Which state is more likely to flip in 2020?

[pbrower2a]

Indiana has growing suburbs and Missouri doesn't. Indiana suburbs have been later to grow and have been able to keep some of their rural characteristics longer, but they are growing as few suburbs are growing in the Midwest. See also Columbus. Missouri suburbs of St. Louis and Kansas City are old and are taking on urban characteristics (blight, decaying infrastructure, and rising costs of public services) -- but they are not growing. Indiana has been more R because it is less urban and suburban.   

[pbrower2a]

Indiana goes for the Democrat if everything goes wrong for the Republican, including an economic downturn or either an international disaster or the threat of one (Goldwater being connected to loose talk about nukes as a solution to the Red Menace when "Red" meant "Soviet" or Mao).

Obama won Indiana when the RV business got a triple-whammy of

(1) an economic meltdown
(2) a credit crunch, and
(3) some incredibly-high gasoline prices.

People could less afford to buy or use them.