Biden approval ratings thread, 1.0

[pbrower2a]

The People love Their new president!

https://twitter.com/scottwongDC/status/1353821695828783106

Some more info from their poll...

There's obviously much room for decline -- which has an obvious meaning. Joe Biden is not going to get 63% of the popular vote in 2024, and this level of approval generally does not hold. Still, it is far better than what Trump has ever had. President Biden can get away with telling people what he really must say.

[pbrower2a]

Earlier than I expected. Both states were polled often over the last four years. It is an excellent start for President Biden. Forty-eight to go.  

[pbrower2a]

Earlier than I expected. Both states were polled often over the last four years. It is an excellent start for President Biden. Forty-eight to go.  

Why hasn't pbower2A mentioned Impeachment, I would like him to talk about Impeachment since he was so confident about the Ukraine Impeachment saga

I'm not sure what the impeachment will be about, and I will not predict the result.

I was confident about Trump being impeached involving Ukraine because Democrats really had no choice. It was a matter of national security, something that Republicans ordinarily use against Democrats for being 'soft'.

I do not ordinarily predict the results of criminal or civil cases. 

[pbrower2a]

His approval is probably gonna be in the low 30’s. Far left will turn on him.


And no, I don’t care about the BS MSM polling. Rasmussen is more reliable

No. No. No.

The Far Left isn't particularly large, and getting and keeping its support just isn't worth it. See also the Far Right. 

[pbrower2a]

Wow! I thought that Mitch McConnell would have done a better job of saving his political skin. Too little, too late?

We have a problem with the perception of the stability of our political order:

36. Do you think that - the state of the nation's democracy is a crisis, a problem but not a crisis, or not a problem at all?
                     ADULTS.................................................
                                                               WHITE........
                                                               4 YR COLL DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Crisis               45%    49%    45%    42%    45%    45%    43%    47%
Problem/Not crisis   43     35     48     45     42     44     50     42
Not a problem at all  9     11      5     12     10      8      6      7
DK/NA                 3      5      2      1      3      3      1      4
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    NonWht
 
Crisis               40%    41%    50%    51%    46%    46%    46%    44%
Problem/Not crisis   41     48     42     42     41     48     45     42
Not a problem at all 15     11      6      5     10      3      7     13
DK/NA                 3      -      2      2      3      2      2      2

I cannot imagine anyone asking this question before January 6.
 

[pbrower2a]

Joe Biden job approval rating by state:

GA: Biden+26
NH: Biden+18

Key:

30% red shade: Biden up 1-5%
40% red shade: Biden up 5-10%
50% red shade: Biden up 10-15%
60% red shade: Biden up 15-20%
70% red shade: Biden up 20-25%
80% red shade: Biden up 25-30%
90% red shade: Biden up 30%+

50% green shade: tie

30% blue shade: Biden down 1-5%
40% blue shade: Biden down 5-10%
50% blue shade: Biden down 10-15%
60% blue shade: Biden down 15-20%
70% blue shade: Biden down 20-25%
80% blue shade: Biden down 25-30%
90% blue shade: Biden down 30%+

It is approval ratings, and not favorability ratings. Favorability ratings are relevant when they are blatant  (as in states that are not close and usually do not get polled, like New York or Oklahoma) because the states rarely decide an election, but they always must defer to approval. Would I use a favorability rating for Illinois? Sure. Wisconsin? Absolutely not.

Transition ratings are relevant until the reality of political life sets in.  That will set in soon enough, and states in which transition ratings are measured will become the ones in which, I would expect, polling will be repeated and either say much the same or reveal that something has changed.

For now I am sticking with Tender Branson's model. We are at 21 months away from the midterm elections and 45 months away from the next Presidential election. With Obama (who posed no questions of health) and Trump (who saw power as an aphrodisiac) there were no questions of the desire for a Second Term. President Biden is entering the zone of age in which people drop off like flies, and those that don't usually recognize their limitations catching up to their talents.

Approval numbers give some guide to the likelihood of an incumbent politician winning re-election. With a Governor or Senator, approval within one state is good enough. With the Presidency, approval in enough key states is good enough. I expect to fill in to Tender's map.     

[pbrower2a]

Elon University, North Carolina:

synopsis: Biden approval 49, disapproval 33.

also of interest:

“How responsible do you think former President Trump is for the violence at the Capitol
Building on January 6th?”

Very Somewhat Slightly not at all (registered voters, which will be very close to the 2020 electorate)
 
43........16.........14.........27

Biden would probably win a re-match in North Carolina. Trump is now toxic in the Tarheel state.

https://www.elon.edu/u/elon-poll/wp-content/uploads/sites/819/2021/02/Elon-Poll-Report-020521.pdf

California (PPIC)  -- a synopsis:

approval on handling the COVID-19 plague:

Donald Trump 32-66 (October 20, and this is likely stable)
Joe Biden 71-20 (January 21)

Is climate change a major threat?

55% African-Americans
59% whites
64% Latinos
67% Asian-Americans  

(California is particularly vulnerable to climate change in heat waves and droughts)

“Overall, from what you know so far, do you approve or disapprove of the way that Joe Biden is
handling his job as president?”
Approve Disapprove Don’t know
All adults 70% 24% 7%
Likely voters 65 31 4
Party
Democrats 89 7 4
Republicans 24 68 7
Independents 65 26 9
Region
Central Valley 63 32 5
Inland Empire 63 27 10
Los Angeles 74 19 7
Orange/San Diego 71 23 6
San Francisco Bay Area 71 21 8

(I'm going with "likely voters", but it makes no difference on the map)

https://www.ppic.org/wp-content/uploads/ppic-statewide-survey-californians-and-their-government-january-2021.pdf

I will use the favorability number for New York. It may differ from approval, but not that much to cause me to expect any difference in characterization. Utah has been polled enough last year that I can expect more satisfaction from an approval number. Texas is too close and now politically erratic  for me to use any favorability number, and Wisconsin is way too close.

Key:

30% red shade: Biden up 1-5%
40% red shade: Biden up 5-10%
50% red shade: Biden up 10-15%
60% red shade: Biden up 15-20%
70% red shade: Biden up 20-25%
80% red shade: Biden up 25-30%
90% red shade: Biden up 30%+

50% green shade: tie

30% blue shade: Biden down 1-5%
40% blue shade: Biden down 5-10%
50% blue shade: Biden down 10-15%
60% blue shade: Biden down 15-20%
70% blue shade: Biden down 20-25%
80% blue shade: Biden down 25-30%
90% blue shade: Biden down 30%+


It is approval ratings, and not favorability ratings. Favorability ratings are relevant when they are blatant  (as in states that are not close and usually do not get polled, like New York or Oklahoma) because the states rarely decide an election, but they always must defer to approval. Would I use a favorability rating for Illinois? Sure. Wisconsin? Absolutely not.

*an asterisk indicates that I have accepted a favorability rating.  

[pbrower2a]

pbrower, don't use favourables and approvals in the same map !

That's very confusing and unscientific.

There is already the map above with the approvals, so you can create a favourable map if you want.

I have only one favorable, and that is New York, which is incontrovertible. I rejected favorable numbers for Texas, Utah, and Wisconsin for very good reason. If there were a +70 favorable number for Biden the District of Columbia I would put it clearly in the +30 zone for approval. If there were a -50 favorability for Biden in Oklahoma I would use it to suggest that Biden has a -30 differential percentage in Oklahoma. 

[pbrower2a]

Personality cult? No. Just doing much right early.

The harder stuff comes later.

It may be more disdain for Trump policies than anything else.

[pbrower2a]

Hobby School of Public Affairs, University of Houston

https://uh.edu/hobby/tx2021/attitudes.pdf

TEXAS

This may be water over the dam or under the bridge, but at this point if Trump were up for election (he isn't, of course) he would lose. It's favorability, but with these numbers the difference cannot mean that much when one contrasts politicians. This of course follows the insane events at the US Capitol about a month ago. Texas is increasingly becoming a microcosm of America in most aspects of life, although it is still decidedly more Republican than the US as a whole.

Trump did win the state decisively, although less decisively than any Republican nominee since Dole in 1996.

....................VF  SF N SU VUDK Joe Biden       26 15 11 5 37 6 Kamala Harris 25 14   8 6 37 10 Donald Trump 29 10   5 5 46 5

VF very favorable
SF somewhat favorable
N  (neutral) neither favorable nor unfavorable
SU slightly unfavorable
VU very unfavorable
DK don't know/no response

Biden is at 41-43, but Trump is at 39-51 in favorability. To be sure, that is not approval, but I can see no way of seeing Biden more positively than Trump among Texas voters for now.  

No, this does not belong on the approval map, but it clearly says something about Texas.

[pbrower2a]

Michigan: PPP, Feb. 2-3, 846 voters

Approve 53
Disapprove 44

Strongly approve 45
Strongly disapprove 39

NH-St. Anselm:

53-45

Link

KY-Mason Dixon:

39-49

Link

MS-Mason Dixon:

35-56

Link

SD-Spry:

42-52

Link

WA-SurveyUSA:

56-28

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=5ec9d3a2-bd83-4685-9802-54b1035a0b0d

The honeymoon is over, and Biden approvals mostly look like inverses of those for Trump. Kentucky and Mississippi voters disapprove of convicting former President Trump for his role in the Capitol Putsch of January 6. No such question is asked about South Dakota.

Key:

30% red shade: Biden up 1-5%
40% red shade: Biden up 5-10%
50% red shade: Biden up 10-15%
60% red shade: Biden up 15-20%
70% red shade: Biden up 20-25%
80% red shade: Biden up 25-30%
90% red shade: Biden up 30%+

50% green shade: tie

30% blue shade: Biden down 1-5%
40% blue shade: Biden down 5-10%
50% blue shade: Biden down 10-15%
60% blue shade: Biden down 15-20%
70% blue shade: Biden down 20-25%
80% blue shade: Biden down 25-30%
90% blue shade: Biden down 30%+


It is approval ratings, and not favorability ratings. Favorability ratings are relevant when they are blatant  (as in states that are not close and usually do not get polled, like New York or Oklahoma) because the states rarely decide an election, but they always must defer to approval. Would I use a favorability rating for Illinois? Sure. Wisconsin? Absolutely not.

*an asterisk indicates that I have accepted a favorability rating.  New York State only.

[pbrower2a]

Neither the NY nor the GA poll should be used for pbrowers map.

Georgia got polled often in 2020. I expect to have a different poll fairly soon. I would guess that the reality is something like 5% by now. I doubt that Georgia is to the left of Michigan or New Hampshire.

Then again, I have noticed that Biden polls are typically inverses of what Trump had. Polling data is stills in a movie.

[pbrower2a]

Just saying Trump has a 87% approval from Rs and they are Patriots in the South, they believe in strength I'm military and vets and Rs use the bully pulprit to project that strength

87% of at most 45% of the electorate  is just over 39% of the vote. Trump will need at least 8% more from Independents and Democrats. In as polarized an environment as this, that is difficult. Should polarization weaken, then such is not likely to favor so polarizing a character as Donald Trump.

[pbrower2a]

55% is more like it than 62%. Still, that is far better than Trump's start. Trump had to gain to win re-election despite demographic trends working against him. 

[pbrower2a]

As a rule I never accept Excellent-Good-Fair-Poor polls because  "fair" is ambiguous. "Fair" weather is good weather. "Fair" dealing is honorable. "Fair" playing by a 7-year-old violinist is remarkably prodigious. "Fair" playing by an adult is something that you do not want to pay to hear.   

[pbrower2a]

NY-Siena:

55% excellent/good
17% fair
21% poor

65% favourable
29% unfavourable

https://scri.siena.edu/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/SNY0221-CrosstabsALL.pdf

Job approval is very different, though, from favorability at 55-38.

Right, but as pbrower pointed out, "fair" is very subjective; it could mean either mild approval or mild disapproval to the respondent.  Harry Enten (I believe) said that based on surveys that tried to drill down further on such responses, you could ascribe about 1/3 of "fair" to approval and 2/3 to disapproval.  If we do that here, it would work out to about 61/33 approval/disapproval.

Even favorability is more reliable than EGFP.... and the ratings of approval and favorability usually converge toward the end of a term in office.  I still keep the New York "favorability" poll but not the E-G-F-P poll.

OK, I have seen letter-grade polls. I interpret A as strong approval, B as slight approval, C as basically undecided, D as slight disapproval, and E or F (the failing grade in Michigan is still "E") as strong disapproval.  

I have never seen any "1 through 10" polls, probably because they could be confusing.  

[pbrower2a]

Utah:



https://www.deseret.com/utah/2021/2/21/22290323/poll-what-utahns-think-joe-biden-first-month-job-performance-coronavirus-handling-trump

1. It is Utah, one of the usual strongest states for Republican pols. Trump had some trouble here, but he is off the scene.  This is extremely good performance for a Democrat. Did Obama ever get to this level of support in Utah? OK, Obama is a poor comparison for Utah because he ended up losing 72-24 or Romney in 2012. I'd love to see a preference poll pitting Obama against Trump in Utah.

2. A 6% gap in Utah is far less than one could reasonably expect. If this were where Biden were early in the 2024 electoral season and he had to win Utah, he could have a chance. The line of approval for having a 50% chance of winning re-election for an incumbent in a state-wide race is roughly 43.5% at the start of an electoral season.  

3. This is a Rasmussen poll, and Scott Rasmussen usually polls favorably to Republicans.

4. It is arguable that President Biden is getting credit for

(1) the response to COVID-19, and
(2) showing no mercy to the insurrectionists.

Mormons have no tolerance for political violence or street crime. If you can't behave yourself, then stay out of Utah.  

VA (CNU)

57% approve
36% disapprove

https://cnu.edu/wasoncenter/surveys/archive/2021-02-23.html

Stronger than the electoral result.

St. Leo University, Feb. 7-14


National (1000 adults):

Approve 61
Disapprove 32

Strongly approve 38
Strongly disapprove 24


Florida (500 adults, separate from national survey):

Approve 56
Disapprove 35

Strongly approve 37
Strongly disapprove 27

Makes sense.

Net approval in Florida is 8% lower than the national approval. Florida also voted 7.8% to the right of the nation in November.

To be on the safe side though I'd scratch off 15 percentage points.

Twelve Thirteen states now. Over one fourth, and Biden is in positive territory in two states that he lost.

A hint: Biden got about the same percentage of the popular vote in 2020 as Reagan got in 1980 against a troubled incumbent. I'm not saying that he wins 49 states in 2024...    

Key:

30% red shade: Biden up 1-5%
40% red shade: Biden up 5-10%
50% red shade: Biden up 10-15%
60% red shade: Biden up 15-20%
70% red shade: Biden up 20-25%
80% red shade: Biden up 25-30%
90% red shade: Biden up 30%+

50% green shade: tie

30% blue shade: Biden down 1-5%
40% blue shade: Biden down 5-10%
50% blue shade: Biden down 10-15%
60% blue shade: Biden down 15-20%
70% blue shade: Biden down 20-25%
80% blue shade: Biden down 25-30%
90% blue shade: Biden down 30%+


It is approval ratings, and not favorability ratings. Favorability ratings are relevant when they are blatant  (as in states that are not close and usually do not get polled, like New York or Oklahoma) because the states rarely decide an election, but they always must defer to approval. Would I use a favorability rating for Illinois? Sure. Wisconsin? Absolutely not.

*an asterisk indicates that I have accepted a favorability rating.  New York State only.

[pbrower2a]

*an asterisk indicates that I have accepted a favorability rating.  New York State only.

A massive asterisk should go on Georgia as well. You used approval of transition for that state, even when a favorability rating is available on the same poll (+11.0%). It's a close state no less so I don't understand why you use "Approval of Transition" when those polls had Biden in the 60s nationally.

Neither the NY nor the GA poll should be used for pbrowers map.

I expect another poll of Georgia fairly soon, Georgia was polled often during the last four years, and I expect it to draw much polling attention again. In those days I typically replaced old polls quickly.

[pbrower2a]

St. Leo is a joke pollster.

They were off by 10 points each in FL and nationally ...

Even with that caveat, Biden is up 9 points in approval. That is the same category as which Biden approval is in Michigan.

The election is over, and the libel that the Trump campaign and the GOP had of Biden-Harris being basically "Castro-Maduro" is over. Approval numbers for President Biden relate to his performance, and not to what his detractors said of him during the election. 

[pbrower2a]

I somehow missed this one:

Not saying that 2022 is gonna be an R wave, but a neutral cycle is most likely with a narrow House and Senate majority that resurrect the 291 blue wall

NC, OH, FL are wave Insurance only if the Economy comes back to 3.5 percent and full Unemployment, but we haven't seen that since 2019 Xmas time

That's why Evers is slightly leading and Johnson is at 35 percent approvals

By 291 blue wall do you mean all the states Clinton won + Georgia + NE-2 + ME-2?

I think this would be a more accurate blue wall (for the near future):

When excluding ME-2, this only fetches 220 electoral votes (in 2024 under current projections).

The whole idea of walls anyway is dumb, though. They're simply meant to be broken at some point. The only question is which state will leave first.


Also, new poll that I don't think has been posted here:

Feb. 8 - 9 Poll of 937 Wisconsin voters by Public Policy Polling (PPP)

Do you approve or disapprove of President Joe Biden’s job performance?

Approve 47%
Disapprove 45%
Not sure 8%

Net Approval +2%

I think it's pretty accurate as well because of this question:

In the 2020 election for President, did you vote for Republican Donald Trump, Democrat Joe Biden, someone else, or did you not vote in the election?

Donald Trump 48%
Joe Biden 48%
Someone else 4%

So that's about right

Fourteen states now. Over one fourth, and Biden is in positive territory in two states that he lost. Biden is in positive territory in four of the seven closest states of the 2020 election, two of which he lost, and for the three others (Arizona, Nevada, and Pennsylvania) we simply have no polls.

Wisconsin is not locked down for 2024 according to the above poll. Could it be trending Right?

 Q2 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Ron
Johnson’s job performance?

Approve 35% .......................................................
Disapprove 48% ...................................................
Not sure 17% ................................................

Q9 Do you think Senator Ron Johnson is more
interested in representing all of Wisconsin, or
more interested in representing only his
supporters?  

Think Senator Ron Johnson is more
interested in representing all of Wisconsin.....37%


Think Senator Ron Johnson is more
interested in representing only his supporters 51%

Not sure 12%

This is one of the most reactionary members of the Senate, and he is up for re-election in 2022. These early numbers are not career-killers, but he has his work cut out for him. He needs a huge shift in the political culture of Wisconsin to get re-elected.

Q4 Do you approve or disapprove of the job
Republicans in the State Legislature are
doing?
Approve 31% .......................................................
Disapprove 55% ...................................................
Not sure 14%

The Wisconsin state legislature could be gerrymandered into safe seats, but this is not a particularly good environment for Republicans in statewide elections.

Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable
opinion of Scott Walker?
Favorable 42% .....................................................
Unfavorable 48% ..................................................
Not sure 11%

An obvious candidate for the Senate seat up in 2022 as a Republican nominee should Ron Johnson choose not to run for re-election. Running for re-election despite polls that show one headed for defeat (Ron Johnson) is an example of vanitas vanitatum. Senator Ron Q-Anon may not see it coming.  

This is a sample close to that of a composite of the electorate of the 2016 or 2020 Presidential election in Wisconsin:.  

Q10 In the 2020 election for President, did you vote
for Republican Donald Trump, Democrat Joe
Biden, someone else, or did you not vote in the
election?
Donald Trump 48% ...............................................
Joe Biden 48% .....................................................
Someone else 4%

A hint: Biden got about the same percentage of the popular vote in 2020 as Reagan got in 1980 against a troubled incumbent. I'm not saying that he wins 49 states in 2024...    

Key:

30% red shade: Biden up 1-5%
40% red shade: Biden up 5-10%
50% red shade: Biden up 10-15%
60% red shade: Biden up 15-20%
70% red shade: Biden up 20-25%
80% red shade: Biden up 25-30%
90% red shade: Biden up 30%+

50% green shade: tie

30% blue shade: Biden down 1-5%
40% blue shade: Biden down 5-10%
50% blue shade: Biden down 10-15%
60% blue shade: Biden down 15-20%
70% blue shade: Biden down 20-25%
80% blue shade: Biden down 25-30%
90% blue shade: Biden down 30%+


It is approval ratings, and not favorability ratings. Favorability ratings are relevant when they are blatant  (as in states that are not close and usually do not get polled, like New York or Oklahoma) because the states rarely decide an election, but they always must defer to approval. Would I use a favorability rating for Illinois? Sure. Wisconsin? Absolutely not.

*an asterisk indicates that I have accepted a favorability rating.  New York State only.

[pbrower2a]

States for which I would most like to see approval polls (not favorability!) in order

1. Georgia (something new)
2. Arizona
3. Pennsylvania
4. Nevada
5. Texas
6. Maine
7. Minnesota
8. Ohio
9. Iowa
 

[pbrower2a]

TEXAS

(but a tiny margin)

TX - University of Texas/Texas Tribune/YouGov
February 12-18
1200 registered voters
MoE: 2.8%

Approve 45%
Disapprove 44%
Neither approve nor disapprove 9%
Don’t know 2%

Source

 

Fifteen states; two more make it one third if you count Dee Cee as a state for all practical purposes in the 2024 election.

Key:

30% red shade: Biden up 1-5%
40% red shade: Biden up 5-10%
50% red shade: Biden up 10-15%
60% red shade: Biden up 15-20%
70% red shade: Biden up 20-25%
80% red shade: Biden up 25-30%
90% red shade: Biden up 30%+

50% green shade: tie

30% blue shade: Biden down 1-5%
40% blue shade: Biden down 5-10%
50% blue shade: Biden down 10-15%
60% blue shade: Biden down 15-20%
70% blue shade: Biden down 20-25%
80% blue shade: Biden down 25-30%
90% blue shade: Biden down 30%+


It is approval ratings, and not favorability ratings. Favorability ratings are relevant when they are blatant  (as in states that are not close and usually do not get polled, like New York or Oklahoma) because the states rarely decide an election, but they always must defer to approval. Would I use a favorability rating for Illinois? Sure. Wisconsin? Absolutely not.

*an asterisk indicates that I have accepted a favorability rating.  New York State only.

[pbrower2a]

Didn’t UT-Tyler show Biden leading there? Or am I mixing up my 2020 polls?

UT Tyler is in the northeastern part of the state, about halfway between Dallas and Shreveport. Austin is slightly west of due south of Dallas.

The earlier poll was a favorability poll, which was not shown on the map.

[pbrower2a]

Nevada - WPA Intelligence/Las Vegas Review-Journal
February 26-March 1
500 likely voters
MoE: 4.4%

Approve 47%
Disapprove 40%
Not sure 12%

https://www.reviewjournal.com/news/politics-and-government/nevada/the-nevada-poll-nevadans-give-biden-sisolak-favorable-marks-2293284/

North Carolina - High Point University
February 12-26
854 adults
MoE: 3.7%

Approve 48%
Disapprove 37%
Don’t know/refused 15%

http://www.highpoint.edu/blog/2021/03/hpu-poll-presidential-approval-at-48-governor-approval-at-50-in-north-carolina/

Virginia - Roanoke College
February 14-27
596 adults
MoE: 4%

Approve 47%
Disapprove 30%
Mixed 8%
Refused 15%

https://www.roanoke.edu/documents/rcpoll/RCPoll%20Feb%202021%20Political%20topline.pdf

An eleven-point gap favoring approval makes more sense in North Carolina. Approval is now below 50%, but disapproval is under 40%. I expect more polls today and Wednesday. This one replaces an older poll. There are enough extant polls that some can be replaced, and there can be polls from states from which we have yet to see approval polls.

I expect the big double-digit approval gap in Georgia favoring President Biden to shrink markedly in its next poll.      

Sixteen states; one more makes it one third if you count Dee Cee as a state for all practical purposes in the 2024 election.

Key:

30% red shade: Biden up 1-5%
40% red shade: Biden up 5-10%
50% red shade: Biden up 10-15%
60% red shade: Biden up 15-20%
70% red shade: Biden up 20-25%
80% red shade: Biden up 25-30%
90% red shade: Biden up 30%+

50% green shade: tie

30% blue shade: Biden down 1-5%
40% blue shade: Biden down 5-10%
50% blue shade: Biden down 10-15%
60% blue shade: Biden down 15-20%
70% blue shade: Biden down 20-25%
80% blue shade: Biden down 25-30%
90% blue shade: Biden down 30%+


It is approval ratings, and not favorability ratings. Favorability ratings are relevant when they are blatant  (as in states that are not close and usually do not get polled, like New York or Oklahoma) because the states rarely decide an election, but they always must defer to approval. Would I use a favorability rating for Illinois? Sure. Wisconsin? Absolutely not.

*an asterisk indicates that I have accepted a favorability rating.  New York State only.

[pbrower2a]

I notice a pattern: although approval numbers in most states aren't high, disapproval numbers are low. This said, Biden practices so far seem pointed toward re-election if he wants it. So far he has done little controversial, something that will not be possible for now. Count also on people with Hard Right values on economics who define freedom as themselves getting their way no matter who pays a price (poor people, workers, pro-environment people) for the agenda of their choosing to start firing their political weapons as liberal politics tend to marginalize their power.   Think of the 1994, 1998, 2010, and 2014 midterms when the Economic Right find willing stooges to serve their interests and lavish those stooges with seemingly-unlimited funds. The Economic Right finds politics just another investment.