Suburban realignment

[pbrower2a]

Suburbanites are typically well-educated and proud of it, especially if minorities. Any political party that delves into anti-intellectualism to the extent of ridiculing the college degrees necessary for certain work goes beyond the 'safe' level of debunking the wayward professors and creative people.

Offend any sensibility, and one loses that constituency. It's telling that one of the shared characteristics of Eisenhower and Obama voters was having an above-average education by the standards of the time. To be sure the conduct and temperament of both were much the same, but they won much the same states. 

[pbrower2a]

Barring death or debility, those who voted for Trump in 2016 or 2020 would vote for him again in a general election in 2024. He would lose to new voters about 60-40 as he did in 2020, and that means an erosion in his percentage of the vote. That's before I even look at the effects of the Capitol Putsch which I best described as incalculable until 2024,

As Suburbia ages or becomes legitimately urban it takes on the voting characteristics of the nearby Big City. Trump, to be sure, is the definitive City Slicker, but what makes city slickers obnoxious in rural areas wears on people in urban and suburban America too.