What does your 2024 map look like right now?

[pbrower2a]

Georgia is extremely 'flippy'.

Trump won Florida with some last-minute Commie-baiting in Florida directed at Cuban-Americans and Venezuelan-Americans, accusing anyone of not being fervent as he in supporting pure plutocracy of being 'radical Left'. That might not work next time.

Things have to go well enough (or at least the bad stuff must not emerge until a second term) for an incumbent President to win re-election. Obviously the chaos and misfortune that happened under Trump ensures defeat. Trump made it close by playing up fear (crime, job losses, terrorism, left-wing radicals) in an effort to convince voters that even if they despised him and his agenda that they must vote for him if they know what is good for him. Enough people fell for that to make it close.

Whether Biden ends up with 270 or 413 electoral votes, he is still President.

A flip map from 2016 to 2020 is likely to show no more than six states and one often wayward district (Nebraska-2) flipping. That is more than 1996 (five), 2004 (three), and 2012 (two and one district) going from one side to the other in re-election bids.  Big swings in states involve open-seat elections.   

[pbrower2a]

Heck, we don't have the results for 2020 decided yet!

[pbrower2a]

Figuring...

1. Georgia goes to Biden and North Carolina goes to Trump in 2020

2. with an incumbent running for re-election, no more than five states flip for or against the incumbent, total

3. No state flips more than 6% when one of the candidates is repeated barring a catastrophic failure as President (ironically Trump was a catastrophic failure, but he did far better than most expected)

TX -- imaginable flip R to D
FL -- possible flip R to D
NC --possible flip R to D
GA -- possible flip D to R
AZ -- possible flip D to R
WI -- possible flip D to R
PA -- possible flip D to R
MI -- possible flip D to R
NV -- possible flip D to R

Outside this range? Ohio T +8.16, Iowa T +8.22, Minnesota B +7.13, New Hampshire B +7.37, Maine at-large B +8.70. Anything else? The DEA wants to find your source, because everything else is more than 10% away from even. (I have nothing on ME-02 and NE-02 yet).

The really-scary thing is that we have such extreme interstate polarization. Maybe this reflects Donald Trump, and I am guessing that he will not run for re-election... or he will be defeated in the Republican primaries.

     
 

[pbrower2a]

[/quote]

Minimal change, as only four states change sides in an election involving an incumbent President.  It's typically three to five unless

(1) the incumbent is a catastrophic failure like Hoover in 1932 or Carter in 1980, or
(2) the incumbent is able to portray the opposing nominee as an unconventional and dangerous radical.

Five states and NE-02 changed hands between 2016 and 2020, and Trump had won so barely in 2016 that he could afford to lose only two.

I don't see Joe Biden as a disaster, and the GOP is already a far-right, semi-fascist Party to which Americans are well accustomed. Pence is more of the same that most Americans see in the GOP. Four states change hands, but Biden wins much as he did in 2020 in 2024.

The Red Scare rhetoric will fail in Florida the next time as it will be easy for Biden to distinguish himself from Raul Castro or Nicolas Maduro. Wisconsin is demographically similar to Iowa and goes with Iowa.     

[pbrower2a]

Minimal change, as only four states change sides in an election involving an incumbent President.  It's typically three to five unless

(1) the incumbent is a catastrophic failure like Hoover in 1932 or Carter in 1980, or
(2) the incumbent is able to portray the opposing nominee as an unconventional and dangerous radical.

Five states and NE-02 changed hands between 2016 and 2020, and Trump had won so barely in 2016 that he could afford to lose only two.

I don't see Joe Biden as a disaster, and the GOP is already a far-right, semi-fascist Party to which Americans are well accustomed. Pence is more of the same that most Americans see in the GOP. Four states change hands, but Biden wins much as he did in 2020 in 2024.

The Red Scare rhetoric will fail in Florida the next time as it will be easy for Biden to distinguish himself from Raul Castro or Nicolas Maduro. Wisconsin is demographically similar to Iowa and goes with Iowa.     

Lol, esp at Florida

At least I see Wisconsin trending R and Georgia in 2020 as an anomaly.  I don't see Biden or Harris doing anything that suggests an imitation of Castroite or 'Bolivarian' socialism, and or even showing solidarity with dictatorial "red" regimes (as we used to use the word "red", as in Marxist-Leninist" in Cuba or Venezuela.