pbrower2a
Atlas Star
Posts: 26,854
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« on: August 02, 2016, 04:02:40 AM » |
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Donald Trump is the worst cultural match of any Republican for Utah by any Republican nominee for President since at least the New Deal Era. Sure, Goldwater lost Utah, but mostly because of his scary stances on nuclear warfare. Being to the Left of George McGovern in foreign policy (Mormons are patriots without being Patriots) will hurt the Republican ticket in November at the very top even if I expect the Republicans to sweep statewide offices. Goldwater did not have investments in casinos, offenses to the sensibilities of devout Mormons not only for gambling itself (Utah has no legal gambling) but also for bawdy shows and rampant boozing and smoking.
(Sure, I am a liberal, but if I had to choose between living in Nevada or Utah, I would pick Utah, as I have "Mormon lungs" and a "Mormon liver" even if I am not a Mormon. I do not smoke and I drink rarely and never much at any time).
Democrats have successfully co-opted Mormon (Latter-Day Saints or LDS) respect for intact families and formal education that Eisenhower co-opted in the early 1950s, transforming Utah from a usually-Democratic state to a rock-solid Republican state. Probably because devout Mormons avoid tobacco and alcohol, Utah residents can avoid spending as much money on public health as other Americans and can keep taxes low and public services at modest cost. Mormons take care of themselves, and non-Mormons assume that habit if they are to find life tolerable in Utah.
Donald Trump can lose this state, especially if the LDS hierarchy turns on him... which has not happened but would be no great surprise if it did. Count on Mitt Romney seconding the endorsement of the non=Republican nominee for which the LDS hierarchy calls upon Mormons to vote. Mormons believe in the ideal of intact families even if those families are not Mormons (Mormon missionaries will show up at the front door some time or another); the LDS made a reasonable response to same-sex couples after the Supreme Court ruled against state bans on same-sex marriage. Again, Mormons believe in intact marriages even if such marriages are same-sex.
The incumbent Republican nominee for the US Senate, not at all a liberal, can win re-election 70-30 while Donald Trump loses, whether to Hillary Clinton or to Gary Johnson. Either way, Donald Trump loses Utah's six electoral votes, six electoral votes that he can hardly afford to lose. Democrats have not had to offend Mormon sensibilities to lose all but one Presidential election since 1948 -- but Republicans have always had a nominee compatible with Mormon values. That does not hold.
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