Yikes. If these numbers hold up, they may need to give up on Florida if Bush doesn't run....and that would be disastrous.
GOP has no chance without FL. I suspect that the big money and establishment GOP types are going to start putting a lot of pressure on Bush to run, at least as a Plan B. if Christie continues to implode.
Actually it is slight.
If the Democratic nominee wins no state that neither Gore nor Kerry ever won but does win Florida... but Iowa, Michigan, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin are undecided, the Democratic nominee still has a chance by winning any of these combinations:
1. PA MI WI
2. PA MI NM NH
3. PA MI IA NM
4. PA MI IA NH
5. PA WI IA NM NH
The Democratic nominee must win Pennsylvania, as the Republican gets 252 electoral votes locked up.
Here are the ways in which a Republican wins:
1. PA
2. MI IA
3. MI NH
4. MI WI
5. WI IA NH
6 MI NM
7. WI IA NM
8. WI NM NH
Such looks reasonably good, according to the calculator of
www.270towin.com, but unless something goes catastrophically wrong for the Democrat those states are mostly long-shot propositions for a Republican nominee. That is asking for a lot.
