Kaine vs. Kasich

[pbrower2a]

Kasich would trounce Kaine.

In short, what Maxy said.

Now, Kaine could lead in the summer, similar to how Dukakis did in 1988, but Kasich would ultimately improve his performance as election day neared. I actually feel it is more likely that Kasich could manage to hold a lead for most of 2016. I think the debates would be a mixed bag, since neither Kasich nor Kaine seem particularly electrifying.

This is what I see as being a likely outcome:

A contest between two pols of similar abilities suggests a close race all the way unless one of the nominees has a complete meltdown and the other plays the election close to the vest by taking no high-risk chances.

Kaine at the least should win his own state due to the Favorite Son effect. I see no reason to believe that the Republicans are making inroads into states that they have not won since 1996. I see no reason for them to win either Nevada or New Mexico. 

Kasich does win Ohio due to the Favorite Son effect.

Colorado, Iowa, and New Hampshire will have people biting their nails into the morning.

[pbrower2a]

Doesn't Kaine waffle on abortion? He has some vaguely, not-party line viewpoint on it.

He's basically on the same page as Joe Biden personally disagrees with abortion but is pro-choice.

I mean does anybody not "personally disagree" with abortion?  I feel like everyone agrees it's terrible, some just think it has to be a choice made by the woman.

That is in roughly the same position as disliking amputations but occasionally finding them necessary at times.

[pbrower2a]

This would be close.

I think Kaine is a slightly superior politician. He has won statewide office three times, winning the bigger races by better margins than Kasich in Ohio in 2010. Republicans need to win Ohio, while Democrats can afford to lose Virginia.

Kaine's weakness is that Democrats have held the White House for the last two terms. As a Senator/ former DNC chair, he can't exactly run as an outsider.

I'd give Kasich the edge due to the tendency of parties to do worse in the third term.

Kasich/ Martinez- 282 Electoral Votes
Kaine/ Klobuchar- 256 Electoral Votes

Explain to me how does Kaine lose Pennsylvania I'd argue he's a much better fit for PA than Obama ever was I'd think he improves among whites there and Eastern PA.

Kaine's in a worse position than Obama was. He's  a candidate who lacks the advantage of incumbency running to get his party another term in the White House.

I'd also imagine decreased African American turnout without Obama on the ballot. In 2012, African Americans were 13% of the voters (slightly higher than their share of the population) and 93% went for Obama.

Kasich would also have an advantage in Pennsylvania coming from a neighboring state. Even if Kaine's a better fit for PA than Obama, Kasich's a better fit for the state than Romney, McCain or George W Bush.

Neighboring state?

In 2008 Barack Obama of course won Illinois by an overwhelming majority, Iowa and Wisconsin by decisive majorities, barely won Indiana, barely lost Missouri, and lost Kentucky by a huge margin. Arkansas and Tennessee come close to Illinois on their extremes, and Obama lost both handily. Technically, Michigan has a water boundary with Illinois, and Obama won it by a margin in the high teens. 

John McCain won Arizona decisively, won Utah by a huge margin, but lost Colorado (at a point)  decisively and lost California, Nevada, and New Mexico by huge margins.

Bill Clinton never won Mississippi, Oklahoma, or Texas. He should have been a good cultural match for Texas.

[pbrower2a]

Both are boring old white men, exactly what we need again , but I think Kasich would win pretty narrowly, or it would be a tied map.

Colorado, Wisconsin, and Florida would probably be the three closest states, respectively.

That makes more sense -- with Scott Walker rigging the election in Wisconsin.