Biden approval ratings thread, 1.0

[pbrower2a]

yeah sorry I don't believe this lol

I'd like to see this in context with other polls.

[pbrower2a]

It's been a historic week. A red wave in 2022 looks a lot more likely now, unless the Democrats can turn this around, and fast. The longer this becomes baked into people's minds the harder it is to get Biden back into decently positive (+5-10) approval that he needs to stave off a beating in the House. And this isn't considering that the polling averages are still overstating his support by a few points, with some pollsters (like Hill/Harris, Morning Consult, and IBD (don't know what happened to them!)) skewing his averages significantly at times. It is sometimes counterbalanced by Rasmussen, but that's the only one that's consistently more right-leaning than the rest.

...or people forget, or cast blame on Republicans. The exit from Afghanistan was Trump's idea -- and deal. COVID-19 will still be killing Americans in large numbers (the death toll has reached the scale of the populations of Las Vegas or Detroit -- and I am using Census numbers for 2020 now).

[pbrower2a]

A summary of the post-Afghanistan polling:

-13 points in Reuters/Ipsos net approval
-3 points in YouGov net approval
-11 in Ipsos net approval
-10 in AP/NORC net approval
-13 in NBC net approval
-16 in CBS net approval

That’s a pretty big hit to take in a few days. He could certainly get it back at some point, but we’re looking at neutral or slight negative approvals for the near future.

... but it is not out of range for a Biden victory in 2024 were this in February 2024. I do not predict the dynamics of polling results or the results of any polls. At most I have interpolated.  

Bad news happens. How leaders respond tests their competence.

[pbrower2a]

https://twitter.com/MULawPoll/status/1425507048243011584

First poll of Wisconsin from this source, according to my recollection,  since the 2020 election.



This was pbower2A Approvals in NC, Strong D, No More

Key:

30% red shade: Biden up 1-5%
40% red shade: Biden up 5-10%
50% red shade: Biden up 10-15%
60% red shade: Biden up 15-20%
70% red shade: Biden up 20-25%
80% red shade: Biden up 25-30%
90% red shade: Biden up 30%+

50% green shade: tie

30% blue shade: Biden down 1-5%
40% blue shade: Biden down 5-10%
50% blue shade: Biden down 10-15%
60% blue shade: Biden down 15-20%
70% blue shade: Biden down 20-25%
80% blue shade: Biden down 25-30%
90% blue shade: Biden down 30%+

So much for Cheri Beasley

But, but, but pbower2A Approval maps have D's leading in TX and FL and strong in NC

Well that's not the case in FL anymore, Biden has an unfavorable poll there

Don't attack me for obsolete data unless I stick with it. I do not  replace obsolete data before I see a poll that replaces obsolete data. Some of those glittering numbers for Biden are really old, and they come from long before the situation collapsed in Afghanistan.

Polling has been slow so far. Events will shake things up.

Key:

30% red shade: Biden up 1-5%
40% red shade: Biden up 5-10%
50% red shade: Biden up 10-15%
60% red shade: Biden up 15-20%
70% red shade: Biden up 20-25%
80% red shade: Biden up 25-30%
90% red shade: Biden up 30%+

50% green shade: tie

30% blue shade: Biden down 1-5%
40% blue shade: Biden down 5-10%
50% blue shade: Biden down 10-15%
60% blue shade: Biden down 15-20%
70% blue shade: Biden down 20-25%
80% blue shade: Biden down 25-30%
90% blue shade: Biden down 30%+

There are plenty of polling results that I no longer see relevant. If I am to look only at the two most recent statewide polls here, then Joe Biden will be a one-term President to be supplanted by someone more ruthless and competent than Donald Trump -- and even more reactionary. In such an America, the "Christian and Corporate State", the kindest thing that one could do for an infant is to arrange for an international adoption. The second-kindest would be an abortion.

Under the reactionary dream, America would become a pure plutocracy in which nothing matters except the power, indulgence, and gain of a tiny clique of economic elites (PIG -- as in "fascist pig" or the dominant characters in George Orwell's Animal Farm). Right-wing Republicans would win elections in many places that they normally lose, and they would have the ability to make America resemble Pinochet's Chile without the military shtick or a feudal order without the titles of nobility. 95% of the people would suffer for the 1% in return for promises of Pie in the Sky When You Die or would die horribly if they ever so much as grumbled about the new serfdom. So, liberals -- prepare to hate life so much that you will regret that you were even born!

Such is how that poll looks.

OK, so much for the hyperbole. All polls are snapshots. I'd like to see people on the Hard Right explain how they would have handled "Afghanistan" differently. I see shaky control by a seedy and shady regime in which regional commanders and local administrators pocketed most of the funds until the Taliban came and then told them that they could keep their numbered Swiss bank accounts if they surrendered. Afghanistan had plenty of quislings, and it would not have mattered who was President of the US at the time.

(In view of the Taliban and its reputation in its last stay in Afghanistan, I expect the Taliban to make the Viet Cong and the North Vietnamese Army look like gentlemen by contrast... and that's highly derogatory.

Oh, by the way: Republican pols aren;t doing all that well in Florida:

DeSantis 47-45
Scott 42-40
Rubio 49-30

If things are so great for Republicans, then DeSantis and Scott would be in a position to wipe out any Democrat. Rubio is just short of 50, but the others should be doing as well if Democrats are already wiped-out in Florida. 

Afghanistan  looks much like the Republic of Vietnam in similar time in March and April 1975, except that the Republic of Vietnam was much smaller. By 1976 most Americans no longer found Gerald Ford culpable for the Fall of Saigon... and Jimmy Carter did not press it in the election. Carter won the election  for reasons other than the fall of an indefensible ally with a rotten regime. Memories will be short. A collapse like that of the former government of Afghanistan does not happen unless the regime has been doing more with smoke and mirrors than with any real effectiveness.     

[pbrower2a]

Are we about to see a rally around the flag moment?

I'm not sure a traditional rally-'round-the-flag bump is even possible these days. It's inconceivable that a President could hit Bush-post-9/11 favorables.

Will today’s event increase Biden's ratings?

Watch for polls... and see. State polls have been scarce so far.

Taking a harsh strike against people who have murdered Americans in a terrorist attack is good for polling. It is also good in itself. "Mess with the Best -- die like the rest". Who the President is matters little.

[pbrower2a]

N.H.      
AUG 24-26, 2021
A/B
Saint Anselm College
1,855   RV
https://www.anselm.edu/sites/default/files/Documents/NHIOP/Polls/SACSurveyBook821.pdf


Job Approval:
Biden 44/55
Sununu 64/34
Shaheen 48/46
Hassan 44/48
Pappas 42/42
Kuster 43/42

Generic: R+3

New Hampshire Institute of Politics Executive Director Neil Levesque summarized the results, saying, “President Joe Biden’s job approval is collapsing in New Hampshire, putting Democratic incumbents in jeopardy. From an 8-point net approval in February, Biden’s job approval has inverted and now sits at 44%-55%, slightly worse than Donald Trump (45%-55%) in our pre-election poll last fall; 49% of voters strongly disapprove of his performance. 62% of voters now think that the country is on the wrong track, up from 55% in February, while only 28% think we’re on the right track. Most ominous for New Hampshire’s all-Democratic congressional delegation, the generic congressional ballot has swung to the Republicans (46%-43%) for the first time in the history of this poll.

“Biden’s job approval has steadily declined since he took office in response to several challenges. In this poll, he is bearing the responsibility for the current situation in Afghanistan (44%) more than his predecessors (Bush 27%, Trump 13%, and Obama 4%). This is energizing Republicans: 43% of voters are more inclined to vote for Republican candidates in next year’s election based on Biden’s handling of the situation, versus 14% that are more inclined to vote for Democratic candidates. This polarization is driving a voter intensity disparity benefitting Republicans: 97% of Republican voters disapprove of Biden’s performance versus only 85% of Democratic voters that approve. 92% of Republican voters would vote for a congressional candidate from their party today versus only 86% of Democratic voters who would vote for a candidate from their party.

Key:

30% red shade: Biden up 1-5%
40% red shade: Biden up 5-10%
50% red shade: Biden up 10-15%
60% red shade: Biden up 15-20%
70% red shade: Biden up 20-25%
80% red shade: Biden up 25-30%
90% red shade: Biden up 30%+

50% green shade: tie

30% blue shade: Biden down 1-5%
40% blue shade: Biden down 5-10%
50% blue shade: Biden down 10-15%
60% blue shade: Biden down 15-20%
70% blue shade: Biden down 20-25%
80% blue shade: Biden down 25-30%
90% blue shade: Biden down 30%+

[pbrower2a]

The Economist/YouGov weekly tracker, Aug. 28-31, 1500 adults including 1262 RV


Adults:

Approve 45 (-1)
Disapprove 44 (nc) (538 is incorrectly showing this as 40)

Strongly approve 21 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 36 (nc)


RV:

Approve 47 (-1)
Disapprove 46 (nc)

Strongly approve 24 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 40 (+2)

Considering that the withdrawal from Afghanistan does not allow a quick and easy spin, this isn't too bad for president Biden. 

[pbrower2a]

Pollsters like Rassy try to get low Approvals use phone polling instead of internet polling that's why Ds will win as long as there is VBM due to Early voting no matter how matter Voter Suppression laws Rs make



Newsom and soon TMac will lead all the VBM and Early vote

That's why we can win FL and OH too DeSantis, Rubio, and either Mandel or Vance look weak

I was an Election judge I know about Provisions Ballots too before the Pandemic when they locked us out of Judges and select the Judges now, everyone can't be a judge and collect 150 til further notice

NH and NV polling are off, with VBM they D's will win

Many people no longer have landlines. Those who still do tend to be on the Right side of the political spectrum.  Pollsters need recognize demographics.

If you wonder why the pollsters were wrong in 2020... it's because nobody knew how COVID-19 messed up the polling. 

[pbrower2a]

Some good news for Biden

Despite losing support in most polls, he maintains good ratings among whites with a degree

That matters in 2022, because there are barely any swing seats with WWC voters. The swing seats are nearly all in districts that are suburban and educated.

What could happen in 2022 is that Dems do dreadful on cow country- aka they underperform even their 2016 margins- but they maintain their majority because the suburbs don’t budge

The white vote in "corn and cow country" is shrinking, much of it because Americans are abandoning rural areas that have few jobs and in which corporate farmers are buying out the remaining family farms. The former small farmers are moving to the suburbs, and their kids are getting college educations which transform them from thinking like conservative small farmers into degreed professionals. That's part of the deal in selling out the family farm: your kids can become accountants, engineers, veterinarians, or even physicians and attorneys.

Eventually rural America will swing D because the growing population is heavily non-white, non-Anglo farm laborers who have no obvious stake in right-wing politics. Their kids are becoming citizens, and they are starting to vote. Dairies and slaughterhouses which offer industrial-style work and social conditions operate much like the industrial sweatshops that created a labor movement that turned the working class into (largely) liberal democrats. The kids value formal education, which is not favorable to Trump-like demagogues on the Right. 

[pbrower2a]

When’s morning consult come out?

https://twitter.com/cameron_easley/status/1435327750492106759

Thanks.

Underwater but still near 50. Not bad for followwing a bad event not of his doing.

[pbrower2a]

Two very old polls replaced, probably at the low point for the Biden Presidency. Afghanistan may be sinking in.

https://twitter.com/MonmouthPoll/status/1435634370002530306?s=19

California - YouGov (August 27-Sept 1)

LV:
56% approve
7% neither approve or disapprove
37% disapprove

https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/b1h1g2vgfh/recall_tabs.pdf

Key:

30% red shade: Biden up 1-5%
40% red shade: Biden up 5-10%
50% red shade: Biden up 10-15%
60% red shade: Biden up 15-20%
70% red shade: Biden up 20-25%
80% red shade: Biden up 25-30%
90% red shade: Biden up 30%+

50% green shade: tie

30% blue shade: Biden down 1-5%
40% blue shade: Biden down 5-10%
50% blue shade: Biden down 10-15%
60% blue shade: Biden down 15-20%
70% blue shade: Biden down 20-25%
80% blue shade: Biden down 25-30%
90% blue shade: Biden down 30%+

[pbrower2a]

Red field and Wilton strategies;

46% approve
36% disapprove

September 4-5

+10?

Gigantic number -- 14% -- of undecided. Americans are still sorting out the fall of Afghanistan.

Is President Biden culpable? If he had complete knowledge.

President Trump cut the deal, and President Biden had no means of getting a graceful exit.

 

[pbrower2a]

Michigan, PPP: 45% approval, 51% disapproval. Probably a low point.

Key:

30% red shade: Biden up 1-5%
40% red shade: Biden up 5-10%
50% red shade: Biden up 10-15%
60% red shade: Biden up 15-20%
70% red shade: Biden up 20-25%
80% red shade: Biden up 25-30%
90% red shade: Biden up 30%+

50% green shade: tie

30% blue shade: Biden down 1-5%
40% blue shade: Biden down 5-10%
50% blue shade: Biden down 10-15%
60% blue shade: Biden down 15-20%
70% blue shade: Biden down 20-25%
80% blue shade: Biden down 25-30%
90% blue shade: Biden down 30%+

[pbrower2a]

Effects of the Afghanistan withdrawal upon approval ratings of the President are apparently transitory. Other things, like COVID-19, will matter more. COVID-19 really is killing Americans in large numbers, and culpability obviously lies more heavily with GOP pols. 

[pbrower2a]

Biden 57/37 fav in NY per Siena

https://www.scribd.com/document/525193942/SNY0921-Crosstabs

...and Donald Quisling Trump at 33-61.

Because this is a favorability poll I am not going to put it on the map.

[pbrower2a]

Data for Progress just released a bunch of new state polls. Old, from 8/20-8/27, but also probably the low water mark for Biden since it was directly in the midst of the Afghanistan media hysteria.

August 20-27

Favorability
Washington: 57/42 (+15)
Oregon: 56/43 (+13)
Colorado: 52/46 (+6)
Pennsylvania: 50/49 (+1)
Georgia: 49/49 (=)
Wisconsin: 48/50 (-2)
Arizona: 48/51 (-3)
New Hampshire: 49/52 (-3)
Michigan: 47/51 (-4)
North Carolina: 46/51 (-5)
Montana: 37/63 (-26)
West Virginia: 33/62 (-29)

Job approval
Washington: 55/42 (+13)
Oregon: 55/44 (+11)
Colorado: 52/47 (+5)
Pennsylvania: 50/50 (=)
Arizona: 49/50 (-1)
Georgia: 48/50 (-2)
Michigan: 48/50 (-2)
New Hampshire: 49/51 (-2)
Wisconsin: 48/52 (-4)
North Carolina: 46/52 (-6)
Montana: 38/61 (-23)
West Virginia: 34/65 (-31)

https://www.dataforprogress.org/memos/voters-in-key-states-support-the-build-back-better-agenda

Close to the low point, and I suggest that we keep this in mind as other polls come in. No way is Biden up by a thread in Texas!

Americans will likely have their focus on infrastructure, voting rights, abortion rights -- and COVID-19.   

Key:

30% red shade: Biden up 1-5%
40% red shade: Biden up 5-10%
50% red shade: Biden up 10-15%
60% red shade: Biden up 15-20%
70% red shade: Biden up 20-25%
80% red shade: Biden up 25-30%
90% red shade: Biden up 30%+

white: tie

30% blue shade: Biden down 1-5%
40% blue shade: Biden down 5-10%
50% blue shade: Biden down 10-15%
60% blue shade: Biden down 15-20%
70% blue shade: Biden down 20-25%
80% blue shade: Biden down 25-30%
90% blue shade: Biden down 30%+

[pbrower2a]

Lol trash

Ipsos Core Political Data (weekly), Sep. 15-16, 1005 adults

Approve 44 (-3)
Disapprove 50 (+4)

All polls, especially those involving the consequences of an offensive but (for most Americans) a transitory event, go obsolete.  Just watch the next ones. It's thirteen and a half months before the midterm and over three years until the 2024 election. 

[pbrower2a]

I think there's an outside chance he can still recover. Some of the doomers are too pessimistic.

It's more than an outside chance. I've seen 20% edges disappear within a year. I remember analysis from early 2009 suggesting that Senator Blanche Lincoln (D-AR) would be re-elected. She ended up losing by about 17%, indicating that the political reality had changed greatly between early 2009 and the 2010 general election.

We do not know whether Joe Biden will be the nominee and if he is, who will be the opponent. Thee are just too many (to put the pitiable words of the late Donald Rumsfeld to use) "known unknowns and unknown unknowns" for anyone to say anything definitive about the 2024 election except its date.   

[pbrower2a]

Fox News; (9/12-9/15)

Approve; 50% (-3)
Disapprove; 49% (+3)

Not bad for President Biden under the circumstances.

[pbrower2a]

Texas, UT-Tyler for the Dallas Morning News:

An obsolete poll bites the dust. 40 approval 52 disapproval. Huge undecided.


https://www.dallasnews.com/news/politics/2021/09/19/abbotts-right-turn-deflates-gop-rivals-but-opens-door-for-orourke-mcconaughey-newsut-tyler-poll/

Key:

30% red shade: Biden up 1-5%
40% red shade: Biden up 5-10%
50% red shade: Biden up 10-15%
60% red shade: Biden up 15-20%
70% red shade: Biden up 20-25%
80% red shade: Biden up 25-30%
90% red shade: Biden up 30%+

white: tie

30% blue shade: Biden down 1-5%
40% blue shade: Biden down 5-10%
50% blue shade: Biden down 10-15%
60% blue shade: Biden down 15-20%
70% blue shade: Biden down 20-25%
80% blue shade: Biden down 25-30%
90% blue shade: Biden down 30%+

[pbrower2a]

Virginia: PPP, Sep. 17-18, 875 voters

Approve 47
Disapprove 46

In the governor's race, McAuliffe (D) leads Youngkin (R) 45-42.

Barely underwater to barely over for the President... so don't make more of this poll than is justified. The political damage from the US departure from Afghanistan seems to be abating. This said, the hemorrhaging seems to have stopped.

Key:

30% red shade: Biden up 1-5%
40% red shade: Biden up 5-10%
50% red shade: Biden up 10-15%
60% red shade: Biden up 15-20%
70% red shade: Biden up 20-25%
80% red shade: Biden up 25-30%
90% red shade: Biden up 30%+

white: tie

30% blue shade: Biden down 1-5%
40% blue shade: Biden down 5-10%
50% blue shade: Biden down 10-15%
60% blue shade: Biden down 15-20%
70% blue shade: Biden down 20-25%
80% blue shade: Biden down 25-30%
90% blue shade: Biden down 30%+

[pbrower2a]

Virginia: PPP, Sep. 17-18, 875 voters

Approve 47
Disapprove 46

In the governor's race, McAuliffe (D) leads Youngkin (R) 45-42.

Not a big crossover from 2020 with Youngkin not really winning over Biden supporters. I think this will be over 6% in the end.

Probably. Incumbents typically gain about 6% from governing or legislating to campaigning.    

[pbrower2a]

Nevada,

Biden favorability 48, unfavorability 49. I can't put that on the map. Neither will I show the results of an excellent-good-fair-poor poll of job approval.

https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/independent-poll-sisolak-cortez-masto-hold-slim-leads-over-likely-gop-opponents

Key:

30% red shade: Biden up 1-5%
40% red shade: Biden up 5-10%
50% red shade: Biden up 10-15%
60% red shade: Biden up 15-20%
70% red shade: Biden up 20-25%
80% red shade: Biden up 25-30%
90% red shade: Biden up 30%+

white: tie

30% blue shade: Biden down 1-5%
40% blue shade: Biden down 5-10%
50% blue shade: Biden down 10-15%
60% blue shade: Biden down 15-20%
70% blue shade: Biden down 20-25%
80% blue shade: Biden down 25-30%
90% blue shade: Biden down 30%+

[pbrower2a]

President Biden isn't campaigning. Once he does, he stands to pick up at least 5% support from where he is at the time. This is not a great time for the GOP. The most serious federal trials have yet to begin, and I expect some people to get very long prison terms. Little good happens for a defendant in a federal criminal trial that goes before a jury.

Heck, even the Michigan plot (which is closer to federal trials for federal offenses, including a plot of interstate kidnapping) has one conviction, that involving a plea bargain.  If I were a Michigan journalist I would do anything to cover those cases.

There is no indication that the Biden administration is in any way soft on crime. Obama certainly wasn't!

[pbrower2a]

It's a 304 map anyways, but the H is troublesome and VA Gov race if there is a Govt Shutdown in the middle of voting in VA, TMac should bank early voting but same day voting is going to Youngkin

Just because we lose VA Gov doesn't mean that much for 2024 since Kaine is on the ballot and should win eadily

Warnock is in the same position TMac in if VR isn't passed

I expect Democrats to push the enhancement of voting rights at the expense of almost everything else because the GOP will steadily gut voting rights.