Maine, as President Obama would have to lose about 55-45 nationwide for there to be a difference in how the districts vote.

Missouri is the other, and it of course was the state closest to being an Obama win in 2008 that wasn't. It has an apparently-vulnerable Democratic Senator.  We may also get some taste of the political geography; as Virginia seems to be leaving the South, is Missouri joining it?  

[pbrower2a]

I don't know what to make of this:

http://www.nj.com/news/index.ssf/2011/03/gov_christies_poll_numbers_dro.html

(Reuters-Eagleton)

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I don't use favorability polls.

[pbrower2a]

North Carolina (High Point University):

Do you approve or disapprove of the way that Barack Obama is handling his job as president?

Approve 47%
Disapprove 46%

http://acme.highpoint.edu/~mkifer/src/7memo2.pdf

Today we have Connecticut (Quinnipiac):

49% Approve
47% Disapprove

From March 1 - 7, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,693 registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.4 percentage points. Live interviewers call landlines and cell phones.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1296.xml?ReleaseID=1565

Key:


<40% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Orange (50% if 60%-69% or higher disapproval); 90% red if >70%
40-42% with Disapproval Higher: 50% Yellow  
43% to 45% with Disapproval Higher: 40% Yellow  
46-49% with Disapproval Higher: 30% Yellow  
<50% with Approval Equal: 10% Yellow (really white)
<50%  Approval greater: 20% Green
50-55%: 40% Green
56-59%: 60% Green
60%+: 80% Green
DC, what else could you expect?

Months (All polls are from 2010):

A -  January     G -  July
B -  February   H -  August
C -  March        I -  September
D -  April          J  -  October
E -  May           K -  November
F -   June         L -   December

 

S - suspect poll (examples for such a qualification: strange crosstabs, likely inversion of the report (for inversions, only for polls above 55% or below 45%...  let's say Vermont 35% approval or Oklahoma 65% approval), or more than 10% undecided. Anyone who suggests that a poll is suspect must explain why it is suspect.

Partisan polls and polls for special interests (trade associations, labor unions, ethnic associations) are excluded.

Z- no recent poll

Or here:

MY CURRENT PREDICTION OF THE 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

(before any campaigning begins in earnest)

assuming no significant changes before early 2012 -- snicker, snicker!

District of Columbia, assumed to be about a 90% win for Obama,  3                
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 128
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   79
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 100
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 41
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 30
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%   54



44% approval is roughly the break-even  point (50/50) for an incumbent's win.  I add 6% for approval between 40% and 45%, 5% at 46% or 47%, 4% between 48% and 50%, 3% for 51%, 2% for 52% or 53%, 1% for 54% and nothing above 55% or below 40% for an estimate of the vote.

This model applies only to incumbents, who have plenty of advantages but not enough to rescue an unqualified failure.


But --

I am adding a yellow category for states in which President Obama defeats all recognized major GOP nominees (so far Huckabee, Romney, Gingrich, Palin, and where available, Thune, Daniels, Christie, and Pawlenty). This will be a yellow category supplanting those in pale blue or and white.

I am also adding a green category for those states that would otherwise be in white or pale blue -- maybe medium blue, as I have seen only one state in that category -- in which who the nominee is matters. This can be rescinded as one of the potential nominees drops out formally or is rendered irrelevant in primaries.

District of Columbia, assumed to be about a 90% win for Obama, 3                  
deep red                  Obama 10% margin or greater 128
medium red              Obama, 5-9.9% margin   79
pale red                   Obama, margin under 5% 98
white                        too close to call (margin 1% or less) 14
yellow                        close, but Obama wins against any major Republican candidate  13
close, but Obama wins against a 'blunder' of a nominee 50
pale blue                  Republican  under 5% 0
medium blue             Republican  5-9.9% margin 3
deep blue                 Republican over 10%  54