Biden approval ratings thread, 1.0

[pbrower2a]

I never thought of President Biden as the sort to slam the hammer, but he did so on Thursday. He kept the skewering of the Putsch as non-partisan as possible... but it is obvious that Democrats have no cause for fear of consequences.

Polling this weekend might be interesting. 

ZOGBY and IPSOS HAVE BIDEN AT 50/48 AS I have always said it's about turnout in 2018 it was 46/43 M vote turnout and it was same day voting and in 2020 it was VBM 80/75 M turnout the polls underestimate  Minority turnout

It's freaking 10 mnths before the election and to secure WI/PA and MI it won't take much so I don't know why Vaccinated Bear keep polling these 40 percent Approvals it's freaking 10 mnths before the Election and 10 pts to 50 can be increased by Minority turnout to solidify the blue Wall which Trump didn't have he was a criminal

Biden's Approval Rating is more like 40-56%, and it's like 33-60% in swing states according to Civiqs.  His approval has been ticking down since the VA/NJ races, while disapproval has continued to elevate towards a Rasmussen like result.  46-49% of voters strongly disapprove of Biden.  The crazy swing that's been popping up in all the polls is among young voters (27-57%), as well as the 25% of Democrats the either Disapprove or Don't have an Opinion.  Georgia is most likely going to the Republicans, and I'm struggling with whether to lock-in my call right now.  42-46% among 18,000 Hispanics in the Civiq Poll continues the trend of lowering support for Biden (Biden has lost 6% of his Hispanic support since November).  It's the younger Hispanics that really hate Biden across the sunbelt.   https://civiqs.com/results/approve_president_biden?uncertainty=true&annotations=true&zoomIn=true&map=true   

Zogby is at 45-51 at the time of your post, and both that pollster and Zogby are extreme outliers.  The pollsters you usually mention are plugging in some crazy numbers that would suggest a Democrat tsunami in 2022, and Biden's approval is still ticking down among even the most biased data samples (i.e. D+5-13).  Yet Morning Consult and Change Research still have Biden under-water 40-52%, and it's really 55/56% Disapprove when you apply their bias.  That makes Rasmussen, Suffolk and Trafalgar look like real solid performers going into the 2022 election season.       

Hysterical Note: The Zogby Poll indicates that a majority of voters think Biden and the Democrats are taking credit for Trump's accomplishments. lol. 
 
Moreover, the polls didn't underestimate minority turnout in 2020.  The difference between data in the Zogby/Ipsos polls as opposed to other pollsters has nothing to do with minorities.  2020 had nothing to do with strong minority turnout.  Joe Biden is President because he won a real good portion of suburban, small town and rural white vote in swing districts.  This obsession you and other Democrats have with race has totally blinded you from the obvious.  If Republicans get 59-62% of white voters as some polls are indicating, the game is over for Democrats. 

BTW... You know the pollsters have done a better job inputting turnout numbers into their data sets (motivation/enthusiasm of voters).   The Strongly Disapprove data is also pretty good for turnout predictions, because hating someone is great motivation for showing up to the polls, and those numbers will last for the next 10 months.       

Everything I've seen indicates that Democrats are going to be pretty well-F'ed by the time the 2022 elections role around.   

We have two different and contradictory narratives. It is hard to determine which one is right.

[pbrower2a]

In his study from 2010, Nate Silver addressed the assumption that incumbents need to have early support of 50% or higher even before the campaign season begins to have a chance of winning re-election. He found that one can on average add 6.5% to the early support and predict a huge percentage of elections based on the resulting split of the vote share between the two main pols.

Read the article; here is my explanation.

This is an average. Very often a politician who seems to be struggling in February of a Presidential or midterm election year shores up support to a considerable degree. Very few lose supporters, and those typically involve politicians who face an unusually-strong challenger or run an incompetent campaign. If you are talking about breaking scandals, then those politicians with scandals about to break get little sympathy or coverage from journalists who know a bit more than the rest of us and know enough to not touch them with a ten-foot pole.

Most incumbents got elected in the previous election, and a huge percentage get re-elected. Very few can achieve all their promises; that's how politics works. Some enter office having no idea of how to legislate or govern, and they fail. They don't get re-elected. Some go corrupt or have personal scandals involving sex. Many of those look bad before the next campaign season begins. Nobody plugs them because they will be exposed. Most of the time incumbents get to show in the next election why they got elected the first time. They ran competent and spirited campaigns and connected with voters  and do that the next time because that is their character.  The obvious exception is appointed incumbents who might not have done such and have no idea of how to do that when running in their first election, and they have about the same chance as in an open-seat election.  A rarer exception is one in which a third-party or independent candidate mucks things up. 

So if a politician has a 44% support in February going into the election then he is most likely to end up with 50.5% of the share of the vote divided between the  two main opponents.

Silver's model exists to take out assessments of the quality of the pols and partisan affiliations of a state. It allows one to predict that Russ Feingold, a well-regarded US senator from a moderate state, could lose to a right-wing fanatic who simply obeys the contributors. At times the political figure who has the support of the slumlords, loan-sharks, rapacious executives, environment-wreckers, giant farmers, and other villains of socialistic ideals are the most effective pols. Maybe we will see how that works in 2022. In a plutocracy or a society about to commit itself to the plutocratic route, he who owns the gold makes the rules and someone like Ron Johnson is perfect for that ethos.

[pbrower2a]

From Wikipedia:

Janet Napolitano was born on November 29, 1957, in New York City, the daughter of Jane Marie (née Winer) and Leonard Michael Napolitano, who was the dean of the University of New Mexico School of Medicine.[9] Her father was of Italian descent and her mother had German and Austrian ancestry.[9][10] Her grandfather was named Filippo Napolitano.

Italian-American (and only half) is not Latino.

[pbrower2a]

I expected more statewide polls.

Biden approval

positive and 50% to 55%

[pbrower2a]

Leave it to QPac to release a terrible outlier.

Here's my conjecture: independent voters are more likely to vote on pocketbook issues such as shortages, inflation, and unemployment...  or on visceral issues. Trump-era corruption and incompetence are now off the scene except perhaps in the legal realm, and there hushed up before the trials. So far the minnows have largely been caught.   .

[pbrower2a]

Biden +2 in Vermont

https://twitter.com/MatthewKolbVT/status/1481642192988880903?t=1KkgCz66tPYVvy93Z...

That is weak for the President, but I see him winning if he can define the Republicans into mostly an extremist clique  culpable of a complete lack of sensible policies. Afghanistan is Trump's deal, and should COVID-19 fade as a personal menace, then much starts to go right for the President. Add 6.5% for an incumbent seeking re-election to early approval or support (it is hard to tell whether Silver means which one) and you see a predictable result for the the final result. Of course, that is in the same year.  

Biden approval

positive and 45% to 49%
positive and 50% to 55%
[/quote]

[pbrower2a]

Remember well: the incumbent usually gets the edge in defining a somewhat-mysterious opponent. It doesn't always work well, as Jimmy Carter shows. Carter tried to show that Ronald Reagan was a capricious and reckless extremist just as the LBJ did to Goldwater and Nixon did to McGovern in blowout landslides. The Capitol Putsch will continue to fail in the 2022 and 2024 elections, and anyone connected to it will have some explaining to do.

President Biden did a good job of connecting the Putsch to a contempt for democracy among Republicans. The problem is that about 45% of Americans may have a contempt for democracy as pushed in high-school civics texts. Many Americans have a crazy idea that democracy simply means that the politicians pander to their views on cultural and ideological matters irrespective of other issues that can more severely affect their lives (economic downturns, wars that can cost the lives of their precious children, environmental degradation, and labor-management issues).

[pbrower2a]

Jan 6 the Commission is the key to Ds winning and they're findings which will be right before the Election, so the Rs think they have this Election won, think again.

Also, what are the Rs gonna do when they get empowered we had the same mask mandates under Trump, there is still labor Shortages they are against raising the minimum wage, and the tax cut they passed in 1980/2000/2017 all exacerbated the income inequality that we had between the poor and rich

I hope that you are right.

The super-cheap labor that could be treated badly in ensuring cheap food and services for Americans doing sort-of-OK, the basis of neoliberal economics, may be at an end. Neoliberal economics long suppressed inflation by ensuring that millions would be obliged to create prosperity while damned to poverty.

A disease that has killed hundreds of thousands of people in the workforce cannot fail to cause (to put it into unfeeling language characteristic of a bureaucrat or a college professor)  "economic dislocations" I suspect that deaths from COVID-19 are not so randomly scattered among vocational groups as many of us assume for a lack of knowledge.

The Party that holds the White House usually loses seats in midterm elections. Exceptions arise when the Party Outside is disorganized (Republicans in 1934) or some event (9/11) offers immediate advantages for the party in power. No President ever achieves quite what he seeks or promises, and a Congressional majority on the President's side usually gets part of the blame.

The pattern that has held with the Clinton and Obama Presidencies is likely to be tried. While incumbent and challenger Republicans run folksy ads, the Dark Money interests lavish funds on campaign ads that demonize the Democrat. If those ads could get away with accusing the Democrat of cannibalism or human sacrifice, then they would do exactly that. More likely they create phantom offenses and cause confusion while offering some phantom of safety.

Those dark Money interests have their agenda: an economic order in which no human suffering can ever be in excess so long as it realizes the power, indulgence, and gain of economic elites who see the rest of Humanity in America or elsewhere as livestock at best and vermin at worst. They want their New Feudalism in which the rich and powerful get whatever they want and the common man obeys or dies -- slowly through starvation or cold or more quickly by noose or firing squad. If they fully get their way they will make life miserable for any people but themselves, and we Americans will end up (if military age) as cannon fodder in Wars for Profit. A hint: the Axis Powers initiated their aggressive wars as Wars for Profit in the service of the gangster cliques who ruled their countries.

Our economic elites on the whole are no better than those who bankrolled the rise of Hitler in Germany.

[pbrower2a]

We're gonna win the rust belt MI, PA and WI , 2016 map where Hillary lost the trio of state isn't gonna be duplicated as long as Biden is in the WH but in a wave Election we must all remember that  it's VBM and the D cities come in last behind Rural states the County officials say be patient it can take longer than Election day to count all the ballots, the final outcome won't be known until Fri when the Military ballots come in


Trump thought the election was won and there are gonna be outstanding House seats that's not gonna be officially tallied neither on Election nights, it's VBM not same day voting, if it's same day voting of course  it's a typical R Midterm but it's not

Let's be careful about one form of voter suppression that would serve Republicans who typically lose some states due to urban votes counted late: establish that votes not counted after midnight are invalid. This of course would deny votes cast in Atlanta, Detroit, Las Vegas, Milwaukee, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, and urban parts of North Carolina and Virginia  that get counted late. Such an interpretation could easily turn some states around.   

[pbrower2a]

One needs to know:

1. what is the source of the poll? This is especially true with interactive polls that may be directed at people accessing strongly-conservative or strongly-liberal news or political sites.  Interactive polls provided by a political party, union, political-action committee, or commercial special-interest group are worthless. Insider polls generally are honest about places not reasonably in contest, but not key states.

2. the adjustments made. A pollster might have a large number of interviews from elderly people and few from younger people, and may adjust the sample sizes to reflect a more natural proportion of people interviewed.   

3. Sample size. Larger sample sizes are better; wider regional, ethnic, and economic diversity is better. States more homogeneous (let us say Vermont) or in which people are concentrated heavily in a small part of the state (Illinois) are less trickier than those with huge regional divides (Texas). This is not so much a matter of state size. I would expect the San Francisco, Los Angeles, and San Diego areas to be fairly similar in politics. I would expect Dallas to be very different from Amarillo or El Paso.

4. Questions. Loaded questions ("Do you believe that Donald Trump was a disaster as President" or "Do you question that someone nearly 80 can be an effective President?" are to be avoided. Few pollsters are that blatant, but some newbies might be.
 

 

[pbrower2a]

Trump was always in campaign mode. President Biden is not. The President must be careful about denouncing those involved in the Capitol Putsch to the detriment of prosecution. He must avoid creating prejudice against the defendants yet to be charged. Some conceivably are in the House and Senate. Some could be on high offices in some States.

Bad actors in the Capitol Putsch are almost entirely on the Right. The Biden campaign will surely make much of this. It can attempt to drive wedges between the more traditional Right and the fascist Right. So far the small-scale actors have been easier to round up and charge, and the longest terms so far have gone to those who attacked Capitol Police. There is more in the pipeline.

[pbrower2a]

It's Jan not October and the Omnicron variant is receding soon, you don't expect Biden Approvals to jump from 39 percent to 69 percent anyways all Biden needs to be is neat or close to 5o to duplicate a 3o4)235 this was explained by Nate Silver because Biden won 50)45

Don't look at 201o/14 Obama lost 59 seats in the House because most of those were blue dog districts there are very few Blue dog districts that D's are  vulnerable in, in 2022 and we kept a l63)47 Senate which contained blue wall Senators

I expect Republicans to do everything possible to reapportion seats to ruin the chances of Democrats. The normal pattern was to protect incumbents out of a respect for Congress and the extant constituencies. Republicans have had plenty of opportunity to squeeze out Democrats through reapportionment after 2000 and 2010, so there isn't much room left for more of the same. Demographic trends still favor Democrats.
 

Pbrower said when an incumbent is struggling add six to his Approvals and the Economy is 3 percent

Strictly speaking, that was the statistician Nate Silver. His 2010 analysis generally holds up well.

So users need to stop coming to this thread oh Biden is below 5o he only needs to be 5o on Election results, D's have won the PVI last time and D's are gonna get 80M Rs aren't assured 75 M but 7o M

It is still more than 33 months until Election 2024. President Biden isn't campaigning. He has more important things to do. Much that is wrong is a consequence of Trump policy. Nearly one million people dying of COVID-19 can cause huge dislocations to the economy. Inflation? It has been low because labor was incredibly cheap for almost forty years. Many people in the workplace were paid so little that despite their obvious contributions to the economy they were unable to participate much in it.

[pbrower2a]

Lots of bad stuff is going on now. $5-a-gallon gas by spring?

[pbrower2a]

Low approval numbers may reflect more the nastiness  of things as they are than any love of the Hard Right. A +10 edge for Biden over Trump suggests that Biden would do about as well in Wisconsin as Obama did in 2008. Such indicates a general D landslide in the northeastern quadrant of the United States and much of the interior west. OK, Trump is toxic for his post-election antics. +8 against DeSantis? That suggests a near-landslide.

Democrats can hope that things sort themselves out by 2024 for the Presidential election. The midterm election is not sure to bring big losses to Democrats, but with the narrow margin that Democrats have in the House, it won't take many flips of House seats from D to R in 2022 to give the GOP a narrow majority there. The problem for Republicans for that is that they picked off the low-hanging fruit in 2020 and they can pick off little more with further gerrymandering.

Of course much can go wrong, especially in foreign policy. China wishes to engulf Taiwan, and Russia wishes to turn Ukraine into a puppet state. Soaring fuel prices could create economic hardship.

If the best happens -- that Omicron is the last stand of COVID-19, inflation halts, and unemployment remains low then things go well for Democrats,,, perhaps better than one usually expects in a midterm with a Democratic President. Much of the blame still falls upon Donald Trump, and any Republican who offers much the same will probably lose.   

[pbrower2a]

It's a rough time, and President Biden doesn't spin or sugar-coat reality. Obviously inflation is largely one way, and it typically reflects economic dislocations. I'm tempted to believe that Big Business is trying to get what the traffic will bear, and it does -- until competition returns.

The best indication of the end of inflation is discounts. Excessively-high prices lead to gluts, and gluts lead to price-cutting measures. Typically customers get discounts for buying in bulk quantities while prices for single-item purchases remain high. Rebates may appear. That's before you see real price cuts.

And - the Russia-Ukraine dispute isn't getting any better. I figure that Vladimir Putin expected to make Donald Trump pay the piper about now, and given the chance he will do that to President Biden. Whoever is President at the time was not going to look good. 

[pbrower2a]

President Biden passed one big test with the whacking of a very nasty terrorist leader in Syria. He did not grandstand; he gave credit where it was due and didn't claim that any personal greatness was involved.

[pbrower2a]

President Biden passed one big test with the whacking of a very nasty terrorist leader in Syria. He did not grandstand; he gave credit where it was due and didn't claim that any personal greatness was involved.

That just means he won’t get credit for it.

It could also calm the international scene. Tensions are high, and nothing is resolved.

[pbrower2a]

Once the situation in eastern Europe gets settled -- or implodes -- we will have either a President with a reputation for solving problems without grandstanding or the lamest of lame ducks.

[pbrower2a]

The Russian-Ukrainian dispute can decide the success or failure of the Biden administration. President Biden has been firmer than many of us expected. (To be sure, Trump would have been firmer, sacrificing Ukraine (whose President had embarassed him personally), asacrificing Ukrainian interests for the opportunity to establish some Trump Hotels in Several Russian and Ukrainian cities.

This is the diciest situation in American history since the Cuban Missile Crisis.We shall see very soon whether President Biden is up to the task.

[pbrower2a]

We shall see how President Biden does in the polls of the next couple of weekends. How President Biden deals with the situation might decide the overall success or failure of his Presidency.

[pbrower2a]

How things play out in eastern Europe could well be the acid test of the assessment of the President and partisan orientations.

[pbrower2a]

https://twitter.com/hctrudo/status/1499793357127786496?s=21

That is huge. We are seeing why Biden got elected.

[pbrower2a]

SOTU speeches rarely lead to bumps in approval. President Biden addressed every cur4rent topic except the Capitol Putsch, the Putsch being addressed in the proper forum in which the President has no role: federal courts of criminal law. Except for some slurred words he got everything right that is not a promise -- and his promises are all matters of taste. The campaign is on, and such a state as Ohio which Trump won twice by high-single digits is in play.

President Biden did not give a speech reminiscent of Lincoln, FDR, or Churchill, but it was good. It is far more coherent than what we got accustomed to over four bad years. He hit some important points, like the war in Ukraine, medical costs, and the return of industrial jobs. SOTU speeches are more likely to be ignored than viewed, so any effect may be what people told others as friends including in social networks. Social networks can serve liberal causes, too.

Surely there have been some statewide polls taken this weekend, and those might be good for a very new start-over for the map.

 

[pbrower2a]

https://twitter.com/LoganR2WH/status/1499851826014871556?s=20&t=R5NDqBpXsuAl...

They never were in the bag for the GOP. They were frustrated when Democrats failed to defend themselves.

[pbrower2a]

Preparing to start anew.