Trump approval ratings thread 1.5

[pbrower2a]

TEXAS LYCEUM POLL:

How well do you think Donald Trump is handling his job as president?  Is he doing a very good job, somewhat good job, somewhat poor job, or very poor job?
 
1. Very good job. 24%
2. Somewhat good job. 24%
3. Somewhat poor job. 17%
4. Very poor job. 34%
5. DON’T KNOW / REFUSED / NA    0%

Combined approval: 48%
Combined disapproval: 52%

Source

 

Much more credible to me than the last poll that I saw of Texas.
 

Trump approval:

40% or less or disapproval over 52%
41-44% or disapproval over 50%
45-49% and negative


Note: these are colored green to the same shade if I believe that an independent or third-party nominee has a chance to win the state, but a Democrat has no meaningful chance. That is Utah for now.

tie (white)
45-49% and positive
50-54%
55% or higher

[pbrower2a]

Gallup, Aug. 15-30, 1500 adults (prior poll Aug. 1-14)

Approve 39 (-2)
Disapprove 57 (+3)

This is the worst Gallup result for Trump since their early March poll, which had the same numbers.

He cannot win with numbers like those. 

[pbrower2a]

Gallup, Aug. 15-30, 1500 adults (prior poll Aug. 1-14)

Approve 39 (-2)
Disapprove 57 (+3)

This is the worst Gallup result for Trump since their early March poll, which had the same numbers.

He cannot win with numbers like those. 

His favorable rating was 21 points underwater on election day 2016.

Donald Trump was not so much a known quantity in 2016 as he is now. People who have since come to despise him are not going to vote for him in a free and fair election.

Disapproval means giving up.   

[pbrower2a]

ABC News/Washington Post, Sep. 2-5, 1003 adults including 877 RV (change from early July)

Adults:

Approve 38 (-6)
Disapprove 56 (+3)

Strongly approve 27 (-5)
Strongly disapprove 48 (+3)

R: 82/14 (strongly 66/9)
I: 36/58 (strongly 23/49)
D: 8/90 (strongly 3/80)


RV:

Approve 40
Disapprove 55

Strongly approve 31
Strongly disapprove 47

He basically went from being mildly unpopular to being quite unpopular. This could just be an outlier, though.

Gallup backed up these numbers a couple posts up. An encouraging trend, but I doubt it holds up unless these negative economic sentiments among the population hold true.

The only way Trump wins is that the economy restabilizes despite high debt, overpriced equities, high tariffs, political instability, and limited competition. The way that happens is either the banks have been able to sell more debt than ever or technology is really beginning to change the way things work in interesting ways. Maybe automation tamed inflation in ways that allow for unlimited public debt, helicopter economics, and stimulus.

Any banker can sell debt. There's always some fool who has some insane plan for making a huge amount of money fast  with little effort... competent  bankers ask where the collateral is, and the would-be borrower quips "Who needs collateral?", and rejects the borrower. Technological change is largely improvements in what people already have, and people are not going to spend big money for subtle improvements unless they are already flush with cash. With the unusually-high level of economic inequality that we have, there are still retailers selling DVD video of current feature films -- and in prosperous times, obsolete technologies die.

In view of the inverted yield curve, I would expect a slowdown because people are not going to borrow short for such things as remodeling, new cars, or appliances except out of need. We are practically due for an economic meltdown such as those of 1929 or 2007 (those two were much the same for a year and a half), and so far the only economic stewardship that President Trump has shown is to ride a tide.   

[pbrower2a]

We could use some good science writing on this. Maybe we are going to see a pattern in which people's dwellings reflect when the last good time in their lives was, as the career patterns might allow people only one good decade or so and the rest be awful. So one rides a technological tide for a decade or so and then when that tide breaks, so does that person economically -- and things never go well again. It looks like a job for someone like Isaac Asimov who is no longer available, for obvious reasons.

Thus in the distant future (maybe around 2060) you will be able to look at someone's unfurnished apartment and see technology and furnishings typical of the 2020's, hear mass culture from the same time, and see clothing on the person that reek of the 2020's, and conclude that the 2020's were the last time that that person had things going sort-of-OK. Real antiques will be a rarity; most of the mass culture in all its manifestations will be so gaudy that it will be indefensible in later times.   

[pbrower2a]

Univision/University of Houston – Texas Statewide Poll, September 2019

Q3. Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as President?

TOTAL APPROVE 44%  (29% strongly)
TOTAL DISAPPROVE 56% (36% strongly)

https://latinodecisions.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/Univision-UH-Texas-crosstabs-Sept-2019.pdf

[pbrower2a]

New Hampshire-Emerson

Disapprove 53
Approve 40

https://emersonpolling.reportablenews.com/pr/new-hampshire-2020-sanders-slips-in-new-hampshire-biden-warren-take-lead

Univision/University of Houston – Texas Statewide Poll, September 2019

Q3. Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as President?

TOTAL APPROVE 44%  (29% strongly)
TOTAL DISAPPROVE 56% (36% strongly)

https://latinodecisions.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/Univision-UH-Texas-crosstabs-Sept-2019.pdf

Trump supporters -- tell me how Trump wins with numbers like these, one of them in a state that would have had the 400th electoral vote for a Democrat in 2016.
 

Trump approval:

40% or less or disapproval over 52%
41-44% or disapproval over 50%
45-49% and negative


Note: these are colored green to the same shade if I believe that an independent or third-party nominee has a chance to win the state, but a Democrat has no meaningful chance. That is Utah for now.

tie (white)
45-49% and positive
50-54%
55% or higher

[pbrower2a]

It will be interesting to see how the polling of Donald Trump goes after the disclosure that Air Force planes were obliged to refuel profitably (for Trump) at the airport for a Trump resort. Note the large area in gray; some states could be very interesting -- and I do not mean Illinois. Massachusetts, New Jersey, New mexico, and Washington.

Texas is becoming more like the US as a whole, and it is hard to see how any Republican could win the Presidential election without it.  

[pbrower2a]

CNN/SSRS, Sep. 5-9, 1639 adults (prior poll Aug. 15-18)

Approve 39 (-1)
Disapprove 55 (+1)

We now have recent ABC/Wapo, CNN, and Gallup polls all with Trump under 40.

Strongly approve 28 (-7) (change from April, they don't always include this)
Strongly disapprove 45 (+3)

Do you think Donald Trump deserves to be re-elected, or not?

Adults: 36/60
RV (n=1526): 39/58

This is in the zone of the landslide loss for Trump in 2020.

[pbrower2a]

Texas: Quinnipiac, Sep. 4-9, 1410 RV

Approve 45
Disapprove 50

Definitely vote for Trump 35
Consider voting for Trump 14
Definitely not vote for Trump 48

This seems a little more realistic than the Univision/UH poll.

Something tells me even in this sh**tshow and even in a stronger sh**tshow, Trump's ceiling is greater than 52% in Texas.

It could also be that Texas is becoming less stereotypically Southern in its politics (see also Virginia and North Carolina).

[pbrower2a]

States for which I would like to see approval polls:

1. Minnesota -- just to dispel any idea that Trump's close loss in 2016 portends a narrow victory there.
2. Iowa -- tipping-point state in 2008
3. Illinois. OK, no surprise, but it has the most electoral votes for a state not shown for having a poll of any kind
4. Oregon -- big territory even if it has only seven electoral votes... see also Nevada, Montana, New Mexico, Idaho, and Kansas
5. Tennessee -- most populous state that looks reasonably-certain R
6. Massachusetts, Connecticut, New Jersey, Washington -- house-keeping
7. Nebraska -- I would love to see how those districts vote    

[pbrower2a]

Firehouse Strategies/Optimus, Sep. 5-7, likely voters in PA, MI, and WI

Pennsylvania (n=527)

Approve 43
Disapprove 52

Michigan (n=529)

Approve 45
Disapprove 49

Wisconsin (n=534)

Approve 42
Diapprove 54

Well, that's different.

This is a house pollster for Republicans. Except in Michigan, these numbers are just simply horrid.

This pollster uses "likely voters" (whatever that means is suspect) and under-reports people who now exclusively use cell-phones. Reliance upon a dying technology (land-lines versus cell phones) can get distorted results.

I live in Michigan, and although the Pennsylvania and Wisconsin results look uncharacteristic for Michigan. Could it be that someone commissioned a poll to attract 'conservative' funds to Michigan? One of Michigan, Pennsylvania, or Wisconsin is likely enough to bring about a Trump re-election.

None of the potential matchups of Biden, Sanders, nor Warren shows Trump getting more than 43%. Usually at this stage an incumbent President is not in campaign mode, so taking these numbers puts Trump within range of winning the state with a spirited and competent campaign. But he is already in campaign mode, giving speeches resembling those of Fidel Castro, who thought that such speeches were democracy themselves.    

Obviously Trump breaks many rules, and he broke lots of rules to get elected. Most obviously, Trump has done everything possible to offend and hurt those unlikely to vote for him based on their core beliefs, which one rarely sees in a democracy in which political give-and-take is the norm. But choosing to hurt those is not a safe way to avoid hurting those whom one does not intend to hurt. If one has no concern about losing the next election one can do that -- let us say, mistreating minority groups -- because the vote is rigged. What can people who have lost loved ones to the North Korean regime do about it -- vote against the regime?

   

[pbrower2a]

At this point I would guess that nobody really knows what a "likely voter" of 2020 is, and that the electorate will be far less than "adults". Registered voters is our best guess on the electorate for now. I do not see the electorate shrinking, and it is premature o predict what people not yet registered to vote will vote. Some of the voters of the 2020 election are now only 16 years old.

43% approve, and as usual that number  is lower than total approval. 100-DIS gives Trump a ceiling of 46%, and I doubt that he will reach that.

About 31% of Americans still have a steadfast belief in this President and his agenda... the fascist floor.

[pbrower2a]

The bottom line: President Trump’s actions on health care are extremely unpopular with
voters in key November 2020 battleground states, including independents and
Republicans. Indeed, if framed around the issue of health care, voters say they would even
vote for Attila the Hun over President Trump (45-41), if Attila the Hun would maintain
and improve the health care law including protections for people with pre-existing
conditions.

I wonder if Judas Iscariot will appear as one of the alternatives to Trump. Vlad Tepes? (Dracula)... Cecil Price (the Mississippi deputy sheriff who betrayed James Chaney, Andrew Goodman, and Michael Schwerner to KKK fascists who murdered them)...


One of two things is happening. It is possible that the difference between a Trump win and a Trump loss is heavily concentrated in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin in which case those three states decide a close election in the Electoral College and the others in this group go barely to Trump... or these states are closer, in which case Trump could lose them all. One way or the other, Trump so far looks cooked as "well done" politically as the steak he insists upon. You know -- burned.   

[pbrower2a]

Morning Consult/Politico, Sep. 13-15, 1994 RV (1-week change)

Approve 43 (nc)
Disapprove 53 (-1)

Strongly approve 24 (+1)
Strongly approve 42 (nc)

Interesting for comparison: do you approve or disapprove of the job President Obama did as president?

Approve 58
Disapprove 39

Strongly approve 34
Strongly disapprove 27

2020:

Definitely vote for Trump 29
Probably vote for Trump 8
Probably someone else 7
Definitely someone else 46

GCB: D 44, R 37

When all is said and done, the President most similar in character and temperament to Barack Obama is Dwight Eisenhower. Obama has lain low as Trump treats him as a pariah. The contrast will be obvious when Obama goes to the Democratic national convention.

[pbrower2a]

Fabrizio Ward for AARP

https://www.aarp.org/research/topics/politics/info-2019/five-state-prescription-drug-survey.html

ARIZONA  

Main Points:

Presidential: Biden 50 - Trump 45  (Biden +5)
Approval: Disapprove 50 - Approve 46  (-4 Approval)

Senate Generic Ballot: R 43 - D 42  (R+1)
Senate: McSally 45 - Kelly 44  (McSally +1)
Approval: Approve 48 - Disapprove 39  (+9 Approval)

Sample
Party Reg: Republican 39 - Independent 25 - Democratic 33
Ideology: Conservative 44 - Moderate 33 - Liberal 18

(I have a newer poll so I am not using this one)

COLORADO:

Presidential: Biden 51 - Trump 42  (Biden +9)
Approval: Disapprove 55 - Approve 43  (-12 Approval)

Senate Generic Ballot: D 44 - R 42  (D+2)
Senate: Gardner 45 - Johnson 39  (Gardner +6)
Approval: Approve 43 - Disapprove 40  (+3 Approval)

Sample
Party Reg: Democratic 33 - Republican 33 - Independent 20
Ideology: Conservative 35 - Moderate 36 - Liberal 24
(This changes nothing)

KENTUCKY:

Presidential: Trump 53 - Trump 41  (Trump +12)
Trump Approval: Approve 55 - Disapprove 43  (+12 Approval)

Senate Generic Ballot: R 48 - D 42  (R+6)
Senate: McConnell 47 - McGrath 46  (McConnell +1)
McConnell Job Approval: Disapprove 51 - Approve 46  (-5 Approval)
McConnell Favorability: Unfavorable 54 - Favorable 35  (-19 Favorability)
McGrath Favorability: Favorable 27 - Unfavorable 23  (+4 Favorability)

Sample
Party Registration: Democratic 45 - Republican 43 - Independent 10
Ideology: Conservative 44 - Moderate 31 - Liberal 18

MAINE:

Presidential: Biden 50 - Trump 44  (Biden +6)
Approval: Disapprove 53 - Approve 45  (-8 Approval)

Senate Generic Ballot: R 43 - D 42  (R+1)
Senate: Collins 52 - Gideon 35  (Collins +17)
Collins Approval: Approve 55 - Disapprove 41  (+14 Approval)
Collins Favorability: Favorable 49 - Unfavorable 41  (+8 Favorability)
Gideon Favorability: Favorable 16 - Unfavorable 12  (+4 Favorability)

Sample
Party Reg: Democratic 33 - Republican 32 - Independent 32
Ideology: Conservative 36 - Moderate 36 - Liberal 24

(newer than anything that I have for this state)

NORTH CAROLINA:

Main Points:

Presidential: Biden 49 - Trump 45  (Biden +4)
Approval: Disapprove 50 - Approve 47  (-3 Approval)

Senate Generic Ballot: D 44 - R 44  (Even)
Senate: Cunningham 42 - Tillis 41  (Cunningham +1)
Approval: Disapprove 42 - Approve 38  (-4 Approval)

Sample
Party Reg: Democratic 37 - Republican 33 - Independent 26  (D+4)
Ideology: Conservative 42 - Moderate 32 - Liberal 21

(changes nothing)

Nevada, ALG: 43-57. Adds a state not filled in at all. 

Trump approval:

40% or less or disapproval over 52%
41-44% or disapproval over 50%
45-49% and negative


Note: these are colored green to the same shade if I believe that an independent or third-party nominee has a chance to win the state, but a Democrat has no meaningful chance. That is Utah for now.

tie (white)
45-49% and positive
50-54%
55% or higher

[pbrower2a]

I did not add the polls from Firehouse strategies; I think they are manipulated for some purpose as well as being from a very suspect pollster.

[pbrower2a]

SN loves to compare Obama's approvals in 2011 and Trump approvals in 2019. Obama had 10% unemployment and Trump has 4% unemployment, but his corruption has lead him to 43% approval rating

Obama became President when Americans were scared that the economic meltdown that they were experiencing was a reprise of the three dreary years following the 1929 Great Stock Market Crash.  After a year and a half from the peaks of 2007 and 1929 the decline in securities prices were much the same. Few can question the stewardship of Obama. Oh, but it wasn't perfect? Such was also said of FDR.

The difference was that the meltdown leading into the Great Depression fully destroyed the political power of the economic elites of the 1920's, and the 2007-2009  meltdown ended in a recovery for the elites of recent times, allowing those elites to invest in the politics that culminated in absolute plutocracy in 2017 complete with a President acting much like a fascist dictator and a Congress mostly of stooges.   

[pbrower2a]

Missouri: Remington Research/Missouri Scout, Sep. 18-19, 1046 LV

Approve 53
Disapprove 43

Trump 53, Biden 42
Trump 54, Warren 40
Trump 54, Sanders 37

I was not going to insert an old poll by any pollster, but I am including this one. In a state that Republicans should normally take for granted, the approval number is pretty damn awful.   

Trump approval:

40% or less or disapproval over 52%
41-44% or disapproval over 50%
45-49% and negative


Note: these are colored green to the same shade if I believe that an independent or third-party nominee has a chance to win the state, but a Democrat has no meaningful chance. That is Utah for now.

tie (white)
45-49% and positive
50-54%
55% or higher

[pbrower2a]

ARG economic survey (monthly), Sep. 17-20, 1100 adults including 989 RV

Adults:

Approve 40 (-1)
Disapprove 58 (+3)

RV:

Approve 39 (-2)
Disapprove 59 (+3)

This is Trump's worst showing in this poll since April, and his highest disapproval number since Sep. 2018.

Yikes this is awful.

It's ARG, though.

Still horrible numbers -- like offensive statistics for the Detroit Kittens baseball team.

[pbrower2a]

The impeachment/Ukraine thing appears to be HELPING Trump!

Trump's average approval rating is up almost 1% from yesterday.

A 1% difference is not significant except in an election in which even a 1-vote plurality is enough to decide the winner.

Watch over the weekend. I say no more on this for now.

[pbrower2a]

People who already disapprove of Trump can only disapprove more of him, and people who approve of him will mostly think "so what?" I see little room for erosion of Trump support. People mostly select their media sources to confirm their biases.

[pbrower2a]

It will keep getting worse.

[pbrower2a]

Virginia: University of Mary Washington, Sep. 3-15, 1009 adults

Approve 39
Disapprove 54

Biden 55, Trump 37
Warren 53, Trump 38
Sanders 53, Trump 38
Harris 50, Trump 38

Trump approval:

40% or less or disapproval over 52%
41-44% or disapproval over 50%
45-49% and negative


Note: these are colored green to the same shade if I believe that an independent or third-party nominee has a chance to win the state, but a Democrat has no meaningful chance. That is Utah for now.

tie (white)
45-49% and positive
50-54%
55% or higher

When did a Democratic nominee for President last win Virginia by 10% or more?



1944, FDR vs. Dewey. -

[pbrower2a]

NPR/Marist, Sep. 25, 864 adults (2-week change)

Approve 44 (+3)
Disapprove 53 (-1)

Strongly approve 31 (+3)
Strongly disapprove 39 (-6)

In some polls there’s was no change but in others, it’s as if Trump started getting better at his job. What gives?

I for one would be ecstatic if Trump has a 44% approval rating on Election Day 2020

He could win with 44% approval especially if there's a significant third party vote. A couple points lower and I'd feel better about it.

This time the Third Party figure who stands to win votes will be taking Right-leaning voters.

It's hard to predict what the discussion of impeachment will have upon the Presidential election.