Trump approval ratings thread 1.1

[pbrower2a]

Regarding all these hopes of defeating CA GOP House representatives, is there much evidence much has changed since November? It seems many places already rejected Trump, and voted for the local GOP candidate anyway. Has disapproval in California noticeably grown since November when he received 31% of the state's vote, but most reps held on, or is the thinking that only Democrats will show up this midterm?

Without knowing much about the situation, it seems California outside of Issa's district might be a lot harder to turn than other parts of the country that have already elected Democrats in the last 12 or so years.

Michigan Republicans are likely to have a rough time in 2018. As it is, the state is heavily gerrymandered to the advantage of Republicans with mostly R+3 to R+7. In bad times such pols are vulnerable.  Should Donald Trump be as unpopular as statewide polls of Michigan so indicate, then several such Republicans will likely go down to defeat in 2018. Note well that no Democratic Representative is in any district fully to the west of the US 23 freeway corridor.

I don't have any specifics on Pennsylvania, Ohio, Indiana, or Wisconsin.   

[pbrower2a]

Gallup

Approve 37% (-2)
Disapprove 57% (+2)


Paris backlash starting to kick in??

Failure never looks good. Devious or fanatical failure looks even worse. He failed to contemplate the consequences of a departure from the Paris agreement. It would be one thing if the President were being mocked by a leader of a country usually hostile to the United States, but when it comes from the President of France...   

I think that we are close to the President's floor in approval ratings -- people who like the Trump agenda pure and hard. 

Swing states polls

http://www.newsweek.com/donald-trumps-latest-approval-ratings-election-swing-states-how-unpopular-he-619943

Those swing state results are already on my map.  We may be seeing signs of the likelihood of President Trump losing a re-election bid by legendary levels of failure, at least for a Republican nominee since the time of the Solid South.

[pbrower2a]

Gallup

Approve 37% (-2)
Disapprove 57% (+2)


Paris backlash starting to kick in??

Failure never looks good. Devious or fanatical failure looks even worse. He failed to contemplate the consequences of a departure from the Paris agreement. It would be one thing if the President were being mocked by a leader of a country usually hostile to the United States, but when it comes from the President of France...   

I think that we are close to the President's floor in approval ratings -- people who like the Trump agenda pure and hard. 

Swing states polls

http://www.newsweek.com/donald-trumps-latest-approval-ratings-election-swing-states-how-unpopular-he-619943

Those swing state results are already on my map.  We may be seeing signs of the likelihood of President Trump losing a re-election bid by legendary levels of failure, at least for a Republican nominee since the time of the Solid South.

Until we see a recession, I refuse to believe that mid-30's is his floor. But that hardly matters anyway, cuz a mid-30's number is sufficient for almost every Democratic Senator to win again in 2018 and for Dems to make large gains next year as a whole

Anything under 40% will see the Democrats retake the house and stay where they are in the Senate. I imagine that if he does still manage to keep Congress despite being unpopular, it will create the right conditions to vote him out.

There is the appearance in the last few cycles that having a hostile or divided Congress can get you reelected.

I'd laugh if the democrats retake the house and senate, pass a bunch of popular legislation, and trump signs it and becomes more popular and wins reelection.

It would be bill clinton all over again.

In view of the extreme contempt that the President has for anything liberal and his complete lack of pragmatism that looks about as likely as a tiger converting to vegetarianism. 

The only way in which the Democrats get President Trump to sign legislation that a Democratic majority in both Houses of Congress can pass is if we have a recession that forces actions contrary to the will of the President. That's the environment in which TARP was passed. ...I would not make a great deal out of a 2% swing in the Gallup polling estimate of the approval rating of the President. The typical margin of error in approval polling is about 4%.  Analysis of a 2% difference is specious except in electoral results in which even one vote can be enough to decide an electoral result. 

I'm guessing that 37% is close to his floor, and that reflects the worst that can happen when the US is not staring defeat in the face in an unpopular war, a recession is underway, or inflation is scaring people. 

[pbrower2a]

I'd laugh if the democrats retake the house and senate, pass a bunch of popular legislation, and trump signs it and becomes more popular and wins reelection.

It would be bill clinton all over again.

The 90's aren't coming back for the foreseeable future. Increasing polarization has been the norm from approximately 2000-onwards. The Democrats would've won in a crushing wave in 2018 to take back both the House and senate given the map for the latter. They'd have a lot of political capital at their disposal in such an environment and would spend most of their time investigating Trump's conflicts of interest and Russian connections before passing any kind of legislation. They'd be focused on 2020 and nothing else.

Also Trump isn't politically savvy enough to triangulate. I don't even think he knows what that word means.

The 1990s began with Democrats dominant in political life in Arkansas, Louisiana, Tennessee, and West Virginia and with Republicans dominant in Virginia. That seems to be over.

It is far too early to predict any 'crushing wave' for Democrats in 2018. Republicans still have some cards up their sleeves. It was possible after the 2016 election for Republicans to consolidate nearly complete control of the USA with a wave that would make a bare majority in the Senate into one just short of allowing the Republican Party the ability to amend the Constitution to transform America into a dominant-party system analogous to that of the People's Republic of China... that is obviously over.   

[pbrower2a]

I believe he will end up around 30% job approval for the midterms.

Should there be any economic meltdown, then he will get to or below the 30% level of approval... point being that he shows no evidence of any idea of how to lead America out of such a meltdown. His agenda will intensify the pain and create even more instability.

The Dow was probably over a safe level when Obama was approaching the end of his Presidency, supported by really-low interest rates. 

[pbrower2a]

My guess is that if you are above 45%, the median voter will probably hold their nose for you, but by 40% all the truly undecided voters have turned on you. By 30-35, people who voted for you will not vote for you again and by the time you are under 30, people will start peeling off bumper stickers. I don't think you can get under the high 20s.

51% is usually enough with which to get solidly elected, but once elected a legislator starts voting or an administrator starts administering, and as a practical matter few politicians keep their approval ratings from losing some (about 6%) from their level of the vote in the last election.

If the level of approval is in the range of 45%, then the politician usually shows why he was elected in the first place. A bit below, and things get shaky; campaigning will not be enough against the usual challenger, let alone a strong one. Around 40% approval, getting re-elected requires a combination of an unusually well-run, vigorous campaign and a weak opponent.

Far fewer people are admitting that they voted for Donald Trump. The bumper stickers are going down. Below the high twenties, we are speaking about the level of non-support that leads to coups in other countries.

[pbrower2a]

Why are so many posters here going full zero-hedge regarding predicting future disaster for the economy? What data backs that up? Job growth has slowed a bit, but that's because we are at full employment. There is no slack in the labor market. There are not enough people actively looking for jobs right now who don't have one for there to be very high monthly job growth. When the economy is at full employment, you pay attention to wage growth and GDP growth. The most recent GDP estimate for the second quarter of 2017 (april-may-june) is 4.0%, which is a sign of a steadily improving economy. If wage growth continues to improve and gdp growth remains around 3%, it's tough  to make an argument that there needs to be a rethinking for our econ policy.

It's still the Obama economy. Stock market valuations are high because of near-zero interest rates. People are invested in stocks in part because the reward for pure saving is non0existent. But let interest rates rise, and stock market valuations will plummet.

[pbrower2a]

Aloha!

Hawaii-Civil Beat Poll, May 18-24:

32% Approve
59% Disapprove

Link.

...I doubt that anyone would be surprised.

I am not using favorability polls unless the rating is uncontroversial and there is no approval poll.

The letter F shall signify a favorability poll, as the only polls that I have for Massachusetts and Oklahoma  

Even -- white



Blue, positive and 40-43%  20% saturation
............................ 44-47%  40%
............................ 48-50%  50%
............................ 51-55%  70%
............................ 56%+     90%

Red, negative and  48-50%  20% (raw approval or favorability)
..........................  44-47%  30%
..........................  40-43%  50%
..........................  35-39%  70%
.......................under  35%  90%

White - tie.
 
Colors chosen for partisan affiliation  

[pbrower2a]

I'm not calling anyone out in this thread, but overall, this thread is an example of what is wrong with American politics. We are essentially in campaign mode 24/7, much more concerned with politician numbers than with policy. Furthermore, our number 1 goal is not to deal with policy, but to defeat our political "enemies", aka the other side.

Campaign mode rightly ends on or before Inauguration Day. President Trump has been ineffective in pushing the New Feudalism that the Hard Right wants -- the "Christian and Corporate State" in which 95% of the people suffer for 2% in return for vague promises of Pie-in-the-Sky-When-You-Die. The attempt by President Trump to tout his non-existent landslide win (even if the Electoral College result is analogous to that of JFK in 1961 or Carter in 1976, neither of them using their levels of electoral wins as justification for calling for the Other Side to give up forever.

This President still acts much like a dictator, the sort who believes that the election that brings him to power ends all political debate forever. He violates so many norms of American political life  that he cannot fail to lose support.   

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With a President having an approval rating in the high thirties or lower (and this is with me assuming that today's Q poll is a transitory freak), I expect the Republicans to endure an electoral bloodbath in 2020 as their 2014 wave in the Senate is reversed. If Democrats have not turned the House in 2018, then they do it then. I expect President Trump to be seen as a catastrophic failure, after which an Obama-like President gets every chance he needs to turn America around.   

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The Right organized a virulent campaign of opposition against President Obama from practically Inauguration Day, smashing every Obama policy possible. Now we have a President acting more like Francois "Papa Doc" Duvalier (brutal dictator of Haiti who, like Trump, won with demagoguery in a free election) than like any prior President of the United States.

But something else happened:  the disappearance of the Moderate Republicans, the sorts of people who were viable alternatives to Democrats who went a bit too far on policy. Instead we have liberals and near-fascists. We get to choose between watered-down versions of Scandinavian-style Social Democrats and people who would like America to resemble Franco's Spain. You know how the latter went -- if you disliked the oppression and poverty, then either emigrate or go to Church to plead to God to give strength to accept the hideous life that you endure.   

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The Lunatic Fringe took over the Republican Party, and it now has the President as a willing accomplice.

[pbrower2a]

GOP really going to go to bat for a President with a 34% approval rating?

Gallup doesn't show that yet...

But who are you going to go to bat for if you are down 7-2 in the second inning?

[pbrower2a]

We'll see. Trump admin is currently pitching infrastructure. If a bill comes up in congress, you have a duty to vote for it if you support better infrastructure. Period.

It's likely an effort to turn public infrastructure over to private entities that exact monopoly profits out of what used to be free or modestly-priced. If that's all it is, then we might as well put up  with the crumbling infrastructure until we get the opportunity to do as well without the high price tag.

There are times in which waiting makes sense. Most often a stopgap is available. Traffic jams are unpleasant. Losing mobility because one is priced out as a policy of a monopolist who prices a service into the stratosphere is even worse.

[pbrower2a]

I don't usually make predictions of the likely direction of a poll unless it involves an event likely to change basic reality or perceptions of such. On the positive side, think of the whacking of Osama bin Laden.

If the Comey testimony does not shred any remaining opinion that Americans have of the Trump Administration, nothing can. It may be ironic that Barack Obama proved a firm enforcer of American military and diplomatic interests overseas and that Donald Trump has already proved a disaster on issues of national security. 

[pbrower2a]

Any predictions at how low Trump's approval will fall post-Comey testimony?

5% at most. His approval ratings are at the level at which he couldn't lose much support. At this point, it's a matter of reducing what little support he has. The people who love his agenda might not be concerned about obstruction of justice, possible coordination between the GOP or the Trump campaign with Russian intelligence services, or other challenges to his competence. Really it is best that approval levels do not fall to the level at which the Armed Forces intervene.

The real issue is whether the disapproval goes to the level of insisting that the President resign. We have seen no polls on resignation yet. For many conservatives the issue might not be illegality of his conduct but instead his ineffectiveness as President.

For those who are already in the "strong disapproval" category  as I have been in since he called for the Muslim ban (do not mess with freedom of religion!), how much more cause do they have to strongly disapprove of him?  In a perfect universe, the 2016  election would have  given us  a Democratic President and a majority-Democratic Senate.

[pbrower2a]

I still think it's too early to use approval ratings to predict 2018. A year and a half is an eternity in politics. History tells us that the party out of power makes inroads and low approval ratings cost seats, but the magnitude is still up in the air.

There are plenty of precedents for 2018, but conditions now are with little precedent. Democrats lost huge numbers of House and Senate seats in the two midterm years under Obama and Republicans lost huge numbers of House and Senate seats in 2006 under Dubya. But Republicans gained a little in 2002 in the wave of patriotism following 9/11.  

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People who recognized that Obama and Reagan had similar skill sets as politicians could have gotten 1984 wrong in 1982 -- but not 2012 wrong in 2010.  Incumbents win big against weak challengers like Goldwater, McGovern, and Mondale... Romney, almost everyone must now admit, did surprisingly well against Obama. Romney was a really-strong challenger. But remember that the incumbent of 2012 was an expert campaigner, a man gifted with language to a strong degree, with an improving economy, and no hint of scandal. He had one big success in foreign policy -- whacking the worst terrorist in history with the rest of the world applauding.

I look at Mitt Romney's strengths, and I see someone who would have defeated Hillary Clinton in 2016. Maybe by a smaller margin of the electoral vote, but we would have far fewer problems with him as President.

As I see it, Donald Trump is good at only one thing as President, and that is at throwing aspersions about others and telling people "My way or the Highway!" Of course, Reagan quit talking about Carter soon after the inauguration, and Obama had bigger concerns than blaming Dubya. It's just as well.

Donald Trump has a dream Congress with a unified Party willing to vote a Party line on taxes and replacing Obamacare with "run out of money and die". So far President Trump has been one of the lower achievers as President in getting legislation passed. Heck, Dubya did better.

I see Trump as a one-term President. He made promises to people and then betrayed those to whom he made those promises. He used the executive order in efforts to shortcut Congress and evade the Constitution. He is going to spend more time shaking off allegations that he won a tainted election and of obstruction of justice. President Trump has rushed into the second term of Richard Nixon without Nixon's legitimate achievements in the first term.  

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If he handles it well. But that is one gigantic qualification. But if he handles it badly, then he could have a world situation that would make the Iranian Revolution and the hostage situation in Iran look trivial by contrast. I see no reason to expect him to handle it well.

I certainly hope that Democrats don't have images of smouldering ruins of Seoul to show in campaign messages of either 2018 or 2020. That's one political asset that Democrats do not want.

A reasonably competent challenger defeats Trump in 2020. Trump has been unpopular almost from the moment of his inauguration, and he's doing nothing to make himself more popular. The base is not enough; McGovern and Mondale at least won their Party's bases.  They won almost nothing else.

[pbrower2a]

Trump at 36/59 in Gallup

Vindication DENIED.

As a general rule, if you're under investigation, changing your story about every two hours makes you look guilty as hell. Trump was "totally vindicated" by Comey's testimony. Except for the parts of the testimony were Comey called Trump a liar and implied that he had committed obstruction of justice, which happened to be untrue. Despite those lies, Comey was still a "leaker", meaning that he probably had leaked lies to the public. Except that he didn't, because Trump's own son went public and announced that Comey was indeed fired because of the Russia investigation. Except that that didn't constituted obstruction of justice, for some reason. Confused yet?

That is how the FBI and many FBI-trained cops establish guilt. So in a homicide the 'person of interest' says "It didn't happen", "it's new to me",  "must be suicide", "self-defense", and "he deserved it anyway".  One of those five could be true, but only one of those could be true.

J. Edgar Hoover said that the one thing that marked criminals is that they are liars. To be sure, not all liars are criminals, but even without a crime, lying is easy to detect, and it shatters whatever credibility one has.

People who contradict themselves are either liars who tell what they know is false or fools who have no idea of how wrong they are.   

The truth is far simpler and easier to document or prove than is even inadvertent falsehood.

[pbrower2a]

Anyone remember what happened in February-April 2006 to bring W down into the 30s for approvals?

It was a slow erosion of a once-high approval rating -- probably over the conduct of the Second Gulf War, secondarily over an economy showing signs of collapse (mass foreclosures and some bank failures). 

[pbrower2a]

Aloha!

Hawaii-Civil Beat Poll, May 18-24:

32% Approve
59% Disapprove

Link.

...I doubt that anyone would be surprised.

I am not using favorability polls unless the rating is uncontroversial and there is no approval poll.

The letter F shall signify a favorability poll, as the only polls that I have for Massachusetts and Oklahoma

Even -- white



Blue, positive and 40-43%  20% saturation
............................ 44-47%  40%
............................ 48-50%  50%
............................ 51-55%  70%
............................ 56%+     90%

Red, negative and  48-50%  20% (raw approval or favorability)
..........................  44-47%  30%
..........................  40-43%  50%
..........................  35-39%  70%
.......................under  35%  90%

White - tie.
 
Colors chosen for partisan affiliation  

The map has an F on Arizona too.

I recognize that. I was trying to decide whether to show the very old poll of Arizona... and I decided to keep it.

President Trump has just gotten two polls of sub-30 approval one each in California and New Jersey. Neither changes the map.

[pbrower2a]

West Virginia still holding strong for Trump

Trump approval: 62/31

Some of us can remember when West Virginia was one of the most stalwart states in voting for Democrats at the federal level  and when Virginia was one of the most stalwart states in voting for Republicans at the federal level. I was shocked to see West Virginia go for Dubya in a close election in 2000 and Virginia go to Obama in what looked like a close election in 2008... close until the electoral results flooded in from the West Coast.  

Texas Tribune/YouGov - TX: 43/51

Second poll to have Trump underwater in Texas

Same pollster in a state in which polling is tricky. Educated white Texans have been voting heavily R in contrast to the trend in other states. But if that comes to an end, Texas could give some unpleasant surprises to the Republican Party. Texas is probably the difference between 400 and 440 electoral votes for a Democratic nominee for President.

Figuring that Democrats will unify against Trump, I can see one way in which republicans lose the Lone Star State: as nationwide polling shows Donald Trump with disapproval ratings going near or even past 60%, one can see some very conservative voters who would never vote for any liberal getting extremely hostile to President Trump for reasons other than his political agenda. Foreign policy is obvious enough. Corruption and a despotic style of management?

Donald Trump will need Texas to avoid losing a landslide. The Democratic nominee of 2020 will be able to win without Texas.


So how could President Trump fare badly in Texas?

1. President Trump is not from Texas.  He's a city-slicker from New York City.

2. Texas could be drifting D due to demographics: the fast-growing Mexican-American part of the electorate. It is possible that President Trump's "Make America Great Again" was interpreted by many Mexican-Americans to imply "without us". This may explain the weakest Republican performance for its Presidential nominee since 1996.

3. Texas now fares better than most Southern states in measures of education. Education  is a bane to demagogues, and this could maul President Trump in a re-election bid in 2020.    
.................... 

I am not using favorability polls unless the rating is uncontroversial and there is no approval poll.

The letter F shall signify a favorability poll, as the only polls that I have for Arizona,  Massachusetts and Oklahoma  

Even -- white



Blue, positive and 40-43%  20% saturation
............................ 44-47%  40%
............................ 48-50%  50%
............................ 51-55%  70%
............................ 56%+     90%

Red, negative and  48-50%  20% (raw approval or favorability)
..........................  44-47%  30%
..........................  40-43%  50%
..........................  35-39%  70%
.......................under  35%  90%

White - tie.
 
Colors chosen for partisan affiliation  

[pbrower2a]

I still think it's too early to use approval ratings to predict 2018. A year and a half is an eternity in politics. History tells us that the party out of power makes inroads and low approval ratings cost seats, but the magnitude is still up in the air.

There are plenty of precedents for 2018, but conditions now are with little precedent. Democrats lost huge numbers of House and Senate seats in the two midterm years under Obama and Republicans lost huge numbers of House and Senate seats in 2006 under Dubya. But Republicans gained a little in 2002 in the wave of patriotism following 9/11.  

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People who recognized that Obama and Reagan had similar skill sets as politicians could have gotten 1984 wrong in 1982 -- but not 2012 wrong in 2010.  Incumbents win big against weak challengers like Goldwater, McGovern, and Mondale... Romney, almost everyone must now admit, did surprisingly well against Obama. Romney was a really-strong challenger. But remember that the incumbent of 2012 was an expert campaigner, a man gifted with language to a strong degree, with an improving economy, and no hint of scandal. He had one big success in foreign policy -- whacking the worst terrorist in history with the rest of the world applauding.

I look at Mitt Romney's strengths, and I see someone who would have defeated Hillary Clinton in 2016. Maybe by a smaller margin of the electoral vote, but we would have far fewer problems with him as President.

As I see it, Donald Trump is good at only one thing as President, and that is at throwing aspersions about others and telling people "My way or the Highway!" Of course, Reagan quit talking about Carter soon after the inauguration, and Obama had bigger concerns than blaming Dubya. It's just as well.

Donald Trump has a dream Congress with a unified Party willing to vote a Party line on taxes and replacing Obamacare with "run out of money and die". So far President Trump has been one of the lower achievers as President in getting legislation passed. Heck, Dubya did better.

I see Trump as a one-term President. He made promises to people and then betrayed those to whom he made those promises. President Trump has rushed into the second term of Richard Nixon without Nixon's legitimate achievements in the first term.  

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If he handles it well. But that is one gigantic qualification. But if he handles it badly, then he could have a world situation that would make the Iranian Revolution and the hostage situation in Iran look trivial by contrast. I see no reason to expect him to handle it well.

I certainly hope that Democrats don't have images of smouldering ruins of Seoul to show in campaign messages of either 2018 or 2020. That's one political asset that Democrats do not want.

A reasonably competent challenger defeats Trump in 2020. Trump has been unpopular almost from the moment of his inauguration, and he's doing nothing to make himself more popular. The He used the executive order in efforts to shortcut Congress and evade the Constitution. He is going to spend more time shaking off allegations that he won a tainted election and of obstruction of justice. base is not enough; McGovern and Mondale at least won their Party's bases.  They won almost nothing else.

I was for him unwinding previous executive orders but not creating new ones of his own. The election was not tainted he won the election. I think you have a point that he shouldn't have said  anything about dropping the Flynn Investigation though.

Putting an  end to executive orders of the previous President is legitimate no matter how sturdy the pretext the prior President had. The election could be tainted even if his electoral behavior is legally acceptable -- if one can show that foreigners interfered in the election to the detriment of those who formally lost the election. We have precedents for dealing with electoral conduct even if the politician is clean of it. We have no provisions for the validity of an election influenced by foreign agents. We do not let foreigners or foreign companies make political contributions.

But this said, conduct after the election, if questionable, puts the Presidency at risk at the least for loss in the next election.  

...Executive orders have their use, as in making decisions in the role of Commander-in-Chief in wartime or in transferring public (often military) resources in the wake of disasters. They can be used to make decisions in which statute leaves some leeway and the judgment call is by the President. But executive orders that bypass Congress or have suspect validity on Constitutional merit are simply wrong.

[pbrower2a]

Even a broken clock like Rasmussen is right once ...

But the recent special elections in KS and MT have shown that Trump isn't anywhere near 50% approval right now. Support for Republicans is down by 10-15% on average compared with election night 2016 and Trump only got 46% then.

38-40% approval is more likely right now.

The biggest potential for drops in Trump (and GOP) support are in such states as Kansas and Montana which have usually seemed "Solid R". Republicans may still desire the promises of regulatory relief, tax cuts, evisceration of unions, and privatization, but much of what the President Trump does suggests "this is not what it means to be a Republican". 

The attempt on the life of Rep. Scalise could be a "rally around the Party" event; as the political heel heals,  that effect will fade.

[pbrower2a]

I'm not responding to any poll in particular, but there is one critical point of data I've noticed. It's the relationship between strongly approve versus strongly disapprove. President Obama's approval ratings during his midterms weren't catastrophically bad. What I do remember being horrendously bad was the proportion between strongly approve versus strongly disapprove. In 2010, I can recall that number being about 2-1 negative for the President in terms of strong approval/disapproval. If Donald Trump is still President in October 2018 and his strong approval/disapproval is anything around 25/50, Congressional Republicans are going to face a historical catastrophe.

A mature democracy generally decides its controversies when the solution has slightly more than 50% approval. As an illustration, once support for same-sex marriage reached 53% or so, it prevailed. Leading politicians who thought it a good thing advocated it strongly.  Approval in the range of 60% might be possible in a political order in which something other than democracy had recently prevailed, as in Spain about 1980 or most countries in central and Balkan Europe in the early 1990s. In such cases there are plenty of unpopular and unworkable realities that a legislature can undo quickly through legislation.

On the one hand, people in mature democracies take much for granted -- such as that government is something other than patronage, that corruption is abnormal, and that people who have done nothing wrong are not pariahs.   

We may be casting off the maturity of democracy for something allegedly new and vibrant. We as a people have made a grievous mistake.   

[pbrower2a]

New poll: Trump underwater in Alaska:

Alaska -

Trump's approval - 44/48 (-4)
Lisa Murkowski - 35/43 (-8)
Trumpcare - 29/53 (-24)
Voting intention of Murkowski to Generic D - 39/31 (+8)
If Murkowski votes for AHCA, are you likely to vote for or against her - 22/49 (-27)


Nevada -

Trump's approval - 44/50 (-6)
Dean Heller - 31/44 (-13)
Trumpcare - 31/51 (-20)
Voting intention of Heller to Generic D - 39/46 (-7)
If Heller votes for AHCA, are you likely to vote for or against her - 27/45 (-18)

West Virginia -

Trump's approval - 55/36 (+19)
Shelly Capito - 42/33(+9)
Trumpcare - 35/11 (-6)
Voting intention of Shelly Capito to Generic D - 48/35 (+13)
If Heller votes for AHCA, are you likely to vote for or against her - 29/36 (-7)

http://www.savemycare.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/AlaskaResults.pdf
https://www.scribd.com/document/351703448/NevadaResults-06-14-17
http://www.savemycare.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/WestVirginiaResults.pdf

....................  

First polls of any kind of Alaska and Nevada, apparently by an advocacy group -- but I understand that these polls were taken by PPP. Yes, I know that Alaska is a tough state to poll from outside the state because few pollsters can have such options as "Press '3' for Aleut" or "Press '4' for Inuit".

I am not using favorability polls unless the rating is uncontroversial and there is no approval poll.

The letter F shall signify a favorability poll, as the only polls that I have for Arizona,  Massachusetts and Oklahoma  

Even -- white



Blue, positive and 40-43%  20% saturation
............................ 44-47%  40%
............................ 48-50%  50%
............................ 51-55%  70%
............................ 56%+     90%

Red, negative and  48-50%  20% (raw approval or favorability)
..........................  44-47%  30%
..........................  40-43%  50%
..........................  35-39%  70%
.......................under  35%  90%

White - tie.
 
Colors chosen for partisan affiliation  

[pbrower2a]

Quinnipiac, Virginia

Approval for President Trump surges to 40%!

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Well, that change sis still within the margin of error.

https://poll.qu.edu/virginia/release-detail?ReleaseID=2468

Trump hurts any Republican politician.


The letter F shall signify a favorability poll, as the only polls that I have for Arizona,  Massachusetts and Oklahoma  

Even -- white



Blue, positive and 40-43%  20% saturation
............................ 44-47%  40%
............................ 48-50%  50%
............................ 51-55%  70%
............................ 56%+     90%

Red, negative and  48-50%  20% (raw approval or favorability)
..........................  44-47%  30%
..........................  40-43%  50%
..........................  35-39%  70%
.......................under  35%  90%

White - tie.
 
Colors chosen for partisan affiliation  

[pbrower2a]

Republicans won the special elections on Tuesday.

Any legislative or electoral success of the GOP will cause Trump support to rise. Victory creates its own moral support even for despicable causes. 

[pbrower2a]

Gallup (June 22nd)

Approve 42% (+3)
Disapprove 54% (-2)

-

This seems like one of his quickest comebacks in approvals so far.

Gallup:

39(-3)/55(+1)

Rip

No, "blip".