Trump approval ratings thread 1.2

[pbrower2a]

What is the source for the above map? If his disapproval rating in Iowa is this high, then I doubt he has net approval in Alaska and Montana. I also would imagine he would have higher disapproval in Maine by now.

This is a map of the most recent credible approval ratings of the President in the states. Because of recent gubernatorial and senatorial elections in Alabama, New Jersey, and Virginia we have seen plenty of polls for those states (although I expect that to slow down greatly). The oldest polling data is from collections of polling data from states as applied to tracking polls over perhaps three months or so. If those polls are from July to September I assign them to mid-August and maintain polls from mid-August or later.

Credibility of a pollster is rarely an issue. There are push polls intended to change an interviewee's mind, and there are polls commissioned by special interests such as trade associations, labor unions, and political parties.

If disapproval for the President is now at 60%  in Iowa and at 48% in Alabama, then mass sentiment in both states is definitely not where it was a year ago. But we need not be stupid. There are states (Mississippi, Arkansas, Louisiana, Tennessee, and South Carolina) with similar economics and political cultures. Iowa's demographics are similar to those of Minnesota and Wisconsin, so I would expect polls in Minnesota and Wisconsin to move in tandem with Iowa. I would expect Wisconsin to show a disapproval of the President around 60% and Minnesota above 60%. To this I can discuss Michigan, which has one of the largest percentages of black people north of the Mason-Dixon line, but is otherwise like Iowa.    

I expect changes in any polling of Ohio and Pennsylvania, should we get any new polling. Ohio usually travels politically with, of all states, Florida... see the '59' on Florida?

My map does not show polling data as I predict it to appear in this series of maps. The best that I could do as a prediction would be to contrast recent polling against Cook PVI values (based upon the assumption of a 50-50 split in voting, which is sort of OK for 2008 but good for all other elections beginning in 2000,  and extrapolate such to states for which I have no recent data.  

Ooh... I have talked myself into a project.

[pbrower2a]

At this point I can show how states now diverge from Cook PVI. For example, Trump would probably lose Minnesota 51-49 in a 50-50 election in 2020. But the polling map above suggests that he would lose Minnesota by a margin of 54-46.  That suggests that Minnesota alone would indicate a 53-47 national election. Trump would lose what he lost to Hillary Clinton, but also lose Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Florida, and ME-02. Iowa, North Carolina, and Ohio would be iffy, capable of going either way as effective ties.

But that is one of the milder results. Neighboring Iowa is about R+3, and Trump would lose it 60-40.  That is a 13-point swing, one of the largest.  In such a scenario you would see the Democrat picking up what I have in the 'Minnesota as telling swing' scenario... obviously Iowa, but also

North Carolina
Ohio
Arizona
Georgia
South Carolina
Texas
Indiana
Missouri
Mississippi
Louisiana
Montana

...and Kansas would be on the brink of flipping.

Alabama is a shift of 12 -- a big one.

I am in no position to say which state shift best marks how America will go in 2020. State characteristics may decide how individual states go.

[pbrower2a]

Even 52% approval for Trump in Tennessee indicates big trouble for him.

[pbrower2a]

Updated for Michigan:

Before I set out on  my project, I get a poll on a state of which I made an allusion: Tennessee.  If  Donald Trump simply made a fool of himself in Alabama by supporting Roy Moore, then that would not appear in Tennessee as well. But if there is a trend in the Mountain and Deep South (western Tennessee and southern Alabama are Deep South, and eastern Tennessee and northern Alabama are Mountain South) altogether, then Tennessee should be drifting away from Trump and the GOP. Tennessee used to be one of the most progressive of the Southern states, and one of my favorite pols (Al Gore) was a US Senator in Tennessee.  It's one state, but it does have an open Senate seat in 2018 and an attractive Democratic candidate to fill it. Ten electoral votes are not trivial, either.

Vanderblit-Tennessee: 48% approve -47% disapprove

I can also add an update for Michigan, a state in which the bare win of Donald Trump looks like about as much a fluke as a six-game winning streak for the Detroit Cocker Spaniels baseball team will be in 2018 (I expect the Tigers to lose 100+ games next year):

In other results, 61% gave President Donald Trump a negative job approval rating, while 37% gave him a positive one. In August, Trump's unfavorable-favorable numbers were 56% to 36%.

Of those polled, 47% said Trump is mentally stable, while 42% said he is mentally unstable. Those numbers were 45% to 43% in August.

https://www.freep.com/story/news/local/michigan/2017/12/15/new-poll-has-bill-schuette-up-3-points-over-gretchen-whitmer-2018-governors-race/956521001/
[/quote]

The contest shows both the leading Democrat and Republican with numbers in the 30s, which is completely useless for predicting anything. In 2008 I had a poll for Tennessee in which Obama had a lead over McCain in Tennessee. Obama actually led something like 39-37. Obama did not get more than the 37% that he had in that poll in the election in Tennessee that year.
 
This approval map shows  electoral votes to the states on the approval map.

Trump approval, net positive

55% or higher
50-54%
44-49%

Ties are in white.

Trump approval, net negative

44-49%
40-45%
39% or lower

But raw disapproval numbers appear instead  of electoral votes here:

Disapproval (net negative for Trump) :

55% or higher
50-54%
44-49%

Ties are in white.

(net positive for Trump)
46-49%  
41-45%
40% or lower

[pbrower2a]

Here is the 2017 map of Cook PVI.  With a 50-50 split of the popular vote, a PVI of D+6 (Connecticut) means that the Democrat can expect to get 56% of the popular vote from Connecticut and that a PVI of R+9 (Indiana) indicates that one can reasonably expect the Republican to win 59% of the popular vote in Indiana. Districts of Maine and Nebraska are shown as their Congressional districts vote for members of Congress. DC? I'm guessing that the Democrat is going to win about 90% of the vote in just about any election, so that is about D+40.  

Color and intensity will indicate the variance from a tie (ties will be in white) with  in a 50-50 election with blue for an R lean and red for a D lean. Numbers will be shown except in individual districts

int      var
2        1-4%
3        5-8%
5        9-12%
7        13-19%
9        20% or more

DC -- way out of reach for any Republican.

ME-01 D+8
ME-02 R+2

NE-01 R+11
NE-02 R+4
NE-03 R+27

(data from Wikipedia, map mine)

Map for recent polls (please -- no comments yet!)

From November 7 on.


Exit polls from last night. VA 40/57, NJ 36/63.

You can hardly be more definitive than with an exit poll.

Gallup had 38/55 nationally on November 7.
Arkansas 47.5-45.5, Talk Business/Hendrix University (round up both)
California USC/Dornsife 22-66 Nov 7 (superseded)

NC, Elon 37-57 Nov 9
Alabama 53-45 Fox News (superseded)
Colorado 64% unfavorable (superseded -- and a favorability poll, so I don't need it)
California, PPIC 34-63, likely voters
Minnesota, 31-54, Survey USA
Iowa, 35-60 Selzer. Des Moines Register
Alabama, 48-48. Exit poll. One could hardly be more definitive.
Tennessee, Vanderbilt University. 48-47

][gh=== ...  iki

(The cat just walked upon my keyboard).

Michigan, EPIC-MRA. 37-61.

The Florida poll was from October, and the Colorado poll is from PPP (56% disapproval).

For the newest of these polls, I use 199-DIS as a reasonable ceiling for the Trump vote in 2020. Thus:

Lightest shades are for a raw total of votes that allows for a win with a margin of 5% or less; middle shades are for totals with allow for wins with 6 to 10% margins; deepest shades are for vote percentages that allow wins of 10% or more. Numbers are for the projected vote for Trump.   

100-DIS gives a reasonable ceiling for Trump in 2020 -- at least the most suitable one that I can think of. He may have won Iowa by nearly ten points, but he would be crushed there if an election were to be held there today. The recent poll suggests that the President has disappointed Iowa voters very much.
   

[pbrower2a]

https://www.freep.com/story/news/local/michigan/2017/12/15/new-poll-has-bill-schuette-up-3-points-over-gretchen-whitmer-2018-governors-race/956521001/

Wow. This poll makes me think Michigan in 2016 was a complete fluke - Trump approval rating underwater 61-37.

It's pretty clear that unless something changes quick, there's going to be pretty large gains in the midwestern states that swung heavily towards trump. Two new polls from Iowa and Michigan, showing trump approval -25 and -24 respectively. In states he won (albeit Michigan narrowly).

Consistent with what I have sen in rural Michigan. Republicans are bailing from him in Michigan.

Even Indiana looks in play now. 

[pbrower2a]

Older polls or polling data.

There was plenty of polling data that Morning Consult dumped a few months ago, and that is the latest that I have for most states -- and that poling skewed somewhat R.

The newest data looks like outliers compared to the idea that the 2020 election would be somewhat close, as was the 2012 election.

When I see polls suggesting that Trump is about dead even in Alabama (a state that no Democratic nominee for President has won since 1976) and then see a poll suggesting much the same for Alabama, then I have no cause to dismiss such with the word "outlier" -- especially when I see horrid polls for Trump in states like Florida and North Carolina.  When Iowa and Michigan come in in near-tandem with disapproval ratings of 60 and 61, then I am tempted to draw conclusions about states that usually vote with those states.  No way is Iowa a runaway for a Democratic nominee for President unless Minnesota and Wisconsin are also runaways. No way is Michigan a runaway for a Democratic nominee for President unless Pennsylvania is also a runaway. Florida and Ohio generally vote together; they will not be 10% apart.  Likewise, an old bit of polling data that suggests that Georgia is about dead-even in approval and disapproval looks dated when Alabama polls suggest that the 2020 election map might be a "crimson tide", at least in Atlas colors.

I do not have enough recent polling to have any idea of how some states will go. I need a poll of Texas to be able to predict how Texas would go. There's just no good analogue for Texas, which straddles regions. I can say nothing about the High Plains states. I can say that Donald Trump is so unpopular (and we all know why) would lose decisively to just about any Democrat. Any Republican connected to this President's agenda will be soiled.

Outliers happen.  If I saw a disapproval rating for President Trump at 47%  while such states as Michigan, Iowa, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania show disapproval ratings near 60%, then I would now see a 47% approval in Ohio as an outlier.  The rating that I saw for Iowa looked like an outlier until I saw a poll suggesting much the same for Michigan.

I can say at this point that it is highly unlikely that Donald Trump will be re-elected as President in a free and fair election. Indeed I now think it more likely that Donald Trump would win a rigged election than win a fair election.  

  
    

[pbrower2a]

The tax 'reform' is extremely unpopular, as is much that this President does. People are scared of his foreign policy. They have no optimism in the domineering greed that is the sum total of his philosophy and policy. We are seeing corruption that makes Teapot Dome look like a couple dollar bills being unaccounted for because they got stuck together.

The slumlord , the money manipulator, and the loan-shark have become the heroes of our political system. The idea is to ensure that every transaction has a profit for the gain of some Trump-associated racketeer. The monopolistic gouge that every reformer since the 1880s has seen as the economic Devil has become the definitive expression of all that we peons and proles are expected to see as wonderful.

If you are to have a capitalist as a hero, at least choose an innovator who makes his money by making lives better, or some small-scale capitalist who meets basic human needs well.  The difference between Donald Trump and Al Capone is that Capone murdered people.   

[pbrower2a]

Here's a polling map that I had back on October 10. Many states then had data from a compilation of polling samples less favorable to the President than what I showed recently.

Approval

Trump ahead      Trump behind

55% or higher    45% to 49%
50% to 54%       40% to 44%  
45% to 49%       under 40%

Ties are in white.



Disapproval:

60% or higher  (deep red)
57% to 59%
55% to 56%
50% to 54%
46% to 49%
43% to 45%
42% or less

[pbrower2a]

Rassmusen reports latest tracking poll:
Disapproval: 55%
Approval: 43%
I know a lot of people like to ignore them but I've always relied on Rassmusens surveys because their Likely voter screen is very accurate, for example they nailed the National popular vote last year.

In recent elections, what has mattered has been not so much what people believe as it has been 'who votes'.With 'adequate' voter suppression, Republicans could still make big Senate gains in 2018 and give Donald Trump a landslide win in the Presidential electiion of 2020. Grossly-unpopular governments win through vote fraud in sham elections.

Republican-linked interests have much to lose if Democrats win in 2018. Gridlock would prevent further radicalization of American institutions, and reversal ofTrump policies enacted in the next year could be an easy and obvious agenda for an Obama-like Presidency with a willing Congress. Obviously the ideal for the Master Class would be the enshrinement of ther economic agenda, an inhuman ideology in which all defers to the greed of the super-rich irrespective of mass sentiment and even free markets finds itself  written into the Constitution.

I may be ahead of reality and I hope that I am wrong.The United States has just become an oligarchic society in which economic power deterines political power. Plutocratic regimes are corrupt, cruel, and repressive. Just look at the ARENA Party in El Salvador.

Current approval polls of the President and Congress show the weak position of the GOP in winning msssupport necessary for winning high-participation elections. the Virginia legislative elections and the special election for the US Senate in Alabama demonastrate the mass contempt for the GOP agenda. But shape the electrate well, and Republicans can win whatever they think they need at the time.



 

[pbrower2a]

Don't worry limo. This thread is titled "Trump approval ratings" but it's actually "Daily dose of libs trying to feel better in Trump's America".

Doug Jones+1.5

44 point swing in Tennessee yesterday

RIP the GOP in 2018. They need to moderate and become more reasonable so they get educated swing voters like me back into their fold.

Bragging about Doug Jones winning is like bragging about catching fish with sticks of dynamite.

Roy Moore threw away what should have been the surest of all Senate seats. That was a freakish circumstance. But we can also ask why the approval for Trump is equal with disapproval in Alabama among people who voted in the special election, something inconceivable a couple months ago. Maybe Roy Moore tore at support for this President.

Then I look at a poll of Tennessee of a Senate race of 2018, and I see a near tie in approval for the President. This is in a state with demographic similarities, and Roy Moore obviously has nothing to do with Tennessee politics. Mississippi? So the President has an approval rate of 51%. He would win, but that bodes ill for the President in 2020. A Trump win nationwide implies that the President has an approval rate in the high 50s and over 60% of the Mississippi vote.

So perhaps the President has a problem with mass perception. He has no cultural connections to the South. OK, neither did Ronald Reagan, who swept the South in his re-election bid. Uncharacteristic for any President, Donald Trump has no base of support in the three states containing his home.  He is as blatant a city slicker as there ever was,

OK, he is a thoroughly-nasty person, someone one can get along with only  if one thinks he can get something out of the transaction.  

[pbrower2a]

Two states of the Deep South, which is getting well characterized. It looks awful for Donald Trump.

The thrill is gone, baby! Or at least so it seems.

Louisiana:

Trump approval: 48-50 (-2)

https://mobile.twitter.com/melindadeslatte/status/943569233904066561?ref_src=twcamp%5Eshare%7Ctwsrc%5Eios%7Ctwgr%5Eother

Louisiana 2016 result:

Trump 58.1%
Clinton 38.4%

Mississippi. Weak. Very weak. Mississipi has politics largely related to an ethnic divide, but there obviously must be some erosion of white support for the President. I am not saying that Mississippi will be in play for a Senate seat in 2018 or for the Presidency in 2020. It will be one of the strongest states for the GOP  

Mason-Dixon polling.

http://www.msnewsnow.com/story/37104554/new-poll-shows-senator-wicker-ahead-of-chris-mcdaniel-in-possible-senate-race-matchup

Trump 51-43 in approval in a state he won by 18 points. ...

This approval map shows  electoral votes to the states on the approval map.

Trump approval, net positive

55% or higher
50-54%
44-49%

Ties are in white.

Trump approval, net negative

46-49%
40-45%
39% or lower

But raw disapproval numbers appear instead  of electoral votes here:

Disapproval (net negative for Trump) :

55% or higher
50-54%
44-49%

Ties are in white.

(net positive for Trump)
46-49%  
41-45%
40% or lower

[pbrower2a]

Don't worry limo. This thread is titled "Trump approval ratings" but it's actually "Daily dose of libs trying to feel better in Trump's America".

Doug Jones+1.5

44 point swing in Tennessee yesterday

RIP the GOP in 2018. They need to moderate and become more reasonable so they get educated swing voters like me back into their fold.

Bragging about Doug Jones winning is like bragging about catching fish with sticks of dynamite.

Roy Moore threw away what should have been the surest of all Senate seats. That was a freakish circumstance. But we can also ask why the approval for Trump is equal with disapproval in Alabama among people who voted in the special election, something inconceivable a couple months ago. Maybe Roy Moore tore at support for this President.

Then I look at a poll of Tennessee of a Senate race of 2018, and I see a near tie in approval for the President. This is in a state with demographic similarities, and Roy Moore obviously has nothing to do with Tennessee politics. Mississippi? So the President has an approval rate of 51%. He would win, but that bodes ill for the President in 2020. A Trump win nationwide implies that the President has an approval rate in the high 50s and over 60% of the Mississippi vote. And then there is a poll from Louisiana.

Maybe the more that people get to know the President, the less they like him. Well, he is obnoxious and dishonest. He's all sizzle and no steak.

So perhaps the President has a problem with mass perception. He has no cultural connections to the South. OK, neither did Ronald Reagan, who swept the South in his re-election bid. Uncharacteristic for any President, Donald Trump has no base of support in the three states containing his home.  He is as blatant a city slicker as there ever was, From what I remember about living in the South for a couple of years as a child, Southerners do not like city-slickers.

OK, he is a thoroughly-nasty person, someone one can get along with only  if one thinks he can get something out of the transaction.  

[pbrower2a]

But Republican pols are starting the barrage of laudatory praise of this President... and it sounds like a totalitarian personality cult.

[pbrower2a]

But Republican pols are starting the barrage of laudatory praise of this President... and it sounds like a totalitarian personality cult.

I dont remember democrats blowing this much smoke up Obama's ass after AHCA was passed. Its pretty pathetic.

Neither do I. But the Greatest President That We Have Ever Had will give us the sort of inequality that we need for the truest freedom possible -- in one great plantation.[/mocking irony]

[pbrower2a]

Trump at 30% approval in a state he got 31% in. Great poll for him. Tax Reform Bump evident.
http://news.berkeley.edu/story_jump/after-almost-a-year-how-do-californians-really-feel-about-donald-trump/

That's 30-66, his worst ever by this pollster, and only two other Presidents (Nixon as his Presidency was collapsing and Dubya in July 2008) ever got lower than Trump is now. Carter didn't fare as badly in California as the hostage situation dragged on in 1980 -- and then, California was a Republican-leaning state.

It's hardly surprising that President Trump fares badly in California.

This is a university poll with a heritage (University of California Institute of Governmental Studies), and the historical data is itself interesting even if another poll of California is superfluous. Of course I would rather see a poll of Pennsylvania, Ohio, Georgia, or Missouri.


This approval map shows  electoral votes to the states on the approval map.

Trump approval, net positive

55% or higher
50-54%
44-49%

Ties are in white.

Trump approval, net negative

46-49%
40-45%
39% or lower

But raw disapproval numbers appear instead  of electoral votes here:

Disapproval (net negative for Trump) :

55% or higher
50-54%
44-49%

Ties are in white.

(net positive for Trump)
46-49%  
41-45%
40% or lower

[pbrower2a]

How bad is this map for the President? One could go across the USA from New England to southern California two ways without going through any state in which the President has a disapproval level  under 44. You can take Interstate 90 to Cleveland, Interstate 71 to Columbus, Interstate 70 to Denver, Interstate 25 to Albuquerque, and Interstate 40 to  Barstow. Or one could go south on Interstate 95 into North Carolina, Interstate 40 to Little Rock, Interstate 30 to Dallas,  Interstates  20 and 10 to Phoenix, and pick your destination in California. The 44 rating is in Texas and the 45 is in Kansas -- and Trump has been worse in both.

[pbrower2a]

https://twitter.com/politico_chris/status/944007367049515008

The tweet reads: "Trump Job Approval in the South vs. his 2016 result in parentheses:
AR- 48% (61%)
LA- 48% (58%)
MS- 51% (58%)
AL- 53% (62%)
GA- 47% (50%)
SC- 51% (55%)
FL- 42% (49%)
NC- 43% (52%)
VA- 39% (44%)
WV- 59% (68%)
KY- 50% (63%)
MO- 48% (56%)
TX- 45% (52%)
OK- 56% (65%)
TN- 51% (61%)"

I don't know what he's sourcing or if there's any new info here, however I would like to point out that GA only has a paltry 3% shift away from Trump while TX shifted away by 7% and AR did by 13%

This data, I regret to say, will not appear upon my map. My focus is upon disapproval, a powerful measure of the unelectability of this President. Basically I use 100-DIS, an estimate of a ceiling of the Trump vote in 2020.It is extremely difficult to undo disapproval.

Turning undecided potential voters into sympathetic voters? That is why politicians campaign for re-election. Governing or legislating does not keep an approval at the level of the vote in the last election. Politicians on the average a loss of approval of about 7% from the electoral result to a typical level of approval deep into the pol's term.  For President Trump, who started the Presidency with about 46% of the national vote, it is hardly be surprising that he had gotten nationl approval ratings just under 40% by the summer. But that is not too bad enough. to ensure defeat in 2020. He could in theory campaign as effectively in 2020 as in 2016, lose by 30% margins in states like New York and California, but barely win such states as Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, and lo and behold:he will be re-elected!

But -- if he is substandard at what a President does, then his approval ratings sink even more, and no campaign can rescue his re-election bid. At this point he would clearly lose Virginia and be agonizingly close in Florida and North Carolina.  He would of course struggle in Texas.

... and this is before I see any disapproval ratings which may be even more definitive. I have some ugly numbers of Trump disapproval in Florida and North Carolina.

[pbrower2a]

Kentucky, Mason-Dixon, WAVE-TV, NBC-3, Louisville.

Approvals --

President Donald Trump, 50-43
Governor Matt Bevan (R), 45-41
Senator Rand Paul (R), 44-42
Senator Mitch McConnell (R), 30-62 (yes, you read that right!)

This approval map shows  electoral votes to the states on the approval map.

Trump approval, net positive

55% or higher
50-54%
44-49%

Ties are in white.

Trump approval, net negative

46-49%
40-45%
39% or lower

But raw disapproval numbers appear instead  of electoral votes here:

Disapproval (net negative for Trump) :

55% or higher
50-54%
44-49%

Ties are in white.

(net positive for Trump)
46-49%  
41-45%
40% or lower

[pbrower2a]

Senator Mitch McConnell (R), 30-62 (yes, you read that right!)

Wonder if ALG would go up against him again if he doesn't retire.

He's certainly vulnerable. Pushing an agenda that hurts constituents is not good for re-election.

Much more vulnerable than Rand Paul.

[pbrower2a]

Here is the 2017 map of Cook PVI.  With a 50-50 split of the popular vote, a PVI of D+6 (Connecticut) means that the Democrat can expect to get 56% of the popular vote from Connecticut and that a PVI of R+9 (Indiana) indicates that one can reasonably expect the Republican to win 59% of the popular vote in Indiana. Districts of Maine and Nebraska are shown as their Congressional districts vote for members of Congress. DC? I'm guessing that the Democrat is going to win about 90% of the vote in just about any election, so that is about D+40.  

Color and intensity will indicate the variance from a tie (ties will be in white) with  in a 50-50 election with blue for an R lean and red for a D lean. Numbers will be shown except in individual districts

int      var
2        1-4%
3        5-8%
5        9-12%
7        13-19%
9        20% or more

DC -- way out of reach for any Republican.

ME-01 D+8
ME-02 R+2

NE-01 R+11
NE-02 R+4
NE-03 R+27

(data from Wikipedia, map mine)
 I use 100-DIS as a reasonable ceiling for the Trump vote in 2020. Thus:

Lightest shades are for a raw total of votes that allows for a win with a margin of 5% or less; middle shades are for totals with allow for wins with 6 to 10% margins; deepest shades are for vote percentages that allow wins of 10% or more. Numbers are for the projected vote for Trump.  

100-DIS gives a reasonable ceiling for Trump in 2020 -- at least the most suitable one that I can think of. He may have won Iowa by nearly ten points, but he would be crushed there if an election were to be held there today. The recent poll suggests that the President has disappointed Iowa voters very much.

An assumption of a close race for President depends upon most states being close to their Cook PVI ratings. So how is that going?

Use green for a poll that diverges in favor of Trump's likely opponent, and orange for polls that  that diverge to the favor of Trump. Use light shades for divergence of 4% or less, medium for 5% to 8%, and dark shades for 9% or more.  For example, I show a ceiling of 48% for Trump in Alabama in a state that usually gives the average Republican a 14% edge in a 50-50 election. Trump would be reasonably expected to win Alabama by about 14%, but my measure (100-DIS)  suggests that Trump would fare worse by about 12% for the average Republican in a 50-50 election.  
 
  

Fourteen states with recent polls... slightly fewer than one third of all states, If you can see a 50-50 election for the Presidency in 2020, then you see something that I don't see. I cannot predict that the President's biggest losses of support are in the Midwest or South. I might expect things to be closer to normal in New York and New England except for Maine and new Hampshire, and I have nothing on the High Plains or Texas.  

[pbrower2a]

http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/data/popularity.php?pres=45&sort=time&direct=DESC&Submit=DISPLAY

Recently came across this

Trump's ratings aren't so bad as some media try to portray as "the lowest in history of such ratings". If you look at ratings of Bush 43 during the most of his 2nd term or Nixon's during Watergate there have been more or less worse numbers for previous presidents (for ex. Jimmy Carter had in the midst of 1979 below 30% rating for this short time).

Worst at this stage. This President has done little to build trust beyond his base, and his base may be eroding. Just look at the horrid polling data. Things didn't go so badly for Dubya until the wars in Afghanistan  and Iraq started to go bad, let alone the economic meltdown that caused him to be compared to Hoover.

Carter had the misfortune of being in office when one of America's firmest allies (Iran under Reza Shah Pahlavi) proved brittle, and Iranians who hated hm started to hurt American sensibilities.

Most Presidents do something to try to win support from people who did not vote  for him. Some (JFK) are far more successful than others (Obama) at that. But Obama began with a landslide win outside of the Deep South, Mountain South, Great Plains, and Mormon country and could lose about 60 electoral votes and still have a clear win.

People who voted against him in 2016 are generally firm in their contempt for him. He has since disappointed many others.

As I shall soon show, I project this President losing his bid for re-election by a level at least as bad as the elder Bush lost to Clinton, and perhaps as badly as Hoover didin 1932 or Carter in 1980, if for very different reasons. 

[pbrower2a]

ARG, New Hampshire. 26% approval, 66% disapproval.

One small state, but monstrous statistics.The state is nearly neutral in PVI, but it is about 16% away from being 50-50 in a 50-50 election.  

Minnesota. PPP.  44-53. Trump actually has a slight, if statistically insignificant improvement here. 44-53. Minnesota seems to never swing much. Trump seems to do unusually well for a Republican there. Not so many people as tenants? I would guess that if one is a tenant, Donald Trump reminds one of his landlord.  

Florida, Gravis... it's a favorability poll. Sometimes 'favorability' is asked in a manner that is practically identical to approval, but I found no link.

Here is the 2017 map of Cook PVI.  With a 50-50 split of the popular vote, a PVI of D+6 (Connecticut) means that the Democrat can expect to get 56% of the popular vote from Connecticut and that a PVI of R+9 (Indiana) indicates that one can reasonably expect the Republican to win 59% of the popular vote in Indiana. Districts of Maine and Nebraska are shown as their Congressional districts vote for members of Congress. DC? I'm guessing that the Democrat is going to win about 90% of the vote in just about any election, so that is about D+40.  

Color and intensity will indicate the variance from a tie (ties will be in white) with  in a 50-50 election with blue for an R lean and red for a D lean. Numbers will be shown except in individual districts

int      var
2        1-4%
3        5-8%
5        9-12%
7        13-19%
9        20% or more

DC -- way out of reach for any Republican.

ME-01 D+8
ME-02 R+2

NE-01 R+11
NE-02 R+4
NE-03 R+27

(data from Wikipedia, map mine)
 I use 100-DIS as a reasonable ceiling for the Trump vote in 2020. Thus:

Lightest shades are for a raw total of votes that allows for a win with a margin of 5% or less; middle shades are for totals with allow for wins with 6 to 10% margins; deepest shades are for vote percentages that allow wins of 10% or more. Numbers are for the projected vote for Trump.  

100-DIS gives a reasonable ceiling for Trump in 2020 -- at least the most suitable one that I can think of. He may have won Iowa by nearly ten points, but he would be crushed there if an election were to be held there today. The recent poll suggests that the President has disappointed Iowa voters very much.

An assumption of a close race for President depends upon most states being close to their Cook PVI ratings. So how is that going?

Use green for a poll that diverges in favor of Trump's likely opponent, and orange for polls that  that diverge to the favor of Trump. Use light shades for divergence of 4% or less, medium for 5% to 8%, and dark shades for 9% or more.  For example, I show a ceiling of 48% for Trump in Alabama in a state that usually gives the average Republican a 14% edge in a 50-50 election. Trump would be reasonably expected to win Alabama by about 14%, but my measure (100-DIS)  suggests that Trump would fare worse by about 12% for the average Republican in a 50-50 election.  
 
  

Fifteen states with recent polls... slightly fewer than one third of all states, If you can see a 50-50 election for the Presidency in 2020, then you see something that I don't see. I cannot predict that the President's biggest losses of support are in the Midwest or South. I might expect things to be closer to normal in New York and New England except for Maine and new Hampshire, and I have nothing on the High Plains or Texas.  

[pbrower2a]

Ipsos had a massive shift.

12/26-30

Approve: 40 (+3)
Disapprove 55 (-4)
 https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/

We'll see if its just the holidays or he's actually improving.

People are more charitable around the Holidays. They even drive more courteously.

Steve Bannon just released a book exposing essentially what Democrats already believe is true about Donald Trump and such people as Man-o-fraud, Flynn, Papadopoulos, Kushner, Trump Jr., etc. ... The money laundering and dealings with Russia are damning. Even FoX News can't spin that one into a triviality.

[pbrower2a]

President Trump got elected with the aid of right-wing identity politics. He also created large numbers of offended peoople. Republicans will pay for that -- if they have not yet started paying for that. (Doug Jones may simply be the result of an unusually-objectionable opponent).

This President has hurt too many persons to be re-elected in a free and fair election.