FL-Tarrance Group (R): Obama leads Romney by 1

[pbrower2a]

It's a statistical tie. If the election of 2012 were to boil down to one state and Florida were the only state to make a difference, then Mitt Romney would still have a chance to win as Dubya did in 2000.

The problem with that condition is that I can easily say the same of Arizona, Missouri, Ohio, New Hampshire, North Carolina, and Virginia. (Basically Colorado and Nevada seem like they are slipping away from the GOP due to demographics). If Mitt Romney wins Florida by 1500 votes and either Ohio or Virginia by 7000, then President Obama wins.

Romney many ways to lose, and any loss of Florida loses the election. But I can say the same of Arizona, Missouri, New Hampshire, North Carolina, or Virginia. The Obama campaign can play a sort of political chess in which it forces the opposition to go reckless, as in 2008. 

[pbrower2a]

This is surprising considering it seems like I'm seeing a Romney ad every 5 minutes.

Republican pols may becoming a more difficult "sell" in Florida... in view of the Governor.

[pbrower2a]

This is surprising considering it seems like I'm seeing a Romney ad every 5 minutes.

Republican pols may becoming a more difficult "sell" in Florida... in view of the Governor.

That efffect is minimal except at the very extremes.  And if it does become an issue, don't forget the GOP has McDonnell with 2/3rds approval in VA.

But the Republican nominee will have to win both Florida and Virginia. A 50-50 chance in both states as "independent events" means a 25% chance of winning both states. A 80-20 chance to win one state and an 80-20 chance of losing the other means a 16% chance of winning both states. A 90-10 split in opposite directions leads to a 9% chance of winning both states.