It is way too early to say much about most states that voted for Obama last time other than 5-10 of them when you consider that Obama's approval rating is about ten points lower right now than it was for Jimmy Carter in January 1980.
My prediction: Romney is no George W. Bush--and does not even have ties with Washington, let alone Bush, in the way that McCain did--so I think this "blue state America/red state America" nonsense could be coming to an abrupt end.
Tempting as it might be to compare Presidents Obama and Carter on the desire that President Obama fail to get re-elected like Jimmy Carter... it is also unwise. Carter got a boost in approval ratings in the wake of the hostage situation in Iran as Americans rallied behind a President that they wanted to see succeed. Carter failed. If anything seems to be happening it is that the Republicans are becoming a pack of Mordred-like character who will hand a win by default to the President.
I am well aware that the Hard Right would like a "strong" response to Iranian threats to the US and its friends, at least as I saw someone call for a "strong" (really, belligerent) response from someone not as "weak" as President Obama by some quack on FoX News Channel. For a quick lesson on the appropriateness of belligerent responses... belligerency is a common characteristic of bar patrons. People who initiate bellicosity often end up with broken bones for fights whose causes they can't explain after the fact.
With a couple of drunks belligerency leads to a broken jaw against which someone broke some fingers. With hot-headed national leaders the consequences are far more severe. Mahmood Ahmedinedjad is one hot-head too many on the international scene.
If you want to see my earliest prediction... then for now I predict that President Obama will lose about 5% of any margin by which he won any state by more than 15%, about 4% in any state that he won by between 10% and 14% in 2008, and about 3% of the vote that he got in any state that he won by a margin of 4% or more. A 53-45 split of Maine would fit that model. That model says that he still wins Colorado, Ohio, and Virginia. That's about all that you need to know about my model that predicts 2012.
