pbrower2a
Atlas Star
Posts: 26,876
|
 |
« on: October 14, 2021, 04:43:47 PM » |
|
It suggests
(1) that Florida will be close in 2024 even at a supposed low point for polling for Biden -- even against a Favorite Son.
Biden lost Florida in 2020, and no Republican can win the Presidency without Florida. Thus things will be about as good for President Biden in 2024 as in 2020.
(2) recent approval and disapproval numbers for President Biden do not translate into bad voting results for him.
(3) Biden favorability is positive. Although that is not identical with approval it is usually close.
...Trump won Florida in 2020 largely playing up the anti-Castro rhetoric, claiming that Biden would be soft on Communism in Cuba. That's one way to appeal to Cuban-Americans who have hatred of the Commie regime in Cuba as the focus of their politics. Biden will have his record. I see two possibilities, and they both bode well for Biden.
1. The new leader of Cuba could be another Gorbachev who makes dealings easy and attractive, handing President Biden a successful "Cuba policy" . The only Cuban-Americans dissatisfied with that will be the ones who seek to return to Cuba to lord it over the Cuban people as their ancestors did before 1959. Not many Americans would go along with that.
2. The new leader of Cuba finds himself under fire as political revolution sweeps the country. Instead of being the new Gorbachev, Canel-Diaz becomes the Cuban equivalent of Nicolae Ceausescu. In such a case, President Biden has an easy gain in his political reality.
3. Things keep getting worse in Cuba, and Biden keeps quiet. His policy is known, and it is much the same as with other Presidents since Kennedy: give no breaks and cut no deals. What does a Republican have to offer: invade Cuba? That's too crazy.
Trump could play the Cuba card among Cuban-Americans in Florida and win the state. Biden has plenty of ways to win involving Cuba. He will have a policy in place, and it will almost certainly be right.
|
