Trump approval ratings thread 1.3

[pbrower2a]

Gallup:

Approve - 42%(-1)
Disapprove - 54%(+2)

https://twitter.com/NumbersMuncher/status/1021408395893633024

Between this and NBC it’s clear opinions of Trump are just baked in

Yup. Don’t think it’ll budge much barring a recession

Or a collapse in the income of the farm sector, which involves rather few people.


54% disapproval means that 54% of the people will vote for someone else. Democrats will need only unite behind their nominee and they will elect that person for President.

[pbrower2a]

NBC/WSJ poll: Trump is stronger with the base, weaker with the middle

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/nbc-wsj-poll-trump-stronger-base-weaker-middle-n893601

That's how it goes with those who take extremist stances that pretend that the other side has no relevance. Some people love to see the Other Side pulling their hair and rending their clothes, cursing at the 'inexorable reality' of their side winning dominion. Schadenfreude is a cheap enticement and often relates to the Other Side having to sell off stuff cheaply to survive. At the classic extremes, Commies were delighted to show how old elites (clergy, landowners, and capitalists) cursed 'socialist' states from afar; Nazis were delighted to show Jews cursing the 'new Germany'. Making scapegoats, pariahs, and 'losers' out of political opponents can please the truest believers.

It is also terribly immature. 

[pbrower2a]

Gallup:

Approve - 42%(-1)
Disapprove - 54%(+2)

https://twitter.com/NumbersMuncher/status/1021408395893633024

Between this and NBC it’s clear opinions of Trump are just baked in

Yup. Don’t think it’ll budge much barring a recession

Or a collapse in the income of the farm sector, which involves rather few people.


54% disapproval means that 54% of the people will vote for someone else. Democrats will need only unite behind their nominee and they will elect that person for President.

Unless, you know, some of that 54% disapprove of his opponent. That would make disapproval cancel out and turn it into a lesser of two evils election, which is where incumbency and the economy start to become distinct advantages for Trump.

In all honesty, can you give me a credible message for Democrats to run on in 2020 if the economy is doing well and we are not at war? Candidates who run against incumbents have to run on a “change” platform by nature. What kind of change can Dems get people excited about at this point?

Here's how Democrats win the 2020 Presidential election; an even shift of .77% gives the Democrats Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. An even shift of 1.19% adds Florida. Even an even shift that puts Florida among the states for the Democratic nominee does not require a majority of the vote going to the Democrat.

Even shifts are most likely to be approached when they are small -- and in very close states -- in a Presidential election.

I say that 100-DIS is my best and most reasonable ceiling for the Trump vote. That does not mean that the Democrat will win 54% of the popular vote; it means that Trump will get no more than 46% of the popular vote.


The difference between what the Democrat gets and 54% of the non-Trump vote will be in Third Parties. Although it is possible for a Democrat to get 54% of the popular vote, such is unlikely. More likely there will be dissident conservatives who choose to vote for someone other than Trump. That could be someone more right-wing on 'social issues'; that could be some plutocrat running a vanity campaign; that could be someone who wants a conventional Republican (let us say Jeb Bush) without the sexism, bad diplomacy, and tariffs.

I do not say watch the Democrats and see if they nominate some extremist that the Trump can pillory as another George McGovern, an allegedly dangerous radical offensive to mass sensibilities. That failed with Carter against Reagan, the Carter campaign doing everything possible to depict Reagan as the sort who would start World War III against the Soviet Union and replace welfare with starvation or peonage.

The Democrats can win with someone who reeks of probity, who stays clear of extremism, who promises to return to free trade, and of course who addresses the concerns of most Americans. Their ideal would be another Barack Obama, who looks really good in polling if not in President Trump's disparaging tweets.  Campaign like Obama, and you will win.

[pbrower2a]

ARG, July 17-20, 1100 adults (change from last month)

Approve 37 (-3)
Disapprove 57 (+3)

This is Trump's worst showing in this poll since February.  Among registered voters, his approval is 37/58 this month, but I don't see June RV numbers for comparison.

I thought ARG was trash. Or is that only when their polls are favorable to Trump?

The margin of error for most polls is 4%. 3% shifts are close, and may mean something.

Basically one throws out outliers on both sides and looks at the rest.  

Comparisons between polls by the same pollster are relevant so long as there is no change of methodology.
.

[pbrower2a]

Michigan, Emerson:

Gretchen Whitmer (D) and Bill Schuette (R) are overwhelming favorites in their August 7 primaries,  and Whitmer looks to win the gubernatorial election 43-36 with 9% for someone else and 12% undecided.

Debbie Stabenow (D, incumbent) is just short of the 50% threshold to hold her Senate seat, but she is ahead 47-29 of John James and 48-32 over Sandi Penssler. The big leads look definitive.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://www.emerson.edu/sites/default/files/Files/Academics/ecp-pr-mi-7.23.pdf

Comment: Republicans will lose at least two, and probably four House seats here. At this point, Michigan looks as if it is for Trump what Indiana was for Obama in 2008: a one-time fluke. The difference is that Obama solved a lot of problems in Indiana (recession, credit crunch, and high energy costs) so Hoosiers could safely go back to voting Republican. Trump looks like a huge disappointment in Michigan.

This poll is of registered voters saying that they are likely to vote in the midterm election. July 19-21.

[pbrower2a]

Vermont (VPR-Vermont PBS)

28% approve
61% disapprove

http://projects.vpr.net/vpr-vermont-pbs-poll

Vermont will be one of the worst two or three states for the President in 2020.

Michigan, Emerson:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://www.emerson.edu/sites/default/files/Files/Academics/ecp-pr-mi-7.23.pdf

55% or higher dark blue
50-54% medium blue
less than 50% but above disapproval pale blue
even white
46% to 50% but below disapproval pale red
42% to 45% medium red
under 42% deep red

States and districts hard to see:

CT 39
DC 17
DE 39
HI 33
NJ 37
RI 30
NE-01 45
NE-02 38
NE-03 55
NH 39
RI 30
VT 32

Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.

100-Disapproval

55% or higher dark blue
50% to 54% or higher but not tied medium blue
50% or higher but positive pale blue

ties white

45% or higher and negative pale red
40% to 44% medium red
under 40% deep red

States and districts hard to see:

CT 41
DC 20
DE 43
HI 36
NH 49
NJ 37
RI 30
NE-01 55
NE-02 46
NE-03 66
RI 30
VT 36


Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.

*With the explicit question of whether the President should or should not be re-elected, or 100-DIS if such is all that is available:


Re-elect/do not re-elect if known; 100-DIS otherwise

100-DIS

55% or higher dark blue
50% to 54% or higher but not tied medium blue
50% or higher but positive pale blue

ties white

45% or higher and negative pale red (or 55% do-not-reelect or higher)
40% to 44% medium red (or 50 to 54% do-not-reelect or higher)
under 40% deep red (or 50% or less do-not-reelect if do-not re-elect if do-not-reelect is higher than reelect)
Ties for elect and re-elect are also in white.

States and districts hard to see:

CT 41
DC 20
DE 43
FL 37-54
HI 36
NH 49
NJ 37
RI 30
NE-01 55
NE-02 46
NE-03 66
RI 30
VT 36


Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.


Nothing from before November 2017. Polls from Alabama and New Jersey are exit polls from 2017 elections. 

[pbrower2a]

Read down to see the relevant material at https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/cagle-vs-kemp-headlines-runoff-day-georgia-n893971:


Polling of a significant part of the electorate: people who hold both Parties in contempt:

So how are these kinds of voters breaking now? Well, our latest NBC/WSJ poll finds that Democrats are over-performing among voters who hold negative views of both parties (representing 13 percent of the sample). Here’s the past and current congressional preference among these voters:

- 2010 merged NBC/WSJ poll: 49 percent GOP, 23 percent DEM (R+26)
- 2014 merged NBC/WSJ poll: 51 percent GOP, 24 percent DEM (R+27)
- 2018 merged NBC/WSJ poll (through June): 50 percent DEM, 36 percent GOP (D+14)
- 2018 NBC/WSJ poll from July: 55 percent DEM, 25 percent GOP (D+30)

What’s more in our current poll, these voters disproportionately are down on Trump (68 percent disapprove of his job, versus 52 percent of all voters), and they are enthusiastic about the upcoming midterms (63 percent of them have high interest, versus 55 percent of all voters who say this).

Democratic candidates are increasingly seen as being out of the mainstream

Those numbers above are good news for Democrats in the NBC/WSJ poll. Here’s some bad news, however: Democratic candidates for Congress are increasingly seen as out of the mainstream — a change from 2012 and 2016.

According to our poll, 33 percent of voters view Democratic congressional candidates as in the mainstream, versus 56 percent who say they are out of step. That’s essentially the same score that GOP congressional candidates get — 33 percent mainstream, 57 percent out of step.

But the 33 percent viewing Democratic candidates in the mainstream is a drop of 15 points from 2016 and 12 points from 2012 (while the GOP numbers have been pretty flat).

Comment: this suggests a Blue Wave in 2018. That is a 57% swing in a significant part of the electorate, probably comparable to the swing between the near-landslide victory for Barack Obama and the rise of the Tea Party to political influence.

It also suggests that Donald Trump will lose, possibly in a landslide, taking a bunch of Republican Senators (echo of the 2014 election that gave Republicans control of the Senate) with him.

[pbrower2a]

Quinnipiac:

58% Disapprove (51% Strongly) (+3)
38% Approve (28% Strongly) (+2)

Source

Their early July poll was 40-55, so this is actually +3 disapproval and -2 approval.

I have thought that disapproval of any kind was big trouble -- but "strong disapproval" is big, bad trouble. This has gone from "wolf at the door" to "tiger at the door". 

If this holds in 2020, then anyone canvassing for Trump risks extreme hostility. That's not to say that the Democrat wins 58% of the vote; that is saying that President Trump gets about 42% of the vote. A reasonable ceiling for the Democrat is about 55% of the vote. But even with the Democrat getting only 45% pf the vote (a reasonable floor for an unusually-weak nominee), the Democrat wins. Third-Party and independent (probably vanity campaigns by plutocrats claiming that their business expertise is more relevant than his to running the government) candidates devouring much of the usual vote for a Republican candidate. There will still be a big conservative vote, but a big chunk of it will not be for Trump.

[pbrower2a]

38% is historically rock-bottom support for just about any main Party's nominee should he seek re-election.

[pbrower2a]

So probably doesn't mean anything, and I'm cherry picking, but most of Trump's more favorable polls show even(or close to it) party i.d:

Marist -12 approval:
35% - Democrat
27% - Republican
36% - Independent

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/NPR_PBS-NewsHour_Marist-Poll_Nature-of-the-Sample-and-Tables_Pres.-Trump-Congress-and-the-Midterm-Elections_July-2018_181807241056.pdf#page=3

Quinnipiac -20 approval:
31% - Democrat
25% - Republican
38% - Independent

https://poll.qu.edu/images/polling/us/us07242018_demos_ufgp12.pdf/

Morning Consult -6 approval:
35% - Democrat
34% - Republican
25% - Independent

https://morningconsult.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/180736_crosstabs_POLITICO_v1_DK.pdf

I know we're not supposed to read too much into party i.d, but its pretty obvious some pollsters are seeing very different electorates right now.

 

It could be that Morning Consult recognizes fewer 'independent' voters, probably accepting that people who voted with the GOP in 2010, 2012, 2014, and 2016 despite claiming to be independent might as well be Republicans now.  Quinnipiac sees fewer partisan voters and more independent voters.

It is possible to have different polling results based upon one's screen. "Adults" includes people unlikely to vote. Registered voters will find voting easy if they so wish. Both of these are easy to determine.

So who is a 'likely voter'? Good question. Someone on life support in terminal care is hard to write off even if the person hasn't missed a vote in over 60 years. Habits may not die, but the person will.  In my county, the election officials read the obituaries and disqualify absentee votes from persons who can be identified as decedents. On the other side, what of someone who turns eighteen a couple days before the election, who has not yet registered to vote but shows signs of registering at the first possible moment,  and considers voting just slightly less of a rite of passage than driving a motor vehicle or graduating from high school?

Some people born in as late as 2002 who have never voted will vote in the 2020 election. Nobody can predict who those people are.

If one sees changes in predictors of voting based on how certain demographics will vote, and so far that appears as approval and disapproval, then we may have cause for believing that the political climate has changed. Quinnipiac just had a poll  in which it connected people distrustful of both parties voting largely for Republicans beginning in 2010 and lasting through 2016 -- only to find that such voters have swung sharply against Republicans including the President.  I don't have to discuss why such voters swung sharply R in 2010 or why they have suddenly swung as they have. I do not need to connect such to other demographic characteristics as religion, ethnicity, education, income, or region. A vote is a vote.  Maybe I will do as I am prone -- showing a model of how such changes  expectations of the 2020 election if that alone is applied as a shift in voters from 2016 to 2020.       

[pbrower2a]

2016 result among states decided by 10% or less:

8% or more -- saturation 7
4% to 7.99% -- saturation 5
1.5% to 2.99% -- saturation 3
under 1.5% -- saturation 2

States in gray look too far away to be affected by a shift in votes from 2016 to polling in 2018.

[pbrower2a]

Just a reminder, folks, that the threadmaster froze the 1.2 forum after about 2000 posts. This is #1994. I have started 1.4, so bring the posts that you want to start with and build on over there.