Holy s**t. 23% Yes to 76% No.
Y’all are delusional.
Not after Democrats won the overall majority in the House vote in 2018, picked up a Senate seat, and after so many bad approval polls for Trump.
Yes, I know... I know. The state has gone only once for a Democratic nominee for President since 1948, which is exactly what people were often thinking about Virginia in 2008 until about 11PM on Election Night. Lots of people are moving into Arizona from high-cost California, and the Hispanic vote is growing fast (with an allowance for double-counting). People bring their California voting habits to Arizona as they did to Colorado, and Trump has not been able to shake off bad vibes with Mexican-Americans.
A 2018-style electorate wins the Democratic nominee 295 or 296 electoral votes (the difference being ME-02) based on the combined vote for House seats in the states. House votes, unlike votes for Governors (nobody is going to conclude that Massachusetts or Vermont will go for Trump in 2020 because those states voted for Republican Governors who may offset the State legislatures) are voting on federal issues and know it.
The biggest federal issue for most Americans is now President Donald Trump.
Keep watching the statewide polls starting in January. Some polls indicate that only 35% to 40% of all voters want to re-elect Donald Trump. Republicans do, so he will not lose a primary challenge. This said, many conservatives (about 45% of the electorate is conservative enough that it will vote for the Democratic nominee except under the most freakish circumstances) will be amenable to some right-wing alternative to both Donald Trump and the Democratic nominee sure to be a liberal. Under even the best of circumstances (Obama 2008) is the Democrat going to get anywhere near 55% of the popular vote.
This said, a 50-40-10 split, the '10' going mostly to some Third Party or independent conservative, looks highly likely now.
Poll
