Do you consider Minnesota a swing state?

[pbrower2a]

Not really. Minnesota is now the sort of state that will go for an R nominee only in an R blowout. It was on the fringe of competitiveness in 2020. In 2016 Trump promised big infrastructure projects to the delight of iron miners in northern Minnesota who thought they heard a promise of more jobs and overtime mining iron ore for big infrastructure projects, especially the construction of new highways or reconstruction of old ones (much iron goes into reinforcing bars in concrete highways). It turns out that Trump's idea was simply to add tolls to free highways whose only added iron would be in toll gantries on toll roads operated by monopolistic profiteers.

Trump made a promise that Minnesota voters interpreted one way but meant something else, really a raw deal. That's one way to win one election and lose the next in a state.

Minnesota swings only in going much more R+ in Republican losses (it seems rather inelastic, and it was not a particularly strong Obama win in 2008 or 2012 compared to other states) and much more D+ in Republican wins.