Larger margin, same amount of EV.
Much so. I can imagine her picking up North Carolina and Arizona but losing Florida... basically a wash.
Her wins will generally be by margins similar to those of Obama in 2012 (getting the sorts of blowout wins in some states that Obama won in 2008 generally requires a Reagan-like victory), but her losses will be much closer.
She is less toxic to the Mountain and Deep South than Obama was, which means that she will not lose by margins similar to those of "Walter McGovern" or "George Mondale".
The six states I see most likely to flip to Hillary Clinton in 2016 from Romney in 2012 are in this order:
North Carolina
Arizona
Georgia
Indiana
Missouri
Kansas
...That I have Kansas sixth shows how unlikely it is that Hillary Clinton will even approach 400 electoral votes. That figures a swift meltdown of the Kansas Republican Party with a mass defection of moderates to the Democratic Party.
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