March 2021-- Which is Most Likely?

[pbrower2a]

If he is still alive and not in prison or having fled to another country, he still has a lock on the GOP nomination if he runs. The personality cult is intact, but even without him the contest within the GOP for President would be to find Trump's "finest student". Bob Dole without the character and rationality?

Either way, the GOP loses the 2024 election for President. Demographics disfavor the GOP as its constituency shrinks as a share of the electorate by about 1.5% each year for the next ten years. 

[pbrower2a]

He would almost certainly win the nomination if it were today, but three years is an eternity for another candidate to get attention, and I think it's more likely than not that the 2024 nominee is not Trump.

That's mostly an actuarial question. Donald Trump is a vengeful man, and if he could take it out on people who thought him unfit to be President despite being the Most Wonderful Person Who Ever Lived, his character suggests that he would.

Three years is an eternity with someone at his age with such previously-existing conditions as obesity, bad eating habits, physical inactivity, and  an inflexible mind.