Trump approval ratings thread 1.5

[pbrower2a]

It was about 1% R a few years ago; PPP tried to be cautious and avoid excessive optimism.

[pbrower2a]

Biden leads Trump 48/46
Warren and Sanders tied with Trump

http://innovationohio.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/OhioResults.pdf

The poll was done on the behalf of a Ohio progressive group who wants to promote the idea that Ohio is stil very winnable for democrats and that they should contest it heavily next year.

NB: PPP doesn’t have a good track record in the state, last year they had DeWine down -7 against Cordray
https://www.scribd.com/document/378736368/OH-Gov-PPP-for-Ohio-Democratic-Party-April-2018-May-2018

Ohio went for Trump by high single digits in a close race in 2016. In a close race in the popular vote nationwide, Trump wins Ohio decisively. Note that Trump is up 1% in this poll in approval, arguably the first time this has happened. Are Trump supporters rallying behind their leader, or are conservative Ohioans starting to see Donald Trump as the victim of a witch-hunt by the media and the "Deep State"?

This said, Ohio is not going to decide the 2020 Presidential election. In a nationwide election with about a 5% edge to the Democratic nominee, Ohio will be close. The Democrat will need an edge of at least 3% nationwide because some deep-blue (Atlas red) States, two of them gigantic in electoral votes (California and New York) could easily vote nearly 70-30 against Trump. See also Connecticut, Illinois, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, and Washington. Such, and some small states that will do much the same, implies that in an even race for the President that the rest of the United States goes about 57-43, which means that Trump wins all the swing states except Colorado and Virginia.

Such is the mathematical reality of an even election in the popular vote. If Ohio goes against Trump, then the Democrat is in the range of 355-375 electoral votes.  

UtahPolicy.com and Y2 Analytics:

28% of Utah voters say they “strongly” approve
17% “somewhat” approve
8% “somewhat” disapprove
47% “strongly” disapprove

Source

When was the last time that Utah voters had a 55% disapproval for a Republican President? Probably for Hoover as the economy was in a tailspin, but there was no polling back in those days. Romney beat Obama handily in 2012 in Utah, but at this point in a hypothetical contest between Obama and Trump, Obama would win Utah because he is far closer to Mormon values in family life, character, and foreign policy. Mormons (LDS) take family values seriously, and Utah isn't exactly a rube state. Mormons also take religious freedom seriously because such fosters Mormon missionary efforts, and someone who takes swipes at non-Christian religions can easily turn against Mormons.

I can't speak for the LDS hierarchy, but I would not be shocked if it turned against Trump. This could be one time, one in which Mormons demonstrate that the GOP cannot take their vote for granted.  

Non-Mormons in Utah vote much like Californians, but... I suspect that Mormons are getting sick of an arrogant rogue as President. Note well: Trump actually got a smaller share of the Utah vote in 2012 than did Goldwater in 1964. Trump disapproval at 55% with 47% disapproval means that Trump could lose, especially if a Third-Party nominee takes away much of the conservative-leaning vote. The 45-55 split in approval and disapproval may be an exaggeration, but it is hard to explain it away. Offend the sensibilities of the majority of the people in that political subdivision... and lose it!

Restoring a oll that I dropped:

Trump approval:

40% or less or disapproval over 52%
41-44% or disapproval over 50%
45-49% and negative

tie (white)

45-49% and positive
50-54%
55% or higher

[pbrower2a]

Biden leads Trump 48/46
Warren and Sanders tied with Trump

http://innovationohio.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/OhioResults.pdf

The poll was done on the behalf of a Ohio progressive group who wants to promote the idea that Ohio is still very winnable for democrats and that they should contest it heavily next year.

NB: PPP doesn’t have a good track record in the state, last year they had DeWine down -7 against Cordray
https://www.scribd.com/document/378736368/OH-Gov-PPP-for-Ohio-Democratic-Party-April-2018-May-2018

Ohio went for Trump by high single digits in a close race in 2016. In a close race in the popular vote nationwide, Trump wins Ohio decisively. Note that Trump is up 1% in this poll in approval, arguably the first time this has happened. Are Trump supporters rallying behind their leader, or are conservative Ohioans starting to see Donald Trump as the victim of a witch-hunt by the media and the "Deep State"?

This said, Ohio is not going to decide the 2020 Presidential election. In a nationwide election with about a 5% edge to the Democratic nominee, Ohio will be close. The Democrat will need an edge of at least 3% nationwide because some deep-blue (Atlas red) States, two of them gigantic in electoral votes (California and New York) could easily vote nearly 70-30 against Trump. See also Connecticut, Illinois, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, and Washington. Such, and some small states that will do much the same, implies that in an even race for the President that the rest of the United States goes about 57-43, which means that Trump wins all the swing states except Colorado and Virginia.

Such is the mathematical reality of an even election in the popular vote. If Ohio goes against Trump, then the Democrat is in the range of 355-375 electoral votes.  

UtahPolicy.com and Y2 Analytics:

28% of Utah voters say they “strongly” approve
17% “somewhat” approve
8% “somewhat” disapprove
47% “strongly” disapprove

Source

When was the last time that Utah voters had a 55% disapproval for a Republican President? Probably for Hoover as the economy was in a tailspin, but there was no polling back in those days. Romney beat Obama handily in 2012 in Utah, but at this point in a hypothetical contest between Obama and Trump, Obama would win Utah because he is far closer to Mormon values in family life, character, and foreign policy. Mormons (LDS) take family values seriously, and Utah isn't exactly a rube state. Mormons also take religious freedom seriously because such fosters Mormon missionary efforts, and someone who takes swipes at non-Christian religions can easily turn against Mormons.

I can't speak for the LDS hierarchy, but I would not be shocked if it turned against Trump. This could be one time, one in which Mormons demonstrate that the GOP cannot take their vote for granted.  

Non-Mormons in Utah vote much like Californians, but... I suspect that Mormons are getting sick of an arrogant rogue as President. Note well: Trump actually got a smaller share of the Utah vote in 2012 than did Goldwater in 1964. Trump disapproval at 55% with 47% disapproval means that Trump could lose, especially if a Third-Party nominee takes away much of the conservative-leaning vote. The 45-55 split in approval and disapproval may be an exaggeration, but it is hard to explain it away. Offend the sensibilities of the majority of the people in that political subdivision... and lose it!

Ohio: Climate Nexus, Oct. 1-7, 1112 RV

Approve 45
Disapprove 53

Strongly approve 23
Strongly disapprove 41

Approve of impeachment inquiry?

Yes 52
No 48

Biden 53, Trump 47
Sanders 52, Trump 48
Warren 51, Trump 49
Harris 50, Trump 50
Buttigieg 50, Trump 50

After a paucity of polls from Ohio we get two in one day. Such requires averaging. That is the first time that I have had to average two results from the same state.

Approve 46.5, disapprove 50

I dislike decimals, but here I show an average of two polls. Trump cannot lose Ohio and win the re-election; if he is losing Ohio he is also losing Michigan and Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin is frosting on the cake.

Trump approval:

40% or less or disapproval over 52%
41-44% or disapproval over 50%
45-49% and negative

tie (white)

45-49% and positive
50-54%
55% or higher

[pbrower2a]

Maine, PPP:

Trump approval 42-54 (does not change the map, so I give you no mew map. No distinction between ME-01 and ME-02 is made.

Impeach or not impeach -- 53-44 for.

Senator Susan Collins 35 approve 50 disapprove (bad spot to be in a year before the election, and this is a big fall from earlier polls).

https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/PPP_Release_ME_101519.pdf

[pbrower2a]

Maine, PPP:

Trump approval 42-54 (does not change the map, so I give you no mew map. No distinction between ME-01 and ME-02 is made.

Impeach or not impeach -- 53-44 for.

Senator Susan Collins 35 approve 50 disapprove (bad spot to be in a year before the election, and this is a big fall from earlier polls).

https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/PPP_Release_ME_101519.pdf

The only way that Collins wins back support from moderates in this state is to actually take a moderate that position when it counted. It would have probably saved her career to vote Nay on Kavanaugh. That would be have been the best long run thing and Trump would have still been able to get the seat eventually.

Yes -- with someone not so much a travesty. Kavanaugh was proof that Republicans could stick it to Democrats. There had better be more to any political, business, or personal decision than to "stick it to" someone.

[pbrower2a]

Iowa, Emerson:

President Trump holds a 47% disapproval and a 44% approval rating in Iowa while the Republican Governor Kim Reynolds is at 39% approval and 35% disapproval. Broken down, the President has a 52% disapproval among women, with a 39% approval, as compared to a 42% disapproval among men, with a 51% approval. A plurality of voters - 48 % - oppose impeachment with 42% supporting impeachment (n=829, +/- 3.3%).  


President Trump holds a 47% disapproval and a 44% approval rating in Iowa while the Republican Governor Kim Reynolds is at 39% approval and 35% disapproval. Broken down, the President has a 52% disapproval among women, with a 39% approval, as compared to a 42% disapproval among men, with a 51% approval. A plurality of voters - 48 % - oppose impeachment with 42% supporting impeachment (n=829, +/- 3.3%).

https://emersonpolling.reportablenews.com/pr/iowa-2020-dead-heat-with-biden-and-warren-mayor-pete-continues-to-build-and-sanders-slides

Trump approval:

40% or less or disapproval over 52%
41-44% or disapproval over 50%
45-49% and negative

tie (white)

45-49% and positive
50-54%
55% or higher

[pbrower2a]

So much for any idea that Trump has picked up credibility in Minnesota that will help him win the state. as if the 2018 midterm elections weren't enough to convince us.

[pbrower2a]

It's not that white people support Trump: it's that dumb white people support him!

[pbrower2a]

The sample is a bit old, but this poll was just published:

Public Religion Research Institute American Values Survey, Aug. 22-Sep. 15, 957 adults

Trump approval (change from Oct. 2018):

Approve 39 (-2)
Disapprove 60 (+2)

Strongly approve 19 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 44 (+2)


Trump favorability (change from April):

Very favorable 15 (-6)
Mostly favorable 20 (-3)
Mostly unfavorable 16 (-2)
Very unfavorable 48 (+14)

Net: favorable 35 (-9), unfavorable 64 (+12)

 

60% disapproval is in the zone in which the incumbent President loses about the same as did Hoover in 1932 and Carter in 1980.

[pbrower2a]

UNF - Florida

Paywall: https://t.co/8D988rOM8R

Approve - 45%
Disapprove - 53%

Poll has a slight GOP lean by party split according to this reporter.

https://twitter.com/MarcACaputo/status/1186605661716697088

Ohio: Climate Nexus, Oct. 1-7, 1112 RV

Approve 45
Disapprove 53

Strongly approve 23
Strongly disapprove 41

Approve of impeachment inquiry?

Yes 52
No 48

Biden 53, Trump 47
Sanders 52, Trump 48
Warren 51, Trump 49
Harris 50, Trump 50
Buttigieg 50, Trump 50

This is Florida, which swings rather little but tends to go with the winner by a narrow margin. A 53-47 split of the popular vote in Florida suggests about a 55-45 split nationwide but is also consistent with about a 60-40 split against the President. 55-45 suggests at the least 375 electoral votes for the Democrat, which is about what Clinton got when Perot split the conservative side of the political spectrum.  

Trump is not winning the Electoral College without Florida, and my recent assessments that the margin between the most likely results for the 2020 Presidential election is Texas, which has 38 electoral votes and straddles 400 for a Democrat, as usual.

Trump approval:

40% or less or disapproval over 52%
41-44% or disapproval over 50%
45-49% and negative

tie (white)

45-49% and positive
50-54%
55% or higher

[pbrower2a]

If Trump is really around 60% disapproval that removes the shy Trump voter effect. He will lose easily.  Let's hope this trend holds.

Where does the Shy Trump effect take hold, you think?

 People who approve of Trump and people who will vote Trump are different numbers, I'm not sure what the percentage difference is to be honest.

People who disapprove of Trump are not going to vote for him. At this point, 60% disapproval means that Trump has lost some support from people on the Right -- people who might end up voting for a Third Party or independent alternative to Trump.

[pbrower2a]

Mississippi-Mason Dixon:

Approve 54%
Disapprove 42%

Source

A state rarely polled chimes in. Mississippi, long the most backward state in America, is backward in its political life... but note that Trump approval is under 55%. Mississippi will be one of the best states for Trump in 2020. This tepid level of approval says much.  

Trump approval:

40% or less or disapproval over 52%
41-44% or disapproval over 50%
45-49% and negative

tie (white)

45-49% and positive
50-54%
55% or higher

[pbrower2a]

Impeachment is definitely firing up the base and creating some sympathy, though after today's shenanigans at the hearing I doubt it will last.

At this point it is safe to assume that the rational adults have largely abandoned the President. What remains are the fanatical and the crazy. The defense of this President has collapsed into farce. The end is nigh. 

[pbrower2a]

Two polls in which I give no credence are from Montana and Wyoming.  Get this -- 40 likely voters (MT) and 14 (WY).

I'm not showing those on the map.

[pbrower2a]

Two polls in which I give no credence are from Montana and Wyoming.  Get this -- 40 likely voters (MT) and 14 (WY).

I'm notshowing those on the map.

I don't know which is worse - that Montana State published those polls, or that 538 is including them in their poll database.

Even if they are accurate they are so only by chance. Montana is far too diverse for such a small sample.

[pbrower2a]

If Trump pulls within 2% of his Democratic rival down from today's 10% gap, it means that most of the Trump '16 voters came home and more. It would probably be logical to assume that any close election favors him in the Electoral College and more pertinently, Presidents who retain their coalitions often get re-elected.

Carter and Bush lost huge swaths of their people from '76 and '88 and lost. W retained most of his 2000 voters and won re-election, as did Obama 2012 (going from 53% to 51%).

...and if cats had wings they would fly.

[pbrower2a]

If Trump pulls within 2% of his Democratic rival down from today's 10% gap, it means that most of the Trump '16 voters came home and more. It would probably be logical to assume that any close election favors him in the Electoral College and more pertinently, Presidents who retain their coalitions often get re-elected.

Carter and Bush lost huge swaths of their people from '76 and '88 and lost. W retained most of his 2000 voters and won re-election, as did Obama 2012 (going from 53% to 51%).

...and if cats had wings they would fly.

You know, if a Republican wins next November you are going to have massive egg on your face.

This "Republicans can't win" meme is silly.  Republicans do win - a lot.

A Republican win of the Electoral College would indicate only one thing -- that much has changed that nobody can now foresee.

Some of my analysis from two months ago:

1. No administration has generated so many jailbirds so quickly. Obama -- none.
2. This may depend on how one sees things. Mueller testimony is what is in the statement, and Democrats are willing to make broader interpretations. The legal definitions of statutory offenses are not to be toyed with.
3. The advantages of incumbency are for those who handle it well.
4. Good economy? People are taking it for granted, and it has gotten shaky. The inverted yield curve and market volatility may contradict you.
5. I try to keep my "Trump is awful" opinion out of analysis. The polls suggest big trouble for him that the three last Presidents did not have. He is way behind Clinton, Dubya, and Obama at the same analogous time -- consistently.

He is not in the range of easily winning the states that he must win. If a Presidential election is basically fifty gubernatorial or Senate elections, five House elections (three districts in Nebraska and two in Maine), and one mayoral election (DC, which has neither a Governor nor a Senator but does have an elected mayor), Trump is way behind where he needs to be at the start of an electoral season. To have a 50% chance of win a state (Nate Silver, the Myth of 50%), an incumbent needs to have a start with a 43.5% share of the electoral support on the assumption that he will get the other 6.5% share in a binary election through a competent and spirited campaign. The chance of winning rises quickly to near unity with numbers above 43.5% and drops quickly to near zero with numbers below 43.5%. Trump won in 2016, so I will grant him that. Of course, most Presidential nominees are current or former Governors or Senators.

Not one vote from 2016 will be cast in 2020.  It will all be new votes.

So what would a Trump win be like? 2016 was close -- but Trump has not kept his close losses close. He is flipping nothing from Hillary Clinton, and he must avoid losing Florida and anything, or any combination of  of Michigan, Pennsylvania and anything. Approval numbers for this President are abysmal.  

This is before the disclosure of the directive to divert Air Force jets to a Trump resort to refuel their and disgorge airmen to stay at a Trump resort for lack of alternatives, before the revelation that the President sought dirt on the son of what was then the most likely challenge to his Presidency, and before the cowardly abandonment of the Kurds in Syria. The first two are impeachable, and the third is even more objectionable. This President has offended federal law enforcement, the Armed Services, and the CIA... contrast Barack Obama, who might not have been the first choice of those three legs of national security but in practice did nothing objectionable.

Impeachment hearings are nigh. Although in my pessimism about the GOP I expect the Senate to not convict and remove him, the electorate can exercise its own scheduled impeachment of him a little more than a year from now.  Among single-issue voters are those who have national security as a focus, and they usually vote for Republicans. Trump may have lost a big chunk of this vote. Note also that Americans are getting to know this President a little more each day unless they choose to shut him out. Those who have already shut him out have given up on him.  The Trump administration is chaotic in ways that we never saw in Jimmy Carter, who had few personal vices as President. Add to this, Americans are hostile to corruption in political life. Politicians in supposedly safe seats can lose even in wave elections favoring their Party.

But even without the corruption, chaos, and overall incompetence one factor intervenes. The bulk of new voters is coming from the Millennial Generation. Figuring charitably that people typically have about sixty years as voters,  about 1.6% of the electorate drops out every year, mostly by dropping dead or going senile. Such involves largely the older half of the electorate, typically between the ages of 55 and 85. If voters between ages 55 and 85 have been voting about 55-45 R, voters under 40 have been voting about 65-35 D nationwide.  So about 6.4% of the electorate gets replaced by newer voters largely under 40 every year, which means about a 2.5% shift of the electorate from R to D. If you wish to see some evidence of such a change, then look to the contrast between the 2014 and 2018 midterm election. The Tea Party voters, had they not died off or gone senile, still voted in 2018... but America also got a huge infusion of younger voters from 2014. To be sure, the 2018 midterm election may also have been a referendum for many purposes on the Trump Presidency, with voters taking it out on Trump.

Maybe something will happen that rescues President Trump and the GOP from what looks like another wave-like defeat, this one costing the Republicans the Senate. The biggest question with the Senate will be whether it votes to convict and remove the President. If it chooses to not do so, then such will not look good for incumbent Republican Senators, especially if the vote to not convict and remove the President comes as some procedural ruse. As James Randi puts it, extraordinary claims require extraordinary proof. I have seen one Presidency fail catastrophically in my lifetime due to the moral inadequacy of the President and another fall for chaotic bungling; Trump is far more immoral than Richard Nixon, and is far more chaotic than that of Jimmy Carter. At this point the null hypothesis is that Donald Trump has mostly done things that preclude re-election and is unlikely to do something to save his spot as President.    

[pbrower2a]

Morning Consult, Oct. 29-30, 1996 RV (prior poll Oct. 25-28)

Approve 40 (-3)
Disapprove 56 (+2)

Strongly approve 22 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 43 (nc)

This is not their regular tracker for Politico, and it doesn't have the usual questions about 2020, GCB, etc.

Approval and disapproval for President Trump seems to be steady. Identity and core values seem to shape politics more than do events in the news. 

[pbrower2a]

Franklin and Marshall University, Pennsylvania. Registered voters, late October. Read the crosstabs for yourself:

https://www.fandm.edu/uploads/files/93374337988676509-f-m-poll-release-october-2019.pdf

21-71 approval/disapproval on the attempt to extract politically-damaging material against members of an opponent's family from the President of Ukraine.  

Only 37% of Pennsylvania voters think that Donald Trump deserves re-election, and 59% believe otherwise. Of those 59% who think that he does not deserve re-election, 85% will vote for any Democrat against him. That gives Trump an absolute ceiling of 48% as a share of the vote. The Democrat will get 52% at the least under the most unfavorable circumstances that anyone can reasonably expect.

This is an excellent-good-fair-poll, so I do not treat it as a true approval poll. But with the "poor" level (which I can interpret as :strong disapproval" at 54%, there can be no question that Pennsylvania will not go for Trump a year from mow. "Only fair" seems ambiguous to some extent because "fair" has some positive connotations. Trump can lose this state by double digits. Even giving Trump 6% of "fair", I would see approval around 42-57. That is deep red on the map no matter how one interprets this poll.

Even worse for Trump -- new voters of 2020 will be registering to vote, and they are likely to lean decidedly D. Under 35 is only 16% of this poll.

I saw Pennsylvania as "strong D" before this poll, and it is still "strong D". Trump is not going to win a state in which his disapproval is 55% or so a year before the election.  Trump is not going to get his act together and clear out the chaos and corruption.

Here is a state polled rarely, and the result should be no surprise. It is a Democratic internal, but any hope that Trump has of winning this state is so slight that is absurd as the idea that the Detroit Tigers have a reasonable chance of appearing in the World Series in the next five years.

(Washington, PPP)

The poll was conducted by Public Policy Polling for the Northwest Progressive Institute, and has a margin of error of +/- 3.3% at the 95% confidence level.

Here’s our job performance question and responses:

QUESTION: Do you approve or disapprove of President Donald Trump’s job performance?

ANSWERS:

Disapprove: 61%
Approve: 36%
Not sure: 4%
Note that percentages do not add to one hundred due to rounding.

wprogressive.org/weblog/2019/10/washingtonians-overwhelmingly-support-impeaching-donald-trump-npi-poll-finds.html

(Washington state goes to a Republican in about a 400-EV victory for the Republican).

And for the state that straddles 400 electoral votes for a Democratic nominee for President:

Texas: UT/Texas Tribune, Oct. 18-27, 1200 RV

Approve 47
Disapprove 48

Are congressional impeachment investigations of President Trump justified?

Yes 46
No 42

Do President Trump's actions merit early removal from office?

Yes 43
No 44

Restoring a poll that I dropped from the middle of October, Iowa -- Trump was underwater with both numbers under 50.

If Texas is in doubt for the 2020 election, then Democratic chances for winning the Presidency are very, very good. This poll replaces an old one that I did not fully believe. Essentially it is a tie, but any lead for either a Democrat or a Republican gets some hue.



Trump approval:

40% or less or disapproval over 52%
41-44% or disapproval over 50%
45-49% and negative

tie (white)

45-49% and positive
50-54%
55% or higher

[pbrower2a]

Trump's loss of the popular vote did a lot to erode his political legitimacy, which is why the popular vote matters. Yes, the Electoral College rightfully elected him. But it doesn't preclude that the popular vote has an important role to confer on the President.

The Trump disaster of a Presidency starts with that 2.8 million popular vote loss. As long as his opposition knows that they are more popular than him and have a reservoir of opposition to him to draw upon that's larger than his supporters, Trump's Presidency will continue to be a raging dumpster fire.

That's just reality.

 It also didn't help that Trump then ran with a baseless conspiracy that he actually won the popular vote because 3 million non-citizens or "illegals" as he calls them voted.

But we just gloss over that because Trump.

It's nearly impossible to mentally retain all the horrible things he has said or done.

He obviously can win with nearly a 3 million loss in the popular vote. He did. An even shift of 1% of the popular vote will send him down to defeat, though.  Obviously it will not be an even swing; such never happens. Democrats may have maxed out in some states (CA, HI, MD, MA, NY, RI, and VT).

I am not going to say how the impeachment affects the 2020 vote.

[pbrower2a]

Kaiser Family Foundation "Blue Wall Voices" project, Sep. 23-Oct. 15, 3222 RV in four states.


Michigan (n=767):

Approve 41 (strongly 24)
Disapprove 58 (strongly 49)


Minnesota (n=958):

Approve 42 (strongly 24)
Disapprove 58 (strongly 48)


Pennsylvania (n=752):

Approve 39 (strongly 26)
Disapprove 61 (strongly 51)


Wisconsin (n=745):

Approve 42 (strongly 26)
Disapprove 57 (strongly 49)


Lots of good issue questions in this poll too.

Trump re-election bid, 2020: dead in the water with a swarm of tiger sharks.

If Texas is in doubt for the 2020 election, then Democratic chances for winning the Presidency are very, very good. This poll replaces an old one that I did not fully believe. Essentially it is a tie, but any lead for either a Democrat or a Republican gets some hue.



Trump approval:

40% or less or disapproval over 52%
41-44% or disapproval over 50%
45-49% and negative

tie (white)

45-49% and positive
50-54%
55% or higher



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