Biden approval ratings thread, 1.0

[pbrower2a]

We already know that D's must win WI, MI and PA and CO, NV and NH for 265 votes AZ, GA, VA gets us 278 to o 304 and FL, OH and NC give us 369 without IA

IA is gone Grassley is up 55/37 against Fink and DeSantis is up 47/39% over Crist and Fried😁😁😁😁

We're gonna have JUNKIE POLLS FROM NOW UNTIL ELECTION NIGHT

THE REASON Why Because  Commission said at the Outset as a Fmr Prez Trump doesn't have to Testify and the jobs that's being produced aren't White Collar job except for Nursing they're only part time retail work to make a loving you must have two of them which requires you to give up weekend and your sleep their overnight shifts, in order to get full time at retail you must get overnight same with Security

Biden said in a speech yesterday he opened more Ports for What kind of jobs Warehouse Factory work Labor jobs people on SSDI, under 62 aren't going for, because you can volunteer and work many of those jobs at Food Banks and not give up your secured salary

People might take those and put off attending 4-year colleges, which is not such a bad idea when the 'college experience' is compromised. Many of the warehouse jobs involve driving a forklift, which is somewhat skilled.  What is different with COVID-19 is that the age of severely underpaying working people because employers can get away with it is over.

SSDI gives you a 60 dollar increase next yr and aren't subject to review like SSI people

Many people on SSDI are like me -- an industrial accident waiting to happen, one that could hurt not only the worker but also someone who tries to rescue that person.

We have been at a 304 map, but upsets can happen but not Nov 2021/ Nov 2022

We do not know the political dynamics. We don't know them until the electoral season is well underway.

It' saved me money on silly donations to Fink, Ryan and Demings and Beasley, I don't donate to candidate that's likely to win, I only donate to wave insurance, I donated to Kennedy, Bullock and Boiler but we lost MA because of no canvassing and AOC endorsed Markey

I have typically been to broke to do any donation. If I don;t have a financial stake I can be more objective.

[pbrower2a]

Yes... it's Florida. Florida is usually close in national politics. It will be in 2022 and 2024 unless something incredibly crazy goes on.

[pbrower2a]

 (snip -- heavily my stuff)

Biden didn't campaign on Bringing back the same jobs, I'm April and May 2022 we were producing 800K a mnth now it's 200K jobs Biden 3.5 T dollar plan says BUILD BACK BETTER ITS NOT GONNA HURT HIM IN SEN AND PREZ MAP BECAUSE OF 304 blue, he said just like Obama GREEN JOBS, THATS WHY OBAMA LOST CONGRESS IN 2020, BECAUSE Obama didn't bring the Green Jobs that he promised

Donald Trump is the one who promised an economic boom because only he could bring such about. Incumbents typically have a built-in advantage that they must really foul up to lose, and Trump came close to getting re-elected.

COVID-19 has disrupted the American economy much like a war. The mass death should be obvious enough, and President Biden has not made a commitment to the cheap-labor policies of  Republicans from Reagan to Trump that have kept wages low and prices stable. We have yet to know whether COVID-19 has decimated any categories of workers; any occupational category full of MAGA types is likely to have a worker shortage.

Lol, many workers have Graduated from College that's taking those low skilled jobs, it's called Forebears and Earn and IBRs PAY 50/100 a mnth only LOANS BACK IF YOU HAVE CERTAIN debt on Student Loans, why do you think we have a Student Loan crisis, if College Graduates earned enough money as they do in military after Graduation the military puts monies on your student loans, there would be no any Student loan crisis. Loan everyone has a College Degree it's like a HS diploma that's why so many people are going to Nursing school

If you have a college degree unlikely to put you on a fast track for economic success by joining some corporate bureaucracy, then $15 an offer as a warehouse worker looks much better than the $8 an hour wage recently offered. It's probably best that people who have little experience in honest-to-God toil before graduating from college get to learn what a factory, store, or warehouse is like. Who knows? We may be reverting to the pattern in which industrial workers were paid middle incomes again as was so in the three decades or so after World War II.

At some point, writing coherent reports, speaking clear English, and knowing some high-level math might be of value in getting ahead. Such has usually paid off, if not until age 30 or so.

Now we must ask what the purpose of a solid college education is: since the time of the medieval university it has been to improve the young adult. If one attends college and fails to learn that there is more to life than material indulgence, bureaucratic power, sex, drugs, and rock-and-roll, and cheap thrills, then one's education is wasted. The tragedy isn't that someone with a solid education ends up a machinist. The tragedy is that someone graduates from college and can't think of anything better to do than get drunk, fornicate, and imbibe in mass low culture. 

.

That was the pt I was making, the Govt don't care how you pay back loans they want you to take 3 jobs to pay them back because what does Govt take out of our checks income taxes,monies that can used to put on Student Loans, Credit Reports don't account for Food you have to pay, they only list your debts including housing

When semi-skilled work pays badly and those who do the work get treated badly, then that looks like a good reason to get a college degree even if its only advantage is to get one a job as a glorified clerk. A teller with a BA degree has a better chance of doing something else than does a teller with only a high-school diploma.

If you are under 35 you can be a Cop and serve  in Military but who wants to go thru that training run 2 miles a day and eat hardly any meat, but athletes

Police forces are attracting more people with college degrees. Police work is well paid and much safer (due to bullet-proof vests) than it used to be. All that one need do is to look at the "executed offenders" list  in some states. Twenty-five years ago many of them were cop-killers. There are far fewer of those, probably because those who pull a gun on a cop end up dead and never go on trial for Capital Murder.   

Gavin Newsom. Lied he said that if you didn't get your stimulus check you would get it thru mail last WK, it was another gimmick to get reelected, I still am waiting and waiting and waiting for my 600

When COVID-19 abates (it should have by now, but you cannot generally fault Democrats), we may have a robust economy in which practically anyone who wants a job can get one, if not his dream... and a job in which one need not have two just to pay the landlord. We have a housing shortage because America quit building residential properties other than McMansions after the 2008 crash. Much of our housing was built when America had 150 million or so people and we now have nearly 350 million, so we have some obvious imbalances.. 

[pbrower2a]

If you want to see why I have not responded...

 I pay attention largely to statewide polling  The states elect the President, and the people do not. That explains why Dubya won in 2000 and Trump won in 2016. Indeed, Trump came close to winning the Presidency in 2020 despite being down nearly 7 million in the popular vote and Biden winning an absolute majority of the vote.

The Founding Fathers established a federal system for determining who became President. It was wise then because comparatively few people voted. The slave-owning interests wanted their two-legged property to be represented even if that property could never vote to put slavery at risk of abolition by law. 

In our time we pay attention to swing states and not so much the margin in California or Texas unless some trend is obvious. With the Electoral College it does not matter whether a Democrat wins California or New York by 55-43 or 77-20. What matters more is that someone gets or does not get an edge in Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, or Wisconsin.

That is why I use a map. I have seen few statewide polls recently. The statewide polls that I have on my most recent map show a near-landslide for the GOP. My statewide map always lags the dynamic reality; such is its nature. It shows a generic Republican winning Minnesota.

[pbrower2a]

Politics is messy, and in 2021 it is really messy in America. One of the two main parties has abandoned  some of the fundamental decencies of a Party willing to do the give-and-take necessary for democratic government, For it , politics has become an all-or-nothing proposition instead of compromise. That party wants complete power indefinitely on behalf (in public) for people who believe themselves left out of American economic life sand for the well-heeled heels who fund it and its ruthless operatives, nearly all the fruits of American prosperity.

We have mirror-image Marxists who believe that no human suffering can ever be in excess on behalf of the economic elites, a primitive and premodern view of social organization. Those mirror-image Marxists willing to degrade the level of political discourse and destroy democracy to  get what they want. Simon Legree meets Orwell's Big Brother.

You may fault what you wish in American culture from mass media to religion, but those are easier to exploit than anything else because their consumers often have no idea that they are being manipulated.   

[pbrower2a]

Connecticut: PPP, Oct. 21-22, 729 LV

Approve 48
Disapprove 43

Virginia, (B+)-rated Suffolk University, 500 LV

https://www.suffolk.edu/-/media/suffolk/documents/academics/research-at-suffolk/suprc/polls/other-states/2021/10_26_2021_tables.pdf?la=en&hash=06F70767CC4BC3FD43D9CDB42ECC52E3512D8F2D

Job Approval:
Biden 41/52
Northam 47/42

Fav:
Biden 45/50
Northam 44/42
Youngkin 43/36
McAuliffe 43/42


Right/wrong direction:
26/66

If you can find my last state approval map, please post it for these updates. If things are as bad for President Biden in 2024, then prepare a fascist America.

[pbrower2a]

Connecticut: PPP, Oct. 21-22, 729 LV

Approve 48
Disapprove 43

Virginia, (B+)-rated Suffolk University, 500 LV

https://www.suffolk.edu/-/media/suffolk/documents/academics/research-at-suffolk/suprc/polls/other-states/2021/10_26_2021_tables.pdf?la=en&hash=06F70767CC4BC3FD43D9CDB42ECC52E3512D8F2D

Job Approval:
Biden 41/52
Northam 47/42

Fav:
Biden 45/50
Northam 44/42
Youngkin 43/36
McAuliffe 43/42


Right/wrong direction:
26/66

If you can find my last state approval map, please post it for these updates. If things are as bad for President Biden in 2004, then prepare a fascist America.

New Hampshire, (A/B)-rated Saint Anselm College, 1323 New Hampshire registered voters.

https://htv-prod-media.s3.amazonaws.com/files/saintanselmcollegesurveyoctober2021-1635277209.pdf

Approvals
Biden 44/56 (strongly 19/52)
Sununu 56/42
Shaheen 46/48
Hassan 44/50

GB - R+3

Would you say that things in our country are heading in the right direction, or have things
gotten off on the wrong track?

• Right 21%
• Wrong 68%

Looking at the national picture, President Joe Biden’s job performance rating in the Garden State has dropped into net negative territory – 43% approve and 49% disapprove. His prior ratings from New Jersey voters showed him with majority approval levels (51% in August and 55% in May). By contrast, Murphy has maintained a positive rating as governor since the pandemic began. He currently stands at 52% approve and 39% disapprove, a result that is basically in line with his ratings throughout this year. About one-third of New Jersey voters (32%) say Murphy has been able to get more things done in Trenton than Biden has in Washington. Just 7% say Murphy has done less while nearly half (47%) say the two men have been able to get the same amount done.

https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/monmouthpoll_nj_102721/

[pbrower2a]

Could someone please find my statewide polling map?

OK, OK, OK... some legislative success is likely to improve things for President Biden. 

[pbrower2a]

I leave family members out of judgment of their more distinguished figures in politics. Hunter Biden had his problems. So did Neal Bush. Billy Carter was a sick joke. The exception is if the prominent family member is complicit in the wrongdoing.

If you are familiar with WGN for its weather forecasts, then do you fault Tom Skilling for the misdeeds of Enron crook Jeffrey Skilling?

[pbrower2a]

DeSantis is just as popular as Kim Reynolds

Scary, isn't it? They get away with bungled responses to COVID-19.

I'm not visiting Iowa or Florida while COVID-19 is running wild.

[pbrower2a]

https://twitter.com/PollsandOdds/status/1456293020194725894?s=20

Civiqs had Biden underwater in March. It’s bullsh*t

That's a slight (if perhaps not statistically significant) uptick for President Biden.  He needs some successes if he is not to be the New Jimmy Carter who ushers in a new and protracted era of politics opposite his. That's mirror-image Marxism, the endorsement of the very practices, behaviors, and conditions that Marxists attribute to capitalism, differing with the Marxists only in endorsing the vileness of capitalism at its worst (inequality, militarism, class privilege, plutocratic organization, and managerial brutality) as virtues.

[pbrower2a]

https://twitter.com/PollsandOdds/status/1456293020194725894?s=20

Civiqs had Biden underwater in March. It’s bullsh*t

That's a slight (if perhaps not statistically significant) uptick for President Biden.  He needs some successes if he is not to be the New Jimmy Carter who ushers in a new and protracted era of politics opposite his. That's mirror-image Marxism, the endorsement of the very practices, behaviors, and conditions that Marxists attribute to capitalism, differing with the Marxists only in endorsing the vileness of capitalism at its worst (inequality, militarism, class privilege, plutocratic organization, and managerial brutality) as virtues.

Where is the maps, man? C'mon, we need the maps!

Btw, per CNN's exit-poll Biden's approval in Virginia is at 46/53.

I can't find them!

I 'd love to show them. I'm not going to say that the current bad polling will go in any direction, but showing how bad things got may have some interest should things change. In the last map I had my first polling numbers for Minnesota and Ohio. [

[pbrower2a]

Salman and Vladimir would both like to have Trump again as President.

[pbrower2a]

Ipsos Core Political Data (weekly), Nov. 3-4, 1005 adults

Approve 48 (+4)
Disapprove 47 (-4)

Is the shock over?

We have just endured some of the worst inflation since the Civil War. We have a death toll from COVID-19 that resembles a very bad war. "Afghanistan" is sinking in as a fait accompli by #45.

[pbrower2a]

After the infrastructure bill, a political BFD upon which the President has staked everything, I can basically start over with polls  that have been hideous. Those are worth showing as a contrast to what may emerge. Legislative successes can decide success or failure of an Administration, even if it is only one big one (like Obama's Affordable Care Act).

Folks, legislative successes are leadership. I'm not going to predict how such will appear in subsequent polling. It is far too easy to measure that, and polls will measure that.

So there is mass resistance to the President's reasonable means of crushing an enemy that makes Osama bin Laden look like a piker even if such resistance leads to mass death. We have the President's foreign policy blind-0sided in Afghanistan because of a fait accompli that the previous President "gave" us -- and also gave the unfortunate people of Afghanistan. (I am no prophet, but I have every cause to believe that we will end up with American boots on the ground in Afghanistan; I don't trust the Taliban to make the right choice on anything).   

Approval

[/quote]

I will need to backtrack. Of course, I am tempted to start "Biden approval ratings thread, 1.1" as the infrastructure bill will decide whether Democrats have a chance of winning the Presidency in 2024.   

[pbrower2a]

Backtracking starts here.

https://twitter.com/PollsandOdds/status/1456305354254561282?s=20

[/quote]

Biden approval:

negative and  below 40%

With numbers like these, the Republican party should end up with the sort of power in America that the Communist Party has in China, and for a very long time.

[pbrower2a]

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1453728970508177422?s=20

New Hampshire, (A/B)-rated Saint Anselm College, 1323 New Hampshire registered voters.

https://htv-prod-media.s3.amazonaws.com/files/saintanselmcollegesurveyoctober2021-1635277209.pdf

Approvals
Biden 44/56 (strongly 19/52)
Sununu 56/42
Shaheen 46/48
Hassan 44/50

GB - R+3

Would you say that things in our country are heading in the right direction, or have things
gotten off on the wrong track?

    Right 21%
    Wrong 68%

Connecticut: PPP, Oct. 21-22, 729 LV

Approve 48
Disapprove 43

https://mobile.twitter.com/HotlineJosh/status/1453021819691311114

[/quote]

Biden approval:


positive and between 50% and 54%
positive and under 50%
white: tie
negativeand between 45% and 49%
negative and between 40% and 45%
negative and  below 40% [

With numbers like these, the Republican party should end up with the sort of power in America that the Communist Party has in China, and for a very long time.

[pbrower2a]

Go back to page 107, and approval numbers for President Biden are nearly 50% nationwide.

The map that I have looks like a good place from which to restart. All polls are from before the passage of the infrastructure bill, and this shows what a failed Presidency looks like.  President Biden would win California, Massachusetts, and New York, so that precludes the Republicans winning a landslide of the style of Reagan in 1980, at least in the Electoral College. 

Salivate, O Republicans, for this is the prettiest map you are likely to see (unless you see one of those medieval maps better known for artistic value than for geographical accuracy I expect plenty of approval polls being taken even this weekend. I'm not predicting which ones and how they will look.   

[pbrower2a]

OK -- it turns out that CIVIQs has fiffty state polls, so I in fact have far more data here. These are interactive polls, and they really should not be compared to others except between other such polls. All fifty states are included, which is something that no other pollster offers.  

I still do not fully trust interactive polls, and these are the first of this kind to be released.  I have seen no polls of this kind at least since the Trump Presidency, and I almost expect these to come out regularly. They might be especially good as fill-ins for states that rarely get polled (like Illinois).

[/quote]

Biden approval:

positive and over 55%
between 50% and 54%
positive and under 50%
white=tie
negative and between 45% and 49%
negative and between 40% and 44%
negative and  below 40%

Some general comments on what I see:

1. This map suggests that if running for re-election, Joe Biden would get somewhere near 110 electoral votes.  

2. Democrats will be trounced in the 2022 Congressional election and can expect to lose just about everything contested in the Senate.

3. Although predictions of the death of a political party are hysterical, the GOP is much more ruthless and fanatical than it was in the Reagan era and far more so than Democrats in FDR's time. The sorts of politicians who are the mainstream within the GOP  are no more trustworthy with human rights, civil liberties, the rule of law, and respect for ideological difference than are Commies, fascists, Ba'athists, or Iranian Hezbollah.

I'll stop there. You can imagine the rest.  

"Einigkeit und Recht und Freiheit!"

[pbrower2a]

Polling done this weekend will generally not get published until the middle of this week. America has been under much political stress, and in general people dislike political stress.

President Biden bet big and won. Americans like political winners.

[pbrower2a]

Biden approval:


positive and between 50% and 54%
positive and under 50%
white: tie
negativeand between 45% and 49%
negative and between 40% and 45%
negative and  below 40% [

37% approval? Trump was there in Iowa once and still won Iowa in 3030.

[pbrower2a]

If the approval number for President  Biden get close to to 50-50, then we will soon see individual state polls inconsistent with what is here. Obama got about a 7% boost after getting Osama bin Laden whacked, which didn't change much in American lives but made most of us feel good.

Connecticut and Maryland don't get polled often, so when we see a poll for Michigan (which does get polled often) in which Biden is up 51-47 in approval numbers we will ask "how is the map so apparently wrong for Connecticut"? It will be a distinction between an old poll and a new one.

[pbrower2a]

Biden has lost approvals among his base because D's thought they were getting Doug Jones in Merrick Garland,Trump is still free able to influence the 2022/ Elections, Garland is a big part of it

D's aren't gonna get much further in Jan 6th Commission because all the witnesses are asserting the 5th or defying the supenoas.
But, the Election was sca ye, anything can happen if you keep focusing on negative polls , both parties are crooked they get you excited to donate to their campaign that's all they do both D's and Ra

Sorry pbower2A, D's aren't gonna get Bannon to testify, the  Election. Will be here and Stonewall the Commission it's over with Jan 23

I expect Steve Bannon et al to do exactly what Mafia dons did before the Kefauver Committee in the 1950's; say nothing except to plead the fifth amendment. The mobsters well knew that lying to Congress would get them prison time.

There's a big difference: the mobsters had no obvious connections to partisan politics.

[pbrower2a]

If the approval number for President  Biden get close to to 50-50, then we will soon see individual state polls inconsistent with what is here. Obama got about a 7% boost after getting Osama bin Laden whacked, which didn't change much in American lives but made most of us feel good.

Connecticut and Maryland don't get polled often, so when we see a poll for Michigan (which does get polled often) in which Biden is up 51-47 in approval numbers we will ask "how is the map so apparently wrong for Connecticut"? It will be a distinction between an old poll and a new one.

No -- just a hypothetical scenario. Michigan gets polled often, and Connecticut gets polled rarely.

Are you claiming that Biden's approval in Michigan is 51-47?

[pbrower2a]

If it’s PBrower or Wbrocks posting it’s a relatively good poll. If it’s Sergi it’s a bad one. I don’t even need to see the numbers.

The Insurrectionists Commission has gotten the criminals to jail but the FBI refuses to Prosecute the planners of the insurrection pbower2A CERTAINLY believes in the Insurrectionists Commission

Unless Bannon is gonna testify, there is not gonna be a smoking gun that's gonna propell D's to a landslide election


Who cares about Biden low Approvals, we now know whom was the Greatest Prez ever, since LBJ it wasn't Biden or Clinton whom had Reade or Lewinsky, it was Obama

The next effective conservative President we have will act much like Obama. A bad right-wing President might either rend America or kill democracy. Except for not winning the farm-and-ranch vote as Ike did, Obama won much like Ike. Just look at the overlays between Ike and Obama.

Biden is nothing without Obama as we see in his low Approvals if Rs take control so be it, our lives aren't gonna change that much anyhow

Repudiating Trump adequately isn't enough for Presidential greatness; it is only necessary.

All it does you can save your money if you are a D for Act blue but polls outside of Aug 22 are meaningless

I expect Democrats to exploit January 6 as much as possible in 2022. We are in politically-uncharted waters. It is far too early to say that the rules have changed.

Obama wasn't favored to win landslides in 2008/12 he was favored to win CO, NV, NM but he won IN, NC and FL too, D's have more targets 22 Rs are upp in Senate only 12 D's are up in on A WI, GA, PA, NH, NV are going D with OH on the bubble since Mandel is a weak candidate and FL Gov can be won if Stone run as a Libertarian

Enough to get DC Statehood 222/216 DH and 53/47 DS

Obama entered the landslide zone when the stock market melted down with everyone asking whether it was 1929 all over and because the Republicans had a disastrous choice as the VP nominee.

Democrats have generally handled COVID-19 well, but most Republicans have been unmitigated disasters more effective at superficial cover-ups and demagoguery than at solving the menace.