I don't see Biden winning it or even improving on his 2020 margin but these polls are suggesting it could vote closer to the national average this time if nothing else.
That's roughly 2% better for Joe Biden than in 2024, which is not significant in itself.
Texas' demographics are changing, with Texas becoming more like the USA as a whole. Texas used to straddle 400 electoral votes for a Democrat; it was more like 350 in 2020. Add to this, the Texas GOP is becoming increasingly erratic in administrative conduct.
