FL-Quinnipiac: Clinton leads all Republicans by at least 6 points

[Mr. Morden]

Quinnipiac poll of Florida:

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/florida/release-detail?ReleaseID=2001

Clinton 49%
Bush 43%

Clinton 51%
Rubio 41%

Clinton 53%
Paul 38%

Clinton 51%
Christie 35%

Clinton 52%
Ryan 39%

Clinton 54%
Cruz 34%

[Tender Branson]

Christie does 12 points worse than in their last poll.

This is about what PPP twittered in their FL poll that was never released.

[Mr. Morden]

Do you think each of the following would make a good president or not?
yes/no %

Clinton 58/38% for +20%
Bush 50/40% for +10%
Rubio 39/46% for -7%
Ryan 36/45% for -9%
Christie 35/45% for -10%
Paul 31/44% for -13%
Cruz 23/44% for -21%
Biden 29/62% for -33%

[Tender Branson]

Do you think each of the following would make a good president or not?
yes/no %

Clinton 58/38% for +20%
Bush 50/40% for +10%
Rubio 39/46% for -7%
Ryan 36/45% for -9%
Christie 35/45% for -10%
Paul 31/44% for -13%
Cruz 23/44% for -21%
Biden 29/62% for -33%

Christie has been downsized to "Generic Republican" ...

[Mr. Morden]

Again, even in his weakened state, Christie still has decent crossover support with Democrats, at least compared to the other Republicans.  20% of Dems say Christie would make a good president, with Bush being the only other Republican with a higher #.  But Christie's #s with Republicans aren't good enough to make up the difference.

[IceSpear]

Do you think each of the following would make a good president or not?
yes/no %

Clinton 58/38% for +20%
Bush 50/40% for +10%
Rubio 39/46% for -7%
Ryan 36/45% for -9%
Christie 35/45% for -10%
Paul 31/44% for -13%
Cruz 23/44% for -21%
Biden 29/62% for -33%

Yikes at Biden. When did he become so disliked?

Not that I'd ever support him for president or anything...maybe I'm answering my own question here.

[IceSpear]

Also, these numbers are pretty scary if you're a Republican, considering Florida is supposed to be their easiest state to win back...

[morgieb]

Yikes. If these numbers hold up, they may need to give up on Florida if Bush doesn't run....and that would be disastrous.

[Likely Voter]

GOP has no chance without FL. I suspect that the big money and establishment GOP types are going to start putting a lot of pressure on Bush to run, at least as a Plan B. if Christie continues to implode.

[IceSpear]

Yikes. If these numbers hold up, they may need to give up on Florida if Bush doesn't run....and that would be disastrous.

That would never happen, since Florida is a must win state for the GOP. They'd just pretend it was competitive like McCain did with PA in 2008.

[pbrower2a]

Yikes. If these numbers hold up, they may need to give up on Florida if Bush doesn't run....and that would be disastrous.

GOP has no chance without FL. I suspect that the big money and establishment GOP types are going to start putting a lot of pressure on Bush to run, at least as a Plan B. if Christie continues to implode.

Actually it is slight.

If the Democratic nominee wins no state that neither Gore nor Kerry ever won but does win Florida... but Iowa, Michigan, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin are undecided, the Democratic nominee still has a chance by winning any of these combinations:



1. PA MI WI
   
2. PA MI NM NH

3. PA MI IA NM
   
4. PA MI IA NH

5. PA WI IA NM NH

The Democratic nominee must win Pennsylvania, as the Republican gets 252 electoral votes locked up.

Here are the ways in which a Republican wins:

1. PA
   
2. MI IA
   
3. MI NH

4. MI WI
   
5. WI IA NH
   
6  MI NM
   
7. WI IA NM
   
8. WI NM NH

Such looks reasonably good, according to the calculator of www.270towin.com, but unless something goes catastrophically wrong for the Democrat those states are mostly long-shot propositions for a Republican nominee.  That is asking for a lot.  
   
   





 

[Likely Voter]

I have goofed around with 270towin and sure you can click on enough states to make it happen but the GOP isn't going to win MI and/or PA before winning FL, at least not in 2016...maybe a few cycles down the road but not yet.

FL is the bedrock of a GOP path to victory and when the establishment/big money types start thinking about picking their guy they are not going to start off on a basis of a hail mary win in PA and/or MI.

[dmmidmi]

In order to win the Presidency without winning Florida, the GOP would have to carry a collection of states they haven't won in decades.

Florida is absolutely essential to the GOP's path to 270 in 2016. They lose Florida, they lose period.

[Lief 🗽]

If Obama had done as well with Florida whites as even Kerry had, he would have easily won the state. Clinton might have slightly less black support, but I don't think she'll do any worse with Hispanics and she'll obviously do much better with whites. Florida is a good state for her.

[pbrower2a]

In order to win the Presidency without winning Florida, the GOP would have to carry a collection of states they haven't won in decades.

Florida is absolutely essential to the GOP's path to 270 in 2016. They lose Florida, they lose period.

This is about like saying that the Democratic nominee will have a chance by winning Texas. The chance is practically zero. Not zero, but really close.

[HAnnA MArin County]

LOL @ Ted Cruz. Please, Tea Party, nominate him.

I could see her doing slightly better than Obama in Florida. It's a state she won in 2008 (yes, I know that Obama opted to take his name of the ballot and so therefore it wasn't a "real" election) and has many of the demographics in her favor. If Hispanics/Latinos support her in as large numbers as they did in 2008, she could run up the numbers in Orlando, although I'm not sure how well she would do with the Cubans.

[pbrower2a]

LOL @ Ted Cruz. Please, Tea Party, nominate him.

I could see her doing slightly better than Obama in Florida. It's a state she won in 2008 (yes, I know that Obama opted to take his name of the ballot and so therefore it wasn't a "real" election) and has many of the demographics in her favor. If Hispanics/Latinos support her in as large numbers as they did in 2008, she could run up the numbers in Orlando, although I'm not sure how well she would do with the Cubans.

Cuban-Americans are practically a swing vote. Probably such reflects that the younger ones no longer have hatred of Fidel Castro as the focus of their politics.

I am not a Cuban-American, and I don't know any Cuban-Americans. Those who know about and hate Fidel Castro might have found these images disconcerting: