Three and a half years away. This is as good as we can expect as an accurate prediction at this point.
If this is as things are in January 2024, then Biden wins handily.
In cause you are thinking "What about the foreign policy of George H W Bush? Bill Clinton cleverly said that he would continue it. It's hard to see any Republican saying much the same about Joe Biden and COVID-19.
My guess: The "shy Trump effect" is true and has increased dramatically since January 6th, with the more paranoid among conservatives worried that this "poll" is just an excuse to get people labeled seditious traitors and others just skeptical of anyone they don't know talking to them about politics. The Biden number is accurate and reasonable for an incumbent this far out, but the vast majority of "undecideds" are standard conservatives. Combine that with lack of name recognition and it gives you the very low numbers for people like Haley.
It's an IPSOS POLL
Haw, haw, haw!
The insurrection is a mockery of both the rule of law and of democratic norms. A Republican unready to denounce the insurrection will be a brittle target for the Democratic nominee. The negative ads practically write themselves.
