Who do you think Romney is likely to choose from?
I think the list includes Lamar Alexander, Marco Rubio, Jim DeMint, Saxby Chambliss, Richard Burr, Jeff Sessions, John Cornyn, Lindsey Graham and Haley Barbour. John Thune would be perfect if he were from the South, but since he is not I think he is out of the equation (Same goes for Mitch Daniels since Romney almost surely needs a southerner). Rick Perry, Newt Gingrich and Rand Paul (Ron Paul's son) are long-shots.
These are the dozen that I think are most likely. What do you think?
I also believe that choosing DeMint would probably be most effective at appeasing disgruntled southerners, social conservatives and Tea Partiers alike. Plus, if Romney guaranteed DeMint the VP slot in return for an endorsement prior to the South Carolina primary, that would probably be sufficient to end the presidential race in South Carolina. Hard to see Romney's victory in New Hampshire followed by a DeMint endorsement in South Carolina not leading to a win in South Carolina and therefore the nomination shortly thereafter.
The Romney/DeMint ticket provides ideological harmony, geographical balance, and the ticket has a nice ring to it. The candidates look like a natural fit when they stand side-by-side. By all accounts, they are good friends who also have an exceptional professional relationship (DeMint endorsed Romney in 2008, and actually convinced Romney to run back in 2007). Furthermore, DeMint is more than capable of holding his own against Biden in a debate. For these reasons, I think Romney/DeMint is probably the best choice for victory in 2012.
If he should choose an unabashed right-winger, then he loses almost all advantage that he has over Rick Perry in the swing states of the North and near-North. Except in freak years like 2010, such right-wingers don't win in Northern states. One good question: could any of the candidates be elected in Ohio?
I didn't ask "would"; I asked "can". Southern reactionaries have huge cultural baggage in the North; arguably that cultural baggage is as big for Southern reactionaries as it is for d@mnyankee liberals in the Deep South and the Mountain South.
President Obama has less of a chance of winning any of the Clinton-but-not-Obama states (Arkansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Tennessee, and West Virginia) than he has of winning Texas -- and that applies to Mississippi and Alabama, too. If Mitt Romney has to make an effort to win any one of those states by choosing a VP candidate from one of those states, then he has lost. Saxby Chambliss? One might as well resurrect the late Jesse Helms. Georgia can be in contention, but if it is, then so are a bunch of other states that the Republicans absolutely need.
Bob McDonnell is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2016 in the event of President Obama winning a second term. He will need a record as a shrewd and inoffensive administrator; for him a VP nomination is just too risky.
I would be careful about the Senatorial and Gubernatorial winners of 2010. Senator Ayotte is out of the question as a resident of New Hampshire, the state that Mitt Romney considers his domicile. Sure, Dick Cheney could change his legal residence from Texas to Wyoming easily; Kelly Ayotte can't. Senators Rubio (FL), Toomey (PA), Portman (OH), Kirk (IL), and Johnson (WI), if chosen as VP running mates, all open Senate seats that Democrats would have good chances of winning 'back' in special elections. They may have avoided controversy so far that keep them from being troublesome in a Presidential election... but the Democrats will be looking for payback.
Here's my crazy pick: Charlie Crist.
